Future of the BP market?

[fenez]

OK, I know that everyone gets tired of these kinds of threads but I have a specific question(s).

There are a lot of people that believe prices do not have to go down every year, and on the other hand there are others that feel price drops are inevitable. However, this is not what I care about (well I do, but I don't want to beat a dead horse with this thread). What I'm trying to figure out is how long will it be before all the "get rich quick" people finally get out of this industry, and what will this mean for the rest of us that are in this for the long run when they do finally leave?

IMO, these "get rich quick" people are largely responsible for the instability that exists in the ball python industry because they are so willing to drop their prices in order to make their money back. Eventually these people will drop out of the business because they are not making the kind of money they had hoped to...

So my questions are, when will the majority of these "get rich quick" people get out of the ball python industry, and how will this affect the market in the short and long run?

I realize I'm not asking easy questions with obvious answers but I know there are a lot of you out there who have been doing this for a long time and I'd be very interested to hear what your opinions are... that being said, all opinion are welcomed!

[JLC]

Well...this is just my personal opinion based solely on life experience and observation, rather than actual experience in the BP market.


I think the "get rich quick" dudes will always be there. The ones that are here this year may not be around 2-3 years from now for any number of reasons...but for every current one who gives up and goes on to do something else, someone new will see all the dollar signs and try to worm their way in to make those "instant big bucks" that it seems everyone who owns a breeding pair of BPs must be making.

The world doesn't lack for people too lazy to work hard to earn their money and I don't see how all of them will suddenly come to the realization that succeeding in the BP market means years and years of hard work and good business sense.

[fenez]

Well...this is just my personal opinion based solely on life experience and observation, rather than actual experience in the BP market.


I think the "get rich quick" dudes will always be there. The ones that are here this year may not be around 2-3 years from now for any number of reasons...but for every current one who gives up and goes on to do something else, someone new will see all the dollar signs and try to worm their way in to make those "instant big bucks" that it seems everyone who owns a breeding pair of BPs must be making.

The world doesn't lack for people too lazy to work hard to earn their money and I don't see how all of them will suddenly come to the realization that succeeding in the BP market means years and years of hard work and good business sense.

I definitely agree with you that there will always be the "get rich quick" people in this industry because there was, is, and always will be so much money involved in it. However, I also think that this market has already peaked and the days of the 20K+ morphs are over, or at least on a long hiatus (no, I'm not saying the market is crashing or "bursting", I'm just saying it was over-inflated and, as the laws of economics decree, it needs to come down and settle at a more realistic level where supply more accurately meets demand).

So, with the dollar signs not being as large anymore, I'd think the temptation to enter this market to "make millions" won't be as great as it used to be and therefore the number of "get rich quick" people will decrease. Like you said, we'll never be rid of them completely but I do think the next 3-5 years will be marked by a decrease in these types of breeders.

If I am right in that the overall number of "get rich quick" people will decrease in the next few years, then I'm back to my original question(s)...

[cassandra]

I suggest reading Ralph Davis's journal this month (April 14th). He's written a very interesting rant about this topic...rant is what he's written, but only because Ralph is a man of strong emotions and opinions. But from my take, he's right on...=)

[jglass38]

I suggest reading Ralph Davis's journal this month (April 14th). He's written a very interesting rant about this topic...rant is what he's written, but only because Ralph is a man of strong emotions and opinions. But from my take, he's right on...=)

Dead on for sure. Ralph tells it like it is..Gotta respect that. Good read as he always is.

[xdeus]

However, I also think that this market has already peaked and the days of the 20K+ morphs are over, or at least on a long hiatus (no, I'm not saying the market is crashing or "bursting", I'm just saying it was over-inflated and, as the laws of economics decree, it needs to come down and settle at a more realistic level where supply more accurately meets demand).

Peaked?! I haven't been around the Ball biz for very long, but from what I understand people have been saying Balls have peaked for the last 10 years or so. I think it's just getting started. Sure, the days of $20K morphs might be coming to an end, but there are a LOT more people buying morphs out there than ever before, and the lower the prices drop the more people will jump in. Not just to make a buck, but because they can finally afford that cool morph they've only seen pictures of.

[SnakeySnakeSnake]

Days of the 20k+ morph (singular) maybe.

Days of the 20k+ morph combos? Never! lol


I mean, right now there are unlimited morph combinations worth 20k+...

most aren't even made yet.

[herplover92]

i read his journal and he is right about the people that want to pay their bills with this.

[herplover92]

so, i am going to get a pastel in the near future. should i get it from this "breeder" who has them for $350 or from a good breeder like Adam from 8ballpythons? if i buy it from the guy that has it cheap, will i be contributing(sp) to the "damaging" of the ball biz?

[SnakeySnakeSnake]

Is it worth the risk? Is this a well known breeder? Will you get a healthy snake? Is it a high quality snake? Do you want to base your breeding project off of it? I'm surprised someone other than a wholesaler is selling one for $350 unless it is low-quality, or sick, or ??/ fill in the blank.