A math problem...

So who's up for a challenge? The prize - bragging rights. And I'll reveal what the answer looks like if anyone comes up with the right answer. Here we go:

You have 5 independent events. Each event has a single outcome. The probablility of a favorable outcome is 25%. What is the chance (in %) of 4 favorable outcomes?

I'll be waiting..

16%? I dunno, I'm pretty terrible at math nowadays.

Side note...I read this title as something completely different...let's just say I was like oh crap should this bbe in qt forum...

Edit...yea I screwed that up. Lol

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Originally Posted by RoseyReps

16%? I dunno, I'm pretty terrible at math nowadays.

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Not even close.

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Side note...I read this title as something completely different...let's just say I was like oh crap should this bbe in qt forum...

Edit...yea I screwed that up. Lol

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Very curious as to what you thought it said.

Holy crap! Now let me ask you what that favorable outcome might be and I will try to figure this problem out! But I am not that great with math. There's gotta be a formula for this kinda thing.

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Originally Posted by Andybill

Holy crap! Now let me ask you what that favorable outcome might be and I will try to figure this problem out!

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What, take away your incentive? Never!

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There's gotta be a formula for this kinda thing.

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There most definitely is.

Im just gonna take a stab at it and say 1.25% .... :D

3.125%

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Originally Posted by Andybill

Im just gonna take a stab at it and say 1.25% .... :D

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Nope

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Originally Posted by Dave Green

3.125%

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Come on, Dave! You're the voice of experience here... much lower.

.39% !!

I think Zuma got it

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Originally Posted by Zuma22

.39% !!

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So close... Remember, there are 5 events. You calculated the chance of 4 favorable outcomes with 4 events.

.29%???

0.31%??

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Originally Posted by Zuma22

.29%???

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WINNER, WINNER CHICKEN DINNER!!!!!!!!!

From a het albino x het albino, and my 1st clutch ever...

http://i1253.photobucket.com/albums/...psbdb1a13e.jpg

http://i1253.photobucket.com/albums/...ps1e9f41ad.jpg

Nice, you crushed it!!

Grand slam! That is awesome!!! My favorite kinda threads! So what day did you cut?

YAAAY!! :D can one of those little guys be my prize? ;)

Congratulations!!

Yup great odds on that clutch.

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Originally Posted by Andybill

Grand slam! That is awesome!!! My favorite kinda threads! So what day did you cut?

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I cut Sunday (day 52). Had my little girls here, and they (and I) were desparate for a peek. They started peeking out today.

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Originally Posted by Zuma22

YAAAY!! :D can one of those little guys be my prize? ;)

Congratulations!!

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Thanks! And no.

That is pretty insane...absolute grand slam all the way! If they start to feel like too much of a handful, though...I'm happy to help relieve the burden :P

After cutting on day 52, did you mist the eggs until they pipped? Or did you just leave them?

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Originally Posted by swansonbb

Very curious as to what you thought it said.

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Replace the a, with an e in "Math". Which is why I was like O_O Annnyways, congrats on crushing the odds there!

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Originally Posted by Zuma22

That is pretty insane...absolute grand slam all the way! If they start to feel like too much of a handful, though...I'm happy to help relieve the burden :P

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I'm so lucky to be surrounded by such helpful people.

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Originally Posted by samh0114

After cutting on day 52, did you mist the eggs until they pipped? Or did you just leave them?

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Left them in the tub in the incubator. Tub was covered with press & seal - no need to mist, humidity was very high.

Yay, congrats! I love baby snakes, but hate math, lol...

Those odds are amazing. You have any other het to het pairings? :gj:

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Originally Posted by adamsky27

Those odds are amazing. You have any other het to het pairings? :gj:

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Sadly, not this year. I have a pair of het pieds I'm growing, but they're probably 2 seasons away.

VERY NICE ODDS! I wish I could get that lucky!

For those not understanding the math, here goes:

0.25 x 0.25 x 0.25 x 0.25 x 0.75 = 0.0029296875 x 100 (to change to a percent) = 0.293%!

I've got a math minor and happen to love not only math, but genetics as well!

Only the event changes, the probability doesn't change it's still 25%

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Originally Posted by Peoples

Only the event changes, the probability doesn't change it's still 25%

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The probability of getting a favorable event is 25%. The probably of not getting a favorable event (aka getting an unfavorable event) is 75%.

Think of it in terms of genetics. Here we're looking at albinos. if you look at the genetics calculator, you get something that looks like this:

• 25% Normals
• 50% het albino
• 25% albino

In this example, the probability of getting a favorable event (a visual albino) is 25%. The probably of getting an unfavorable event (everything that is not a visual albino) is 75% because you have a 25% chance of getting a normal and 50% chance of getting het albinos.

The female laid 5 eggs and the OP wanted to know what's the probability that 4 eggs have an albino in it. So, we know that the probability of getting an albino is 25%. So, we have to multiply those odds x 4 eggs. So you get 25% x 25% x 25% x 25%. Now, the 5th egg is an UNfavorable event meaning that it is not albino. So since we said there's a 75% chance of not getting an albino, then you multiply that with the 25%s. So that leaves you with: 25% x 25% x 25% x 25% x 75% = 0.293%.

basically, the odds of getting 4 albinos in a 5 egg clutch from 2 het albinos is slim to none! Clearly the OP did something to make the odd gods very, very happy!

0.292969% that 4 favorable and 1 unfavorable outcome happen. 0.39% is if 4 or 5 favorable outcomes happen.


Edit: Didn't see there was more than one page :P.

But here's another interesting thing: The probability that you would get 0 albinos is only 23.7%, meaning you have a 76.3% chance at getting one or more albinos with a het x het breeding ;). This is assuming a clutch of 5 eggs

awesome odds :gj:

2 seasons ago we bred a black pastel het ghost X albino and got 8 black pastels out of 9 eggs, pretty much my best clutch odds wise.

Thanks to all! The last hatchling crawled out of the egg Friday night. I can only upload cell pics until I find my camera cord..., but here you go.


http://i1253.photobucket.com/albums/...ps5e603870.jpg

WOW! GREAT odds, can I kiss the ring or rub your belly, lol. :D
I really NEED the odd Gods to be on my side...

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Originally Posted by swansonbb

Thanks to all! The last hatchling crawled out of the egg Friday night. I can only upload cell pics until I find my camera cord..., but here you go.


http://i1253.photobucket.com/albums/...ps5e603870.jpg

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WOW! Those are some clean, reduced, high contrast albinos! I'll just take those off your hands for you....

Your math doesn't make sense to me. By that same formula, if you had gotten four eggs then you would only have a 10% chance of getting an albino, because .25 X .75 X .75 X .75 = .105 X 100 = 10.5%. If you do every combination of .25 and .75 that you can, then you won't get all the way to 100%, only 96%.

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Originally Posted by gsarchie

Your math doesn't make sense to me. By that same formula, if you had gotten four eggs then you would only have a 10% chance of getting an albino, because .25 X .75 X .75 X .75 = .105 X 100 = 10.5%. If you do every combination of .25 and .75 that you can, then you won't get all the way to 100%, only 96%.

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I explained it more here: http://ball-pythons.net/forums/showt...ble-recessives

You do have a 10.5% chance at getting ONE albino when looking at only one egg, so that's a 4*10.5%=42% (there are 4 different ways of getting one albino out of 4), but you also have a 6*(.75*.75*.25*.25)= 21% chance at getting two (there are 6 ways of getting two), and a 4*(.25³*.75)=4.68% chance at getting 3 (there are four ways to get 3), and a .25⁴=0.4% chance at getting 4 in a 4 egg clutch. Add those up and you get 68% chance, and if you find the chance you don't get one (.75⁴), you get 31.6% chance... which when you add those two together, you get 100% chance of all outcomes. I go into that in that thread I created in response to this

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Originally Posted by towelie4365

I explained it more here: http://ball-pythons.net/forums/showt...ble-recessives

You do have a 10.5% chance at getting ONE albino when looking at only one egg, so that's a 4*10.5%=42% (there are 4 different ways of getting one albino out of 4), but you also have a 6*(.75*.75*.25*.25)= 21% chance at getting two (there are 6 ways of getting two), and a 4*(.25³*.75)=4.68% chance at getting 3 (there are four ways to get 3), and a .25⁴=0.4% chance at getting 4 in a 4 egg clutch. Add those up and you get 68% chance, and if you find the chance you don't get one (.75⁴), you get 31.6% chance... which when you add those two together, you get 100% chance of all outcomes. I go into that in that thread I created in response to this

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x2.

Most people aren't very math savy. Please don't break your brain if you aren't into math D: We need good brains in this hobby.

I messed up when I only multilpied the ((.25*.25*.75*.75)*4) and not *6). As for being math savvy, it isn't that I'm not, it is just that I am rusty. I did well in bio-stats in college and had the highest grade in my calculus class. I've always loved math because it is simply logic and is black and white, right or wrong. That said, could we not multiply the (.29%*5) for the odds of getting 4 out of 5, since there are 5 ways to get 4 albinos out of 5 eggs? That would make the odds around 1.5% if I'm not mistaken.

Yep, that is correct. 0.29% would be that those specific eggs hatched that way, 1.5% chance that any combination results in 4 albinos

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Originally Posted by towelie4365

Yep, that is correct. 0.29% would be that those specific eggs hatched that way, 1.5% chance that any combination results in 4 albinos

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^this.