Pricing - Ball Python Market

[muddoc]

It is not a prediction just my thoughts. I also agree with you that we have only scratched the surface of what is to come. That being said as more animals and morphs are produced it will only make todays "it" snake less valuable. Mr. Bailey I respect you for the business person that you are and I was not wanting to argue with anyone over resessive and co-dom pricing. We both know, as others do, that resessive animals hold there value more than co-dom or dominate animals and I should have made myself more clear but I did not have a page to go over all the variables. My comment was just an overall view of what I thought was to come.

No harm no foul. I think this has been one of the mildestly (is that a word) debated market pricing thread that I have ever seen on any board or forum. I always enjoy reading these type of threads but rarely comment myself. I did not mean to sound harsh, if that was how you took, but as you stated, it was unclear that you were talking more on a dominantly inhereted market.

I also would just like to agree with Josh, that this market will steadily drive towards a more selective breeding approach, if you would like to sell "breeders" vs. "pets". Over time buyers hoping to start a breeding project are going to be more discriminating.

What a good thread,

[ctrlfreq]

All of these are valid points, but you are missing one thing: you are looking at this from a breeder's perspective.

No, I was speaking from the high-end buyer's perspective. The 1 in 16 odds are relevant, even in the "pet" market, because it means the animals are in shorter supply, and worth more to both those who possess them, and those who want to possess them. Just look at the pet market for pure breed dogs and cats, and it quickly becomes evident that the fewer of a particular animal produced, the harder it is to acquire said animal, and the more it costs. An example of this would be our pet Turkish Van (a piebald cat), who cost us almost a grand. Try getting a pet quality Bengal, or any number of rare dog breeds, and you'll quickly see the pattern.

They want to put a morph in a display cage in their living room and the whole notion of an animal being worth more because of 1 in 16 odds versus 1 in 8 odds is completely irrelevent.

Maybe for your lower to middle class buyers, but for the Land Rover crowd, those odds will be exactly what attracts them to the rare animals over those more readily available, and those who are able to supply them will be able to get what they ask for the animals.

It is the look of the animal and the demand for it that will set the price, not the specific genetics. Look at albinos: one recessive gene, 15 years later it is still above $800 on average.

The specific genetics are what determine the supply though, and supply combined with demand is what sets the price. Albinos are, at this point, in such great supply that the market can bear $800. Pied Albino Clowns (or any 1-in-16+ animal for that matter) on the other hand will never be in great supply, and will most likely be a much more visually appealing animal than the Albinos. As such, it is very unlikely you will ever see the market price of double and triple recessives anywhere near that of the simple recessives.

Talk to "everyday" type people at shows. They are very impressed with ball pythons but can't justify setting up shop in their garage just to own morphs.

The same can be said for any market that has yet to jump the chasm that stands between the early adopters and the general adoption of the product. "Everyday" people are never the initial targets of high end products or services, and once the chasm is crossed, they will still not realistically be the target of the high end (ie. double+ recessive designers) animals for the same reason Ferarris and Land Rovers aren't marketed to Joe Bob Middle-Class.

Right now, the BP industry is in it's early adopter phase, which means there is a lot of room for independent activity on the ground floor, which we're all taking advantage of. Once (if) ball pythons become generally accepted as a "pet" animal, the majority of owners will no longer be in it to breed or produce, but rather just to have an interesting family pet or status symbol.

[monk90222]

Maybe for your lower to middle class buyers, but for the Land Rover crowd, those odds will be exactly what attracts them to the rare animals over those more readily available, and those who are able to supply them will be able to get what they ask for the animals.

The only problem is that for the most part, the customers that are purchasing Ball Pythons are "lower to middle class". The "Land Rover" crowd still wants teacup Yorkies. I think it will be quite some time until you see Paris Hilton with a creamsicle ball python draped around her neck going into the Gucci store on 5th ave in NYC or the head of a BP sticking out of Britney's purse...

[elevatethis]

The specific genetics are what determine the supply though, and supply combined with demand is what sets the price. Albinos are, at this point, in such great supply that the market can bear $800. Pied Albino Clowns (or any 1-in-16+ animal for that matter) on the other hand will never be in great supply, and will most likely be a much more visually appealing animal than the Albinos. As such, it is very unlikely you will ever see the market price of double and triple recessives anywhere near that of the simple recessives.

I thought that the number of breeding producing them is what determines the supply, though. You seem to be talking about a snapshot of "right now," though. I am thinking further down the road. I personally feel like the brightly colored animals...those that bear bright whites, yellow, orange, etc, will be the most sought after by everyday people. Trust me, I've showed a few layman type people my collection and they were unphased by a granite, but were doing backflips over the albino. You bet that breeders will breed what buyers want, and regardess of genetics, these animals will be produced for sale in one way or another, and as we've seen in recent times, that there will be someone willing to part with it for less than the other guy producing them.

The same can be said for any market that has yet to jump the chasm that stands between the early adopters and the general adoption of the product. "Everyday" people are never the initial targets of high end products or services, and once the chasm is crossed, they will still not realistically be the target of the high end (ie. double+ recessive designers) animals for the same reason Ferarris and Land Rovers aren't marketed to Joe Bob Middle-Class.

The only issue I can think of here is that you are assuming that the ball python market will be large enough that you can develop market segments like that...its already such a small niche market and reptiles just aren't sold like that and probably never will be. Web, shows, and exhibitions are the only current avenues for customers to shop and I don't ever see anyone opening some kind of Gucci-like store or show that only contains rare, high-end ball pythons. Often times it is the rare, high end ball pythons that are the drawing force the brings people to a table, but then perhaps they end up buying one of the lower-priced mutations instead.

[Sputnik]

We'll find out in 5 years from now, nothing is certain, but speculation!

[Gloryhound]

We'll find out in 5 years from now, nothing is certain, but speculation!

This is about the only way to look at it. Also those getting into it on the business end of the spectrum need to do their own market analisys and make a determination as to what they want/plan to do from that. Different people will look at the variables and risks differently. Those who like the product are more likely to look more favorable on these variables than those who do not. Ralph Davis dropped $22,000 dollars at a show to get into breeding high end pythons almost 10 years ago. I wonder how many people thought he was nuts! If you think you are going to get anywhere in 5-10 years starting out with a $2000.00 dollar investment then you are probably going to be a hobbiest for the rest of your time in it. My wife and I have dropped over 10K this year and will probably be up to 15K before the end of the year and not have sold a thing yet! Probably add another 10K to 15K next year and we may have something (5K or so worth) to sell by the end of that year. My parents think we are crazy for getting into this, but we like our ball pythons and see a lot of future potential in not only high end morphs, but basic and low end morph ball pythons as pets in general. We enjoy it and it is something we talk about together. Our game plan really doesn't call for the business to make us rich, but it does give us the possibility of creating some really cool morphs and having the satisfaction that we did it! Although we would like to get the business to the point that it is self sufficient at some point at least!

[West Coast Jungle]

Supply and demand.

The supply has increased and prices have come down.

You get a show on snake morphs on Animal Planet or NGC and your demand could take off and prices would follow. The value of ghosts had dropped only to make a strong comeback when the combos became so impressive.

Snakebytes, Reptile Radio and other herp media outlets are trying to do just that. To show these animals to the American people show everybody what we are doing and how amazing they are.

This will play into the mix in the future.


I went to a show years ago to look at beardies and was fascinated by BP's. The more people become aware and desire these animals the more demand there will be. Look at the reptile industry as a whole, it has grown hand over fist in the last 10-20 years. People like Steve Irwin and other animal shows have had alot to do with this along with the growth of the internet. Still the majority of Americans probably wouldn't even consider owning a reptile let alone a snake but show them some albinos, pieds and bumble bees and watch them go WOW, those are cool.

Anything could happen, meanwhile do it because you like snakes not to get rich quick or it will get old fast.

[kurgan]

One thing that could certainly shake things up in the future would be genetic studies of ball morphs and the ability to (reasonably) cheaply genotype the animals. No 3 year waits to prove out a possible het, just a quick stool or blood sample to the lab and an answer in a week or two.

[monk90222]

Anything could happen, meanwhile do it because you like snakes not to get rich quick or it will get old fast.

That is the best statement in this thread. Many people see the dollar signs in these morphs, but do not realize the incredible amounts of time and money it takes to properly care for these great animals. Cleaning snake poop for the next 30 years is the reality of the ball business.

One thing that could certainly shake things up in the future would be genetic studies of ball morphs and the ability to (reasonably) cheaply genotype the animals. No 3 year waits to prove out a possible het, just a quick stool or blood sample to the lab and an answer in a week or two.

That would be cool and all, but I think that would take the fun out of the hobby. I'm sure nothing feels better than proving out a possible het, the old fashioned way!

[kurgan]

That would be cool and all, but I think that would take the fun out of the hobby. I'm sure nothing feels better than proving out a possible het, the old fashioned way!

I've no experience in snake breeding but FWIW I think I agree, just as I'd rather not know the gender of a baby before it was born.
However at the high end BP morphs are a business as well as a hobby and I can't imagine professional breeders feeling quite the same.