Why do we say "per egg" instead of "per clutch"

[OhhWatALoser]

This is said over and over and I have no idea why, I just saw it in a recent thread again so riddle me this...

I breed a lesser to a normal, I tell someone statistically they will be 50% lesser/50% normal. Then for some reason, people want to say its not per clutch, its per egg....why?

Say I have a 4 egg clutch
L = Lesser
N = Normal

0 Lesser - 1 way
NNNN

1 Lesser - 4 ways
LNNN
NLNN
NNLN
NNNL

2 Lesser - 6 ways (the 50/50...)
LLNN
LNLN
LNNL
NLLN
NLNL
NNLL

3 Lesser - 4 ways
LLLN
LLNL
LNLL
NLLL

4 Lesser - 1 ways
LLLL

so it looks like you have the best chance of getting 2 Lessers out of 4 eggs, so how the heck can you deny statistically the clutch will be 50/50?

[purplemuffin]

Because you can still get all lessers or no lessers. Each egg has a 50/50 percent chance. So while in a mathematical sense that means the clutch should be 50/50 in the real world it just doesn't always work out that way. If each egg ends up being normal you do not have a clutch that matches the odds, but it still makes sense per egg

[OhhWatALoser]

Because you can still get all lessers or no lessers. Each egg has a 50/50 percent chance. So while in a mathematical sense that means the clutch should be 50/50 in the real world it just doesn't always work out that way. If each egg ends up being normal you do not have a clutch that matches the odds, but it still makes sense per egg

Your missing the word statistically

[purplemuffin]

Statistically it should be that. But the problem is it's the real world, so it's just more realistic to say per egg. Each egg DOES have a chance at being any of those things. Statistically it should make sense, but the problem is it just doesn't end up that way in the real world. In math world, yes.

[Dave Green]

Compare it to flipping a coin. If I flipped heads 10 times in a row that has no effect on the 11th flip. The 11th flip is still a 50/50 shot.

So, if you have a six egg clutch from lesser x normal you would expect three lessers and three normals; however, if the first three are lessers you still have 50/50 odds on the last three eggs.

[OhhWatALoser]

Statistically it should be that. But the problem is it's the real world, so it's just more realistic to say per egg. Each egg DOES have a chance at being any of those things. Statistically it should make sense, but the problem is it just doesn't end up that way in the real world. In math world, yes.

How does saying statically not account for the real world, it doesn't mean concrete thats whats going to happen.

[purplemuffin]

Compare it to flipping a coin. If I flipped heads 10 times in a row that has no effect on the 11th flip. The 11th flip is still a 50/50 shot.

So, if you have a six egg clutch from lesser x normal you would expect three lessers and three normals; however, if the first three are lessers you still have 50/50 odds on the last three eggs.

That's a much better way of explaining it, I couldn't figure out the words to use.

[Simple Man]

Your math goes wrong when you add more genes. You can't average an average. You have to apply that to each egg and it changes your number drastically when more genes are involved. That's why mutligene animals are more expensive than adding two genes prices together.

Regards,

B

[wolfy-hound]

Because the Egg Gods and the Odds Gods prefer to hear the "per egg". It makes them more merciful to us breeders when the tiny heads start poking out of each egg.

That's my excuse.

The coin flip explanation is a good one too. And it's true that it 'seems' like the 50/50 clutch would be true in the 'real world' but using the same math to figure a multiple gene clutch will lead you to possible disappointment, since if each egg has only a 1/16 chance of being your golden combo, just because you have 16 eggs doesn't mean that you'll automatically expect at least one of the golden combo. Since each EGG has a very small chance of nabbing all the genes it needs, it's a less likely outcome than just needing to produce 16 possibilities/eggs.

On the surface, it seems the same thing egg vs clutch. But it really does make sense once you delve deeply into it.

[OhhWatALoser]

Compare it to flipping a coin. If I flipped heads 10 times in a row that has no effect on the 11th flip. The 11th flip is still a 50/50 shot.

So, if you have a six egg clutch from lesser x normal you would expect three lessers and three normals; however, if the first three are lessers you still have 50/50 odds on the last three eggs.

It still never changes the clutch's statistics, despite what actually hatches. Real world doesn't change statistics

Your math goes wrong when you add more genes. You can't average an average. You have to apply that to each egg and it changes your number drastically when more genes are involved. That's why mutligene animals are more expensive than adding two genes prices together.

Regards,

B

I don't understand how my math went wrong when I didn't do any. I just listed every possible outcome. Multiple genes will make it more complicated but I don't see how it would effect anything.

Why does everyone want to keep saying real world? It seems no one is reading the word statistically. I'm not asking what happens in the real world. I'm not saying per egg is wrong. I'm asking how can statistically per clutch be wrong because it is always "corrected" when there is nothing wrong with it.

The only thing about real world and statistics being related is the law of averages, which has nothing to do with what i'm talking about.