Quote Originally Posted by coreydelong View Post
Each egg has a 1:4 odds of being a BEL on it's own merit independant of any other egg in the clutch. If my first 3 eggs were normals, do my odds increase that the 4th is going to be a BEL? No- it's still 1:4 for the 4th egg and any egg thereafter.

There is a 25% odd that I will get all BEL's from any clutch- taking each egg into account individually just as you say it applies above. It's not a 25% odd of getting one BEL out of a clutch of 4- it's a 25% odd of getting all BEL's as each egg has a 1:4 odd on it's own merit independant of any other egg.
1. I never said th outcome of any one egg changes the next. I was simply elaborating on the idea that you brought up about getting 3 or 4 females in a row. The odds of you hitting another female,then yet another female get smaller and smaller because of the unlikelyhood that you would get that many females in the first place.
Flip 100 coins and the odds of hitting heads over and over gets smaller and smaller the more heads up coins you get. The odds per individual flip stay the say but the odds of the sequence of consecutive heads decrease.

2. It is not 25% chance to hit all bels. I agree it is 25% to hit a bel in each egg. But in order to determine how often you will get a clutch of all bels, you have to divide the odds of each egg together.

Put it this way: The chance of hitting the bel in one egg is minimal, but after getting the bel,the chance of the next egg ALSO being bel is less because you already beat the odds once. The odds if beating the odds again are lower.

People hit the big lottery ticket all the time? Ever hear if someone hitting it twice in a row? Unlikely but possible. But even less likey that he would be the one to hit it twice consecutively. Three times in a row? Astronomical!