How to make a Blue Eyed Lucy?

[blackcrystal22]

That's not a misconception. It makes more sense to stick to the statistical odds than to assume differently. From any het BEL complex snake x Het BELs, if you get 20 eggs, 5 should be BELs. Each egg has the independant odds of 25% and that carries over to a clutch of 4 eggs, where the clutch then has a 25% chance, or statistically speaking, you should get one BEL from those four eggs. I'm not saying you will, but for every four eggs you have, one of them should be a BEL. While 4 is a very small sample size, those are still the odds. Out of 20 eggs, I'd bet you even money that you hatch between 3-7 BELs, with 5 being the average. The larger the sample group, the closer the odds tend to even out, as you said, but whatever the sample size is, the entire group still has the same 1 in 4 odds as every egg in it. Every probability per egg carries over to the sample size. If you have a 1 in 16 shot and 32 eggs, the only guess I would ever make as to the actual number of those I would hatch would be 2. To say anything else goes against basic logic. I hope this isn't coming off as harsh in any way, but my point is that I see a lot of people saying, "No, it's not 25% of the eggs should be so-and-so, each EGG has a 25% chance of it". Then people reply, "Oh, ok. Thanks". The odds for each egg carry over and become the same odds for the entire clutch or sample size.

I was not taught in my college course that odds 'ever' carry over to a sample size, which, unless this is a properly assigned sample (which is impossible) that can not apply anyhow.
If you want to do a study on this, then go take a 4D and roll it 20 times. See how many times you get a 1.
It could be 10, or it could be 0. There isn't a 'should' in statistics.

[greghall]

Thats why i got a fire fire x fire black eyed lucy the flame red pupil really gets me!!

[PythonWallace]

It doesn't quite work that way...
BELs often times aren't even produced from a cross clutch. Like Het. Albino x Het. Albino you only have a 25% chance PER egg that it will be an Albino. Its the same with BELs.
It is completely possible to have 20 snakes, and none of them turn out to be BELs.. thats the chance of genetics.
Also, mass producing BELs would be very difficult and drown the market even more, so it's a bad idea.

Also, certain combos make better looking BELs than others. Of course, those are more expensive. Mojaves are probably the least cleanest looking BEL out there.
My favorite is the Fire's Black Eyed Lucy. However, I'm not willing to pay 12 hundred for a Fire, when I don't even like Fires that much..

If you purchased a Mojave, (lets say it was male) and bred it to a normal about 1-2 years later, you might get a female mojave to breed with it.. which it's a 50% chance per egg for both female and mojave.
Then you wait 2-3 more years to grow up the female, and breed her to the male.

You could get a BEL, or you could not.
And if you miss the first time, it's another 1-2 years before breeding again, depending on the female.

It takes 5-7 years to get these babies from a single gene. :]

You could get an '07 female mojave, raise her up and breed her to a normal next year, than breed her mojave son to her the next year, so you could technically start with one het and have BELs in 2 years.

And as long as you get at least four eggs (the more the better), statistically, you should get two mojos. And from a mojo x mojo breeding, as long as you get four eggs you should hatch one BEL. While that won't always happen, I would bet on it, while I would not bet anything different. Last year my odds were almost exact. I hatched 4 eggs from a pastel x normal and got 1 male pastel, one female pastel, one male normal and one female normal. My other four clutches were right on, too. You seem to have very little faith in the ball gods.

[PythonWallace]

I was not taught in my college course that odds 'ever' carry over to a sample size, which, unless this is a properly assigned sample (which is impossible) that can not apply anyhow.
If you want to do a study on this, then go take a 4D and roll it 20 times. See how many times you get a 1.
It could be 10, or it could be 0. There isn't a 'should' in statistics.

Of course it carries over. In your college statistics class, what do they teach you the number of times a coin should land on heads if flipped 20x? 10

.5
---- x 20 flips = 10/20
1 coin

It isn't always going to be exact, but you can preemptively guess that you will get 5 BELs from 20 mojo x mojo eggs. Those are the mathematical odds.

.25
---- x 20 eggs = 5/20
1 egg


All the "independant of one another" talk means is that if the first five eggs hatch and you get 5 BELs, that doesn't mean that the rest of the clutch shouldn't have any BELs in it because you hit you odds on the first 5/20. The other 15 eggs still all have a 25% chance of having more BELs. Statistically, out of those 15 eggs, 3.75 of those eggs should still be BELs.

I also made a 4 sided dice and rolled it 0 times. I got 5 1s.

[PythonWallace]

I was not taught in my college course that odds 'ever' carry over to a sample size, which, unless this is a properly assigned sample (which is impossible) that can not apply anyhow.
If you want to do a study on this, then go take a 4D and roll it 20 times. See how many times you get a 1.
It could be 10, or it could be 0. There isn't a 'should' in statistics.

The entire purpose of probability is what "should" happen in a given sample, or the expectations you should expect to see in a given sample, by taking into account the probability. If you had a test question that asked how many BELs should you expect to get if you breed a mojave to a mojave and had 20 eggs, with each egg having a 25% chance of there being a BEL inside, you would answer 5 BELs if you wanted to pass. If you answered, "well it could be 0 or it could be 10" you would fail. At least at the college I went to.

4. Statistics. a. the relative possibility that an event will occur, as expressed by the ratio of the number of actual occurrences to the total number of possible occurrences.
b. the relative frequency with which an event occurs or is likely to occur.
Another way of saying how likely something is to occur is to say how offen it should happen.

I'm writing facts here, for the purpose of clearing up the misconception that the probability of an entire clucth hatching out a desired morph isn't the same as the per egg percentage. It won't be exact in every sample group, but the only place I've ever seen the crazy varience from the projected outcome that you're talking about was playing online roulette.

I don't think going to college says anything about anything. I think college is a waste of money, but when I took the college placement exam I tested out of 6 math classes, the first four of which were all that were required to get a degree. And the people who know me, know that I'm still an idiot.

If I was taught that the probability of an occurance happening didn't carry over to a sample group, or that probability had nothing to do with the likelyhood of an occurance happining, I'd get my tuition back and tell Kenny Powers to go back to teaching gym.

[Gloryhound]

I know my 6 year old daughter made a really cute looking Blue eyed lucy using White and blue clay!

She also made a bumble bee and a super cinny.

The bumble bee was amazing until the dog ate it!

[wolfy-hound]

Well, if you want to bypass the egg gods then yes.. you can use clay, and you can ensure that you get 100% BELs in any given group.
In essance.. she has BECOME the egg goddess. Go her!

[ScottyDsntKnow]

One last thing, while the BEL is a "dead end combo" having one is a huge benefit to a breeder since a lesserxlesser will throw out 100% lessers when bred to a normal every time. This allows you to either kick up your collection of lessers to breed into other things like lesser pastels, lesser bees, queen bees etc... which are still very desirable designers. Or if anyone has seen the mystic potion mojavexmystic cross... wow...

[FIREball]

You can also use the roll on type white out and a trip to lens crafters for blue contact lenses. In these tough economical times this way is a lot cheaper.

[wolfy-hound]

Have you priced tinted contact lenses for snakes? Shoot.. buy a white snake. Although the lens last a long time, since they don't get worn out, since snakes don't blink.