Proving a morph, kind of..?

[RoseyReps]

Ok, so theoretically ...how many times / clutches would it take before you could say that a snake did NOT carry a certain gene?

Some of you know what I'm talking avout already I'm sure, but say I breed my enchi (that everyone believes is a pastel enchi) to a normal girl, got 0 pastels, and more that looked like him, and normals of course. Some could easily say that the ones looking like him were also pastel enchis. So how many pairings / clutches do you think would be sufficient to show he is not, and just bright? (Obviously, if he throws a pastel my brain debate is done)

Thanks

[Jonas@Balls2TheWall]

I would be somewhat convinced after one pairing and almost completely convinced after 2. Its a 25% chance of producing a pastel so its not an extremely rare odd.

[Zombie]

I agree, 2 is pretty good. I'd prolly do 3 if I was really sure the morph is what I think it is. Did you get any enchis that seemed more like regular enchis? Or did all the enchis come out like him?

[RoseyReps]

I agree, 2 is pretty good. I'd prolly do 3 if I was really sure the morph is what I think it is. Did you get any enchis that seemed more like regular enchis? Or did all the enchis come out like him?

I'm speculating He's not even HOME yet...Oye...

But, he has kept me up many nights wondering!

When the time comes, I just want to have enough girls to *hopefully* prove one way or the other. (Assuming all three go, lay good eggs etc)I think 3 is good too, was just wondering what others thought.

Don't worry..when the time comes his pairing / pics will be EVERYWHERE! And I will update like a madwoman...because it will be my first go at breeding

[snakesRkewl]

1 time if it throws a singe gene pastel

[RoseyReps]

So how many pairings / clutches do you think would be sufficient to show he is not, and just bright? (Obviously, if he throws a pastel my brain debate is done)

Thanks

1 time if it throws a singe gene pastel

I already said that Jerry

I would love to see a pastel pop out first go round, I just want to know what he is for sure if he doesn't throw one first clutch lol.

I know, I know...pastel enchi

[Ridinandreptiles]

Well when you pair it to that lesser pastel and you get super pastel lesser Enchis you'll know(;

[RoseyReps]

Well when you pair it to that lesser pastel and you get super pastel lesser Enchis you'll know(;

Unfortunately she wont be ready until the 13/14 season
Can't wait for that pairing!

[paulh]

Here is the formula you want.

P^n > 0.99

P = probability of a single egg not producing a pastel
^ = to the power
n = number of eggs.

The probability of producing a pastel is 25% = 0.25. So P = 0.75.

By a little trial and error with my calculator, n = 17. So you hatch 17 eggs. Every baby is normal, enchi, bright enchi or something other than a pastel. Then you have a 99.2% probability that the bright enchi parent is not a pastel enchi. More eggs raises the probability, but 99% is a good cutoff point.

If one or more pastels hatch, then you can stop before 17 eggs, of course.

[RoseyReps]

Here is the formula you want.

P^n > 0.99

P = probability of a single egg not producing a pastel
^ = to the power
n = number of eggs.

The probability of producing a pastel is 25% = 0.25. So P = 0.75.

By a little trial and error with my calculator, n = 17. So you hatch 17 eggs. Every baby is normal, enchi, bright enchi or something other than a pastel. Then you have a 99.2% probability that the bright enchi parent is not a pastel enchi. More eggs raises the probability, but 99% is a good cutoff point.

If one or more pastels hatch, then you can stop before 17 eggs, of course.

Thank you! That was what I was looking for