Hate to perpetuate the statistics argument here but I think I can shed some light on the math at play here, lets look at the normal x lesser and the odds of calculating getting AT LEAST one lesser in a 4 egg clutch
First, you need to define the exact question here. If looking at any 1 egg being a lesser the odds are 25% as mentioned may times.
If the question is what are the odds of getting a lesser in a clutch that is where the statistics come into play. It is true that the genetics of one egg won't have any affect on the next egg but that's not what we're talking about. What is in question here is the odds of finding at least 1 lesser in the clutch.
So for the math, lets say you have a clutch with N eggs. The probability of finding a lesser = 1 - (probability of NOT finding a lesser) = 1 - (0.75 ^ N). For a clutch of 4 eggs, P(1 lesser) = 1 - (0.75 ^ 4) = 1 - 0.42 = 58%. You can do similar calculations for the odds of finding an exact number of lessers in a clutch but the calculation isn't as simple.
Think of it like dice, roll 1 die and the odds of hitting a 6 is 1:6. If you roll 3 die though, the odds of hitting a 6 is no longer 1:6. Oddly it also isn't 1:2 as you might initially think, but that's where the above calculation comes from
Eggs are no different, 1 egg may be 1:4 but your chances of finding at least 1 increases as you have more eggs.
Back on topic, I'm a huge fan of the Super Mojave BELs and once I'm in a position to start breeding this will be on my shortlist of goals. I've always been a BEL fan and love the breeding options of the Super Mojave as others mentioned back on pages 1 and 2.
Originally Posted by sullitf
Hate to perpetuate the statistics argument here but I think I can shed some light on the math at play here, lets look at the normal x lesser and the odds of calculating getting AT LEAST one lesser in a 4 egg clutch
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