I've been thinking about this for awhile now. I don't think anyone has mentioned the elephant in the room yet. Could it be the flexwatt itself? I know that some strips of flexwatt aren't as consistent as others are. It is possible that your probe is on a "cool" spot of the heat tape, and the majority of the rest of the flexwatt is actually hotter. This would explain why 2 thermostats had the same issue and why your thermometer/temp gun also read the same.
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