Quote Originally Posted by Egapal View Post
Your logic applies to the grande scheme of the planet not the grande scheme of human life.
Human life does not exist in a void nor do humans on an individual or collective basis. The actions and interactions take place on the planet and so the grand scheme of the planet must apply...

I don't mean to be condescending but, because that's not how selective pressure works.
Quite the contrary that is exactly how selective pressure works.

Selective pressure toward avirulence is based on the idea that deadly strains will die out when they kill their hosts. So if we all die then so will the deadly strain. If we don't all die then there is no selective pressure toward avirulence.
Again I tell you that your example is just one means by which selective pressure can push an organism toward avirulence but it is not the sole means. There is always more than one way to skin a cat. That is why we have convergence.

Yeah not disputing that. The problem is that the size of the pocket is based on how long it takes to kill the host and how noticeable the symptoms are. A more deadly version of the flu could become world wide being transmitted by humans aboard aircraft.
The odds of a hyperflu spontaneously evolving a spreading to every person on the planet via the jumbo jet vector all before patient zero dies are astronomically small (approaching zero.) The first pocket is often the largest but once it is recognized that something really nasty is out there the fire break system is quite effective at shutting the spread down.

Of course we won't all die but 25% of us dieing is kind of a big deal.
Never claimed a 25% death rate was not a big deal. But I honestly doubt we will see something as infective as the flu with a 25% or greater death rate make it to pandemic levels.

Because in this scenario we are the hosts.
So? It does not matter what the host is, the process is the same.

Not you personally, you as in humans. Ok so imagine where you live is the pocket in question. You see if everyone where you live dies then sure you are right. Future generations will be lucky that the disease got less deadly due to selective pressure, but you are dead in this scenario. Thats bad.
Obviously it sucks for me personally if I die but my death, on a population scale, is likely for the betterment of the species as a whole cause I take the virulent strain to the grave with me.

lets assume for the sake of the argument that I understand the concepts you are talking about. I am not talking about the disease 20 years from now. I am not worried about catching the disease you are talking about. I am worried about the weird mutant disease that only lasts a month but manages to take out 50% of humans on the planet in that month.
That is not going to happen. I do not have time to even begin on the math involved but to get an agent with a 100% infection rate of 50% of the global population with an ungodly long asymptomatic infectious phase followed by a sudden rapid death would take some type of engineering. A type of engineering that currently does not exist.