Quote Originally Posted by coreydelong View Post
The odds are per egg. If there is only 1 egg does that mean we will have no chance at hitting a BEL? No- it means we have a 1:4 odds of hitting a BEL on that egg. If we have 100 eggs it still means we only have a 1:4 odds at each egg. Sure, you can say you're odd's are 25/100, but what it really breaks down to is that there is 1:4 odd's per egg no matter how you crack them.

What's the odd's you'll get a female out of any egg for any clutch? 1:2... if your first egg is a female, what are the odds your 2nd egg will be a female? 3rd egg and so on.... the odd's are per egg. The more egg's you get, the higher your chances of hitting any desired (or undesired) morph.

Odd's and chances at the odd's are quite different. If you hold one lottery ticket with 1:1,000,000 odds you probably wasted $1, but if you hold 500,000 tickets your chances are much better. The odd's are still 1:1,000,000 per ticket.

The sperm do not all line up and decide who's jumping in each egg to make the odd's right for the entire clutch.
If you do the math at the end of the day 1:4 per egg still translates to 1:4 for the clutch. Not saying you cant beat the odds and get all bels. You can just as well get no bels.
were arguing the same point. Not saying your wrong by claiming its per egg but you are mistaken if you claim its not also per clutch. Statistically out of 100 eggs, 25 will be bels (in the ideal perfect world). Open 4 eggs and statistically it will be 1 bel. Open 1 egg (which can represent a 1 egg clutch) and its still 25% @ a bel.

Now your argument about consecutive females is different. The odd will be deifferent if you expect to get multiple females consecutively. But out of the whole clutch the odds will still be 50:50 (as well as per egg). After 1 female emerging,your odds of getting a second consecutive female (in a row) drops. This will not magically change what is in the next egg but playing your odds will show you that the probability of a second female is lower than before you opened the first egg. After 2 females you have to be pretty lucky to hit a third consecutive because the odds multiply (i beleive exponentially but i may be mistaken). In the end the odds should still balance out to about 50:50 male/female for the entire clutch.

In the end the argument is moot. It works both ways (perclutch/per egg)