Question about genetics guarantee

[Stewart_Reptiles]

How does a new breeder can gain reputation if people keeps getting their animals from Reputable breeders?

i.e. How does a new breeder sell their hatchlings if nobody wants to deal with him/her because he/she doesnt have reputation or is well known?

Building your reputation is not all about prior sales, a strong online presence that will show that you are knowledgeable will help a great deal.

You can tell a lot about people who post online

[distaff]

How does a new breeder can gain reputation if people keeps getting their animals from Reputable breeders?

i.e. How does a new breeder sell their hatchlings if nobody wants to deal with him/her because he/she doesnt have reputation or is well known?

You don't have to be widely known, but you want to cultivate the best impression possible with anyone who contacts you about your animals. In a word, TRUST. Advertise with good properly lit photos, with the snake on a clean surface (no old sheds, no poop!!). Build a decent website, You tube videos, face book page - or just have a reasonably professionally sounding voice mail message. Good information and social skills go a LONG way. Also, healthy well bred animals have a "bloom" to them. Provide carefully kept records with each sale.

[fLako0aGuiiLaR]

Building your reputation is not all about prior sales, a strong online presence that will show that you are knowledgeable will help a great deal.

You can tell a lot about people who post online

You don't have to be widely known, but you want to cultivate the best impression possible with anyone who contacts you about your animals. In a word, TRUST. Advertise with good properly lit photos, with the snake on a clean surface (no old sheds, no poop!!). Build a decent website, You tube videos, face book page - or just have a reasonably professionally sounding voice mail message. Good information and social skills go a LONG way. Also, healthy well bred animals have a "bloom" to them. Provide carefully kept records with each sale.

Thanks for the advice, this is very helpful for people that is starting in this industry

[Eric Alan]

Building your reputation is not all about prior sales, a strong online presence that will show that you are knowledgeable will help a great deal.

You can tell a lot about people who post online

This x 1000! A small-scale new breeder can be incredibly reputable just as easily as a large-scale established breeder. Of course, the opposite is true as well. Thankfully, there are plenty of avenues to try and determine which are which.

[wolfy-hound]

Agreed on the reputable appearance and online presence. But also, make contacts and build a base of other reputable breeders. Be personable and ask lots of questions and find out about their collections and projects.

Don't... repeat... don't go to shows and be "that guy" who strolls around badmouthing other people, belittling animals at tables, lowballing people on their prices and then badmouthing them if they turn down the offers. Don't call yourself things like "best breeder around" or try to sound more knowledgable than you are. Don't ever say things like "I'll undercut any price!".

Being a good breeder is not just about having great animals, but also about being a part of the community. Even if it's just online, or even if it's just your local community... it's important.

[paulh]

.... How many clutches/eggs does it take to disprove a het?

The formula is p to the nth power (pⁿ) < 0.01.
p = probability of not getting what you want from a single egg
n = number of eggs

Here's the easy way to calculate the formula. Using the calculator in Windows' Accessories folder, choose view --> scientific. Then enter the value of p, press the x^y key, enter a value for n, and hit the <ENTER> key.

Example 1: You have a normal looking ball python that could be heterozygous albino. You mate it to an albino ball python. You want albinos, and you do not want normal looking babies. The probability of getting an albino is 0.5, and the probability of getting a normal looking baby (p) is 0.5.

Multiply 0.5 by 0.5 for as many times as it takes to get a number less than 0.01.
In this case, 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 (or 0.5 to the seventh power) = 0.008 (rounded). In other words, seven normal looking snakes and no albino snakes has less than a 0.01 probability of occurring by chance.

Example 2: You have a normal looking ball python that could be heterozygous albino. You mate it to a normal looking, het albino ball python. You want albinos, and you do not want normal looking babies. The probability of getting an albino is 0.25, and the probability of getting a normal looking baby (p) is 0.75.

Multiply 0.75 by 0.75 for as many times as it takes to get a number less than 0.01. In this case, 0.75 to the seventeenth power = 0.008 (rounded). In other words, seventeen normal looking snakes and no albino snakes has less than a 0.01 probability of occurring by chance.

The above assumes that albinos and nonalbinos have an equal chance of hatching. This is not always true. Or you may have plain bad luck. But it is the place to start, and almost all of the time it will give the right answer.

[FranklinMorphs]

The formula is p to the nth power (pⁿ) < 0.01.
p = probability of not getting what you want from a single egg
n = number of eggs

Here's the easy way to calculate the formula. Using the calculator in Windows' Accessories folder, choose view --> scientific. Then enter the value of p, press the x^y key, enter a value for n, and hit the <ENTER> key.

Example 1: You have a normal looking ball python that could be heterozygous albino. You mate it to an albino ball python. You want albinos, and you do not want normal looking babies. The probability of getting an albino is 0.5, and the probability of getting a normal looking baby (p) is 0.5.

Multiply 0.5 by 0.5 for as many times as it takes to get a number less than 0.01.
In this case, 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 (or 0.5 to the seventh power) = 0.008 (rounded). In other words, seven normal looking snakes and no albino snakes has less than a 0.01 probability of occurring by chance.

Example 2: You have a normal looking ball python that could be heterozygous albino. You mate it to a normal looking, het albino ball python. You want albinos, and you do not want normal looking babies. The probability of getting an albino is 0.25, and the probability of getting a normal looking baby (p) is 0.75.

Multiply 0.75 by 0.75 for as many times as it takes to get a number less than 0.01. In this case, 0.75 to the seventeenth power = 0.008 (rounded). In other words, seventeen normal looking snakes and no albino snakes has less than a 0.01 probability of occurring by chance.

The above assumes that albinos and nonalbinos have an equal chance of hatching. This is not always true. Or you may have plain bad luck. But it is the place to start, and almost all of the time it will give the right answer.

Nice to see another match nerd, but I just want to point out, this equation is only getting you to 99% certainty. While that's pretty good. Nature just doesn't always follow math. IMHO, HetxHet is three clutches of at least 6 viable eggs(only one more egg than purported above by maths). HetxHom is one clutch of at least 6 viable eggs where the snake in question is known absolutely to be a parent. In the case of males, it must be obvious that there was no retained sperm preventing the male in question from seeing the female. In the case of a female, if she's a virgin, first clutch should be good, if she's not, again, it needs to be obvious that she did not retain sperm from the previous year, regardless of who bred her.

This brings up another question in my mind. I've seen several times lately of people underselling their snakes. Not enough blushing on a possible firefly, call it a pastel and sell yourself short. Hopefully the person getting it is happy with that. I know I would be. But what do you do in this case. Refund, take the snake back and re-sell for more? I'm perfectly happy with the sale being final if I undersell myself, but it could be an interesting conundrum, especailly if someone is working on something like a vanilla cream or vanilla scream project. Or You have BELs with extra genes.

[Albert Clark]

Reputable breeders offer genetics guarantee on their animals especially hets. My question is how is guarantee enforced? What if your customer has really bad odds with a het? How many clutches/eggs does it take to disprove a het?

Well, it's always customer friendly and reassuring to provide a written guarantee for a breeders hets. Pictures of the parentage and any locks seems to be appreciated as well. Of course the verbal backing of the genetics should serve as a solidifying addition to the paperwork and photos. Photographing of the particular het usually is a help to both buyer and seller. The breeder should identify the percentage of the het genetics as well. A paper trail is a main way a breeder can show a customer that he stands by what he is saying and selling.

[paulh]

Nice to see another match nerd, but I just want to point out, this equation is only getting you to 99% certainty. While that's pretty good. Nature just doesn't always follow math. IMHO, HetxHet is three clutches of at least 6 viable eggs(only one more egg than purported above by maths). HetxHom is one clutch of at least 6 viable eggs where the snake in question is known absolutely to be a parent. In the case of males, it must be obvious that there was no retained sperm preventing the male in question from seeing the female. In the case of a female, if she's a virgin, first clutch should be good, if she's not, again, it needs to be obvious that she did not retain sperm from the previous year, regardless of who bred her.

This brings up another question in my mind. I've seen several times lately of people underselling their snakes. Not enough blushing on a possible firefly, call it a pastel and sell yourself short. Hopefully the person getting it is happy with that. I know I would be. But what do you do in this case. Refund, take the snake back and re-sell for more? I'm perfectly happy with the sale being final if I undersell myself, but it could be an interesting conundrum, especailly if someone is working on something like a vanilla cream or vanilla scream project. Or You have BELs with extra genes.

It is true that math and nature do not always match up. However, the OP wanted to know how many clutches/eggs it takes to disprove a het. The actual answer is that a breeding test cannot produce 100% certainty that a possible het is not a het. That leads to the question, "How many clutches/eggs are required to get to an acceptable level of probability?" 99% probability is generally considered an acceptable place to stop a breeding test. More eggs simply adds places to the right of the decimal point without ever getting to 100%.

IMO, more people undersell their snakes than is likely to be believed. I once bred a pied ringneck dove from two non-pieds. On one side of the pedigree I had to go back five generations to find a pied ancestor. I just goes to show that a recessive gene can pass down several generations without the human owner knowing it. Even dominant and codominant genes can do this. [A condition (most commonly inherited in an autosomal dominant manner) is said to have complete penetrance if clinical symptoms are present in all individuals who have the disease-causing mutation, and to have reduced or incomplete penetrance if clinical symptoms are not always present in individuals who have the disease-causing mutation. http://ghr.nlm.nih.gov/glossary=penetrance] It is all part of the fog surrounding breeding.

[wolfy-hound]

That math is amazing. I never would have thought about it in that way and it makes absolute sense now in my head. Thank you.

Also, yes, you can't ever guarantee something with live critters, but generally speaking, I agree with the math. You can't really ever say for certain sure, just that it's extremely unlikely at a point. Glitches just happen once in a great while, no matter what we think should happen.