pythonfriend I understand what you are getting at.
What you are arguing is the chance of it inheriting the gene vs the chance that it actually did inherit the gene. Two different things.
The chance of it inheriting the gene is 50% or 66%. That does not change. This is how people market their animals, and even after breeding trails, the chance of it inheriting the gene is still 50% or 66%.
However with information on breeding trails, you can calculate the chance that it actually has the gene, independent of the previous information. The 50%, 66% doesn't effect this what so ever or even matter much after you have breeding trail info imo. Explanation of this is all over this thread, so nothing more for me to say. but even if after 50 eggs, the chance that it had to inherit the gene was always 50%/66%.
While we may market snakes as 50% or 66%, I think it would be a little dishonest to sell a snake just as a 50%/66% het after seeing it not prove out after eggs. The breeding trail info should be included with the snake. While it would never be wrong that the chance the snake had of inheriting the gene is 50% or 66%, the chance of it having the gene is different with more information.
For everyone using the "it sometimes takes multiple clutches to prove out" this is why there is ALWAYS a chance. No where do we say there is a 0% chance the snake is het, just that chance gets reduced with every egg not proving out. In the end the numbers dont matter, snakes are het or not. but the numbers help us make decisions. The OP was basically asking at what number do you make the decision give up hope on it being het. Your decision has 0% effect on it actually being het or not.
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