At what likelihood would you give up trying to prove out a possible het?

[Oxylepy]

So, lets say you have a possible het recessive gene snake and you breed it to another het recessive or visual snake of the same morph. At what likelihood would you give up on the snake being het for the recessive gene?

As a comparison here is the likelihood you do not produce a visual with a het x het pairing

1 offspring 75% likelihood to not produce a visual
2 offspring 56.2% likelihood to not produce a visual
3 offspring 42.2% likelihood to not produce a visual
4 offspring 31.6% likelihood to not produce a visual
5 offspring 23.7% likelihood to not produce a visual
6 offspring 17.8% likelihood to not produce a visual
7 offspring 13.3% likelihood to not produce a visual
8 offspring 10% likelihood to not produce a visual
9 offspring 7.5% likelihood to not produce a visual
10 offspring 5.6% likelihood to not produce a visual
11 offspring 4.2% likelihood to not produce a visual
12 offspring 3.2% likelihood to not produce a visual
13 offspring 2.4% likelihood to not produce a visual
14 offspring 1.8% likelihood to not produce a visual
15 offspring 1.3% likelihood to not produce a visual
16 offspring 1.0% likelihood to not produce a visual
17 offspring 0.75% likelihood to not produce a visual
18 offspring 0.56% likelihood to not produce a visual
19 offspring 0.42% likelihood to not produce a visual
20 offspring 0.32% likelihood to not produce a visual
21 offspring 0.24% likelihood to not produce a visual
22 offspring 0.18% likelihood to not produce a visual
23 offspring 0.13% likelihood to not produce a visual
24 offspring 0.10% likelihood to not produce a visual

When breeding a het to a visual to prove it out the likelihoods are as follows

1 offspring 50% likelihood to not produce a visual
2 offspring 25% likelihood to not produce a visual
3 offspring 12.5% likelihood to not produce a visual
4 offspring 6.2% likelihood to not produce a visual
5 offspring 3.1% likelihood to not produce a visual
6 offspring 1.6% likelihood to not produce a visual
7 offspring 0.78% likelihood to not produce a visual
8 offspring 0.39% likelihood to not produce a visual
9 offspring 0.2% likelihood to not produce a visual
10 offspring 0.1% likelihood to not produce a visual

[Oxylepy]

Based on the one other vote I believe I failed to adequately word this. I do not mean a snake which is this likelihood of het (20% possible het as an example), but the likelihood you will not have produced a visual from pairing.

[StillBP]

I have and will breed het to het and het to possible het so I'm in for about anything

[Oxylepy]

Scratch it, take it down. My intent was clearly not expressed well enough, and I have confused the voters. The end result will be a poll that fails to give viable data because it can be interpretted too many ways

[OhhWatALoser]

i understand your intent. Personally I look for the 15 offspring for the het x visual, 1/32768 or .003%. Its when I kinda feel that you could lessen the "well theres always a chance" comment.

[StillBP]

I also understood what you were getting at I was simply expressing the fact that I dont give up like ever

[Hannahshissyfix]

I guess I don't understand the question but personally I only purchase definite 100% hets or try to just spend more to work with visuals. As far as I know, I only have 1 snake that's a possible het (66% lavendar albino) but I'll probably never try to prove him out on that as I don't have any other albino in my collection and it's not worth it to me for as much as it would cost to buy a female lavendar pied to find out.

[Oxylepy]

The spread should be more toward lower numbers.

When attempting to prove out a possible het (doesn't matter the percentage of possible het) as you produce more offspring when bred to visual/het the likelihood of you NOT having produced a visual drops off, I cut it off at 0.1% or 1/1000 likelihood you just haven't had a visual pop up. Meaning it is very unlikely your possible het actually is het.