Proving a morph, kind of..?

Ok, so theoretically ...how many times / clutches would it take before you could say that a snake did NOT carry a certain gene?

Some of you know what I'm talking avout already I'm sure, but say I breed my enchi (that everyone believes is a pastel enchi) to a normal girl, got 0 pastels, and more that looked like him, and normals of course. Some could easily say that the ones looking like him were also pastel enchis. So how many pairings / clutches do you think would be sufficient to show he is not, and just bright? (Obviously, if he throws a pastel my brain debate is done)

Thanks :)

I would be somewhat convinced after one pairing and almost completely convinced after 2. Its a 25% chance of producing a pastel so its not an extremely rare odd.

I agree, 2 is pretty good. I'd prolly do 3 if I was really sure the morph is what I think it is. Did you get any enchis that seemed more like regular enchis? Or did all the enchis come out like him?

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Originally Posted by Zombie

I agree, 2 is pretty good. I'd prolly do 3 if I was really sure the morph is what I think it is. Did you get any enchis that seemed more like regular enchis? Or did all the enchis come out like him?

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I'm speculating ;) He's not even HOME yet...Oye...

But, he has kept me up many nights wondering!

When the time comes, I just want to have enough girls to *hopefully* prove one way or the other. (Assuming all three go, lay good eggs etc)I think 3 is good too, was just wondering what others thought.

Don't worry..when the time comes his pairing / pics will be EVERYWHERE! And I will update like a madwoman...because it will be my first go at breeding ;)

1 time if it throws a singe gene pastel ;)

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Originally Posted by RoseyReps

So how many pairings / clutches do you think would be sufficient to show he is not, and just bright? (Obviously, if he throws a pastel my brain debate is done)

Thanks :)

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Originally Posted by snakesRkewl

1 time if it throws a singe gene pastel ;)

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I already said that Jerry :P

I would love to see a pastel pop out first go round, I just want to know what he is for sure if he doesn't throw one first clutch lol.

I know, I know...pastel enchi :P ;)

Well when you pair it to that lesser pastel and you get super pastel lesser Enchis you'll know(;

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Originally Posted by Ridinandreptiles

Well when you pair it to that lesser pastel and you get super pastel lesser Enchis you'll know(;

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Unfortunately she wont be ready until the 13/14 season :(
Can't wait for that pairing!

Here is the formula you want.

P^n > 0.99

P = probability of a single egg not producing a pastel
^ = to the power
n = number of eggs.

The probability of producing a pastel is 25% = 0.25. So P = 0.75.

By a little trial and error with my calculator, n = 17. So you hatch 17 eggs. Every baby is normal, enchi, bright enchi or something other than a pastel. Then you have a 99.2% probability that the bright enchi parent is not a pastel enchi. More eggs raises the probability, but 99% is a good cutoff point.

If one or more pastels hatch, then you can stop before 17 eggs, of course.

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Originally Posted by paulh

Here is the formula you want.

P^n > 0.99

P = probability of a single egg not producing a pastel
^ = to the power
n = number of eggs.

The probability of producing a pastel is 25% = 0.25. So P = 0.75.

By a little trial and error with my calculator, n = 17. So you hatch 17 eggs. Every baby is normal, enchi, bright enchi or something other than a pastel. Then you have a 99.2% probability that the bright enchi parent is not a pastel enchi. More eggs raises the probability, but 99% is a good cutoff point.

If one or more pastels hatch, then you can stop before 17 eggs, of course.

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Thank you! That was what I was looking for :)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by paulh

Here is the formula you want.

P^n > 0.99

P = probability of a single egg not producing a pastel
^ = to the power
n = number of eggs.

The probability of producing a pastel is 25% = 0.25. So P = 0.75.

By a little trial and error with my calculator, n = 17. So you hatch 17 eggs. Every baby is normal, enchi, bright enchi or something other than a pastel. Then you have a 99.2% probability that the bright enchi parent is not a pastel enchi. More eggs raises the probability, but 99% is a good cutoff point.

If one or more pastels hatch, then you can stop before 17 eggs, of course.

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Thanks for posting. I remember a similar formula from Bio classes.

Yea that works for dominant gene but....
What if Your "dinker" is Recessive ?? I took like 5-6 years ??? for BHB to Prove Sunset....???

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Originally Posted by Aes_Sidhe

Yea that works for dominant gene but....
What if Your "dinker" is Recessive ?? I took like 5-6 years ??? for BHB to Prove Sunset....???

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Very true. But my question was specifically about already proven incomplete dominates :D

I would think a possible recessive / dinker would take at least 4 years to prove out. All depends on how many girls you get from the first pairings (assuming your dinker was a boy.) Girl dinkers would take longer to prove I suspect.

I thought I read somewhere that brain admitted to dropping the ball a bit with the sunset, as in wasn't pushing proving it out after it didn't show up as incomplete dom? I could be way off in la la land on that one.

Edit: think I misinterpreted the first part of the post, disregard my second sentence. >_<