When you measured the temp over the heat mat was it on top of the Reptibark or was it on the glass? Same with the paper - it can "float" a bit over the glass, creating a thin air gap which will give you a falsely low temp reading.
Does the ambient temp in the room fluctuate, or did it when the problem first showed up? A dimmer doesn't keep the heat mat at a constant temp, it just limits how much electricity goes to the appliance, so they only should be used if your room temp is stable. If your room was 70*F and the heat mat was 90*F initially, if the room temp happened to increase to 80*F for some reason then the heat mat would be 100*F.