Quote Originally Posted by Pythonfriend View Post
the thing about mathematical logic is.... it works.


you start with a 50% possible het, get 4 eggs, all 4 are misses. Now its no longer a 50% possible het, its a 6,25% possible het.


When faced with a 6,25% possible het piebald, would you breed a piebald to it? Would you pay more for a 6,25% possible het than you would for a normal female?

I wouldnt want to produce another clutch with a 93.75% chance for total disappointment and only het hatchlings. I would, already at this early point, breed something like a lemonblast male to it, for a clutch with a high chance of getting good stuff, and raise one of the four 100% het pied hatchlings.

of course you can go up to 7 eggs or 10 eggs. But i would strongly recommend against producing 2 or 3 clutches.... after 2 clutches you will likely be above 10 eggs, and then there is only a 1 in 1000 chance left that its a het after all. A third clutch would really be a waste, you would be better off using some multi-gene codominant male for the third clutch.

There is not much to be gained from turning a 0,1% possible het into a 0,001% possible het, and in 999 out of 1000 cases thats all you will get if you already got 10 misses, but continue anyway.


Yes maybe 4 is too early, i would lose patience, others have more patience. But after 10 eggs its pretty much over.

The thing about all of this is that the Poss het is still Poss het until proven to be het. Just because you miss the odds 10000000000000000 times does not reduce the possibility of it being het at all. It just means you had really bad luck. In the past I have had a pastel male to 5 females and hatched exactly 0 pastels. So based off of what you said he could not be a pastel when in fact he was. It is called a 50% Poss het because it has a 50% chance of being het for what ever and a 50% chance of being normal. The standard come back would be that I gave an example of a co-dom and hets are recessive but the odds are still exactly the same no matter what. Pastel x normal by the math is 50% normals and 50% pastels. A pied x het pied is 50% pied and 50% het pied. That means that there are 2 showing the gene and 2 looking normal just like with the pastel.