Swine Flu

[Egapal]

This is my last post on this topic.

[QUOTE=asplundii;1051477]Human life does not exist in a void nor do humans on an individual or collective basis. The actions and interactions take place on the planet and so the grand scheme of the planet must apply...[quote]

Yeah yeah yeah. You are making points that do not counter my points or support your own. I stipulate to the above. I am arguing your initial point that the odds of mutating into a more deadly form are lower do to selective pressure. I fundamentally disagree. [Mutation is random. selective pressure is about the success of those mutations toward the goal of keeping the strain alive. A mutation that makes the strain less likely to survive in the long term is more of a concern for us as humans because us dying is one thing that could make the particular mutated strain less viable.] Unless you disagree with that statement right there I am not sure what you are getting at.

Again I tell you that your example is just one means by which selective pressure can push an organism toward avirulence but it is not the sole means. There is always more than one way to skin a cat. That is why we have convergence.

Again I stipulate to your above point. However I am talking about one way to skin a cat, mentioning another is not really progressing the argument. Did I mention we could all die by a alien attack or by a collision from space. See I hadn't brought it up cause its not relevant.

The odds of a hyperflu spontaneously evolving a spreading to every person on the planet via the jumbo jet vector all before patient zero dies are astronomically small (approaching zero.) The first pocket is often the largest but once it is recognized that something really nasty is out there the fire break system is quite effective at shutting the spread down.

I again stipulate to your above statement. What are the odds of hyperflu spontaneously evolving and spreading to anyone on the planet that I care about. That's what I and most people are concerned with.

Never claimed a 25% death rate was not a big deal. But I honestly doubt we will see something as infective as the flu with a 25% or greater death rate make it to pandemic levels.

I honestly doubt that as well. I am not wearing a mask right now or anything. I am saying it could happen, and it would be a big deal, and the chance of it happening is pretty high up there on the list of things that can ruin a perfectly good month.

So? It does not matter what the host is, the process is the same.

Well for starters I won't cry as much if my snake or cat dies as I will if my mom or even cousin were to die.

Obviously it sucks for me personally if I die but my death, on a population scale, is likely for the betterment of the species as a whole cause I take the virulent strain to the grave with me.

You are killing me. The majority of your posts are assuming that I don't understand the process. I get it really. From my very first post my entire point has been.

The problem is that the scientific community is worried for good reason. Cross species diseases can be particularly dangerous. They have proven how good they are at mutating and in some cases humans have limited or no immunity. So I am all for government and science getting ready but then the news gets involved and people panic. The public knowing everything is not always a good thing.

I also totally agree with the sentiment that has been mentioned in this thread many times. Tens of thousands of death certificates every year have FLU written on them.

Although the "Swine Flu" was not contracted from swine its still being debated whether or not it was spread to a swine, at least as far as I know.

Diseases tend to be very host specific and when they make the jump 99.999% of the time it is a dead end jump because the new host is not a fit environment for the disease.

What exactly did you mean when you said the new host is not a fit environment? Could the host be a human in this scenario and could "not fit" mean dies to easy. Cause if both of those things are true then you are hardly helping the case you appear to be trying to make.

That is not going to happen. I do not have time to even begin on the math involved but to get an agent with a 100% infection rate of 50% of the global population with an ungodly long asymptomatic infectious phase followed by a sudden rapid death would take some type of engineering. A type of engineering that currently does not exist.

You already stated this wasn't your field. Unless the math equals zero I hardly see how you can assert its not going to happen. It doesn't have to have a 100% infection rate. It doesn't even need an ungodly long asymptomatic infectious phase, and "sudden rapid death" is a relative term.

Just for giggles whats the math on a disease with H1N1 infection rates, an H1N1 asymptomatic infectious phase and a mortality rate of around 5%. In 1918 it killed close to 1% of the humans on the planet. Now you may not be concerned with what I consider to be the very real, not 0%, chance of over 50 million people dying. Then again you may be concerned, its hard for me to tell. My point is that I am concerned, I don't think I am alone in my concern, and I think that its not a bad idea for governments to be prepared. I do however completely agree that the hysteria over the this latest outbreak was out of proportion with the facts.