the thing about mathematical logic is.... it works.


you start with a 50% possible het, get 4 eggs, all 4 are misses. Now its no longer a 50% possible het, its a 6,25% possible het.


When faced with a 6,25% possible het piebald, would you breed a piebald to it? Would you pay more for a 6,25% possible het than you would for a normal female?

I wouldnt want to produce another clutch with a 93.75% chance for total disappointment and only het hatchlings. I would, already at this early point, breed something like a lemonblast male to it, for a clutch with a high chance of getting good stuff, and raise one of the four 100% het pied hatchlings.

of course you can go up to 7 eggs or 10 eggs. But i would strongly recommend against producing 2 or 3 clutches.... after 2 clutches you will likely be above 10 eggs, and then there is only a 1 in 1000 chance left that its a het after all. A third clutch would really be a waste, you would be better off using some multi-gene codominant male for the third clutch.

There is not much to be gained from turning a 0,1% possible het into a 0,001% possible het, and in 999 out of 1000 cases thats all you will get if you already got 10 misses, but continue anyway.


Yes maybe 4 is too early, i would lose patience, others have more patience. But after 10 eggs its pretty much over.