I would buy the biggest CHE your light housing can handle. If it can take an 80 or 100w, I'd go with that. Then get a dimmer switch from Lowes/Home depot, wherever... and use that to control how much heat you need. In my opinion, it's better to run a 100w at 40% power and know you can bump it up if you need to as opposed to having a 40w running at 100% and hoping that's enough.
I was actually just thinking that. I have a bunch of domes rated at 300 and a bunch of light dimmers rated at 300 also so I'll probably pick up a 150w since I think that's the highest they go.