Wow so I decided to take another look at this thread and wow. Having read your latest response, why won't you accept that points I am conceding. I completely accept that the odds of a more deadly disease surviving long are lower than a less deadly disease surviving long or a more deadly disease burning out quickly.

I really don't understand how you disagree with my statement.

A mutation that makes the strain less likely to survive in the long term is more of a concern for us as humans because us dying is one thing that could make the particular mutated strain less viable.
Help me to understand by choosing the more concerning scenario. Again I am not talking odds. If one happens how concerned are you. Now if the other one happens how concerned. Now which was more. Again not which is more likely. I concede that a is more likely.

a) A disease mutates into a less deadly form and subsequently infects 1 million people.

b) A disease mutates into a more deadly form and subsequently infects 1 million people.

I chose b. If you choose b then how is it that you don't agree with the quoted statement. I don't know where you got all that other stuff about assumptions I made. I understand the concept of localized infections that burn themselves out. I am not talking about those. We can not have a discussion unless we agree on what we are discussing.

As for me being condescending when bring up aliens and space collisions. I am being condescending because you are not listening. How can you say I obviously missed your point when I am saying that I accept your point with open arms. I accept your point regarding negative selective pressure. My point is that one scenario is more concerning to me than another. You are talking about odds of those scenarios. I accept your odds. What do you have to say about my concerns.

Before the media driven hype I was just as concerned about my mother dying from a superflu as I am now. I am not hyped up, I am a well informed individual. If we were talking about getting hit by a semi I would say thats a real concern and the results are devastating. As a precaution I would recommend not stepping out in front of Semi's. I would further recommend being sure that anything you do step out in front of is not a semi.

Crying when mom dies vs snake. Yes we must go to extremes. Thats what I am talking about. I am right now talking about extremes. I won't cry if your mother or cousin cry unless either my mom or cousin die for the same reason. See thats what I am talking about.

All of which is moot because we are (or at least I am) talking about a process and how it occurs, be it in humans or goats or fish or whatever and not how it personally affects us.
Ok so here is the problem. I agree with you regarding the process. I am making points about how it affects us. So yeah we aren't talking about the same thing. I agree with you. What do you think about what I am saying?

I am talking about how a less likely scenario is more concerning to me personally as well as humans as a whole than the more likely scenario that you keep talking about.

Yup, I think the video applies because it demonstrates a less widespread version of a more deadly virus. You say the video doesn't apply because what I am talking about is even less likely than what is in the video. I agree with the odds entirely.

Ok so this brings me to what you say here.

Yes, yes, in my rush because of lack of time I did not state that while anything is possible the odds against somethings are so small as to render them insignificant... Given enough time anything can happen.
I disagree with your assertion that the odds are so low as to make them insignificant. Lets put it in poker terms. Lets say you have a great hand and there is only one hand that can beat yours. The chances that your opponent has that had are slim to non. Your choice is simple, you bet the farm and chances are you win big. If on the other hand your opponent has that one better hand, you are devastated. Now, all I am saying is the man who makes the bet knowing he could lose is wise and the person who makes the bet thinking he can't lose is a fool. My field is server administration. When we look at risk analysis we put an event in a box. The box has 4 sides.

1. Devastating if it happens.
2. Going to happen often.
3. Not a big deal if it happens.
4. Never going to happen.

We worry the most about things near the 1,2 corner and work our way toward the 3,4 corner.

A super bug wiping out a significant portion of humanity lands close to the 1,4 corner. I am not trying to say that its in the 1,2 corner. I am just saying that the only things that we should blow off are the things in the 3,4 corner.