I Attended the HR2811 Hearing on July 29th

[Mendel's Balls]

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Claims of potential expansion throughout the U.S. by invasive python species are contradicted by ecological niche models by Pyron et al.

http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/art...medid=18698351

Plus, it was published in a peer reviewed journal. Give it a bit more credibility. (Not that I do not think the Barkers are credible, they are. But the population at large is hesitant to "believe" unless it is published in a real journal.)

The original USGS report was severely flawed because it only looked at two climatic variables--mean temperature and mean precipitation. This approach does not take into consideration the variability of local climate conditions--for example, the number of days with extreme low temperatures.

The paper on you cite above, on the other hand, considers 19 climatic variables and gives us a more accurate model of reality.

From that paper's discussion:

"Figure 3 of Rodda et al. [2] illustrates the prediction for the Burmese python in its current native range, and includes vast areas where the python has never been recorded in modern times, including Afghanistan, Borneo and the Arabian peninsula. The fact that their model makes such inaccurate predictions of the current distribution in the native range of this species questions the use of their model in identifying potential areas of future invasion. Modeling the ecological niche of organisms solely as a function of mean temperature and precipitation omits the critical interactions between these variables that define the fundamental and realized niche which organisms inhabit [12], [13]. If species were able to expand into environments simply based on mean precipitation and temperature conditions similar to those in their native range, the continental United States should be overrun by the northward expansion of subtropical species such as the Boa Constrictor, found only 145 km south of the Texas border.

We do not intend to downplay the critical problems that invasive wildlife pose for native ecosystems, or the possible impact that global climate change may have on the environment. The establishment of the Burmese python in the Everglades poses a serious risk to the balance of the park's ecosystem. However, the results from the ecological niche modeling suggest that the possibility for the expansion of the species into the rest of the United States is vastly overstated, and citizens throughout most of North America should have no fear of giant snakes invading their neighborhoods. Based on our results, the methods and predictions of Rodda et al. [2] seem particularly imprecise and do not appear to represent an accurate picture of the threat posed by the Burmese pythons. The alarmist claims made by the USGS could potentially hamper scientific discourse and inquiry into the problem, especially with regard to policy-making. Here, we have demonstrated that the suitable niche for the Burmese Python in the United States is minimal, based on available data regarding the current distribution of the snakes. Additionally, global warming is projected to have a negative effect on the species' continued survival. Climate change models indicate that the effects of global warming will result in a drastic decrease in the suitable habitat for the Burmese python, both in the United States and its native range. These serious problems do not benefit from any potential exaggeration of possible threats to the public and the legislature."

Here's the picture of the potential US range of the Burmese python their model predicts from global warming.