This guy beats the odds, or something else going on?

[aferland66]

Hi all, I'm wondering if someone with genetics knowledge can answer this question... I have a male Lemon Blast and in the last 2 years he has produced 3 clutches and for some reason all these clutches have been way over the odds. Can anybody explain why this male is reproducing so much of the morph genes?

All breeding were to regular females. Out of 22 babies he only produced 6 regular babies.

2014 6 babies.
2 x Lemon Blast
2 x Pinstripe
1 x Pastel
1 x Regular

2015 7 babies.
4 x Lemon Blast
2 x Pinstripe
1 x Regular

2015 9 babies.
3 x Lemon Blast
1 x Pinstripe
1 x Pastel
4 x Regular

[bcr229]

Sometimes the odds gods are kind, sometimes they are not. For instance, the four eggs my pewter female laid just pipped and it looks like she threw the cinnamon gene into all four hatchlings and pastel into three of them.

[olstyn]

6/22 is actually just about exactly right. Lemon Blast = Pastel Pinstripe if I recall correctly. Breeding that to a normal means that each offspring has a 50% chance of getting each trait. That also mean that they have a 50% chance of *not* getting each trait. 50% to not get pastel * 50% to not get pinstripe = 25% chance of not getting either = 25% normals, averaged over time. What this means, really, is that you should get approximately 25% normals, 25% pastels, 25% pinstripes, and 25% lemon blasts over the long term.

Out of 22 offspring, on average, you should have produced 5 or 6 of each type. With your results so far being 9 lemon blasts, 5 pinstripes, 2 pastels, and 6 normals, you're actually pretty close on the odds. You've produced a few more lemon blasts and a few less pastels than you should, but the normals and the pinstripes are just about right on. The results have been slightly favorable for you, but not anything outside the normal range of random chance.

[OhhWatALoser]

when it comes down to it, you have a 50% chance at getting a pin and a 50% chance of getting a pastel. You produced 11/22 pastels and 14/22 pins. So you got lucky on the pin gene a few times, but besides that odds are right where you would expect. Also odds are exactly what they are... odds. There is a chance to produce 22/22 lemonblasts, just as there is a chance to produce 22/22 normals. Doesn't mean anything abnormal is going on, but the odds just happen to be severely low of doing that lol.

[aferland66]

Yeah you are right, when you look at the odds separately, it is pretty even, guess I just got lucky that most of the odds went into the same animals (Lemon Blasts)

Thanks all.

[Blue Apple Herps]

Odds are just that, odds.

I've had 8 egg co-dom x co-dom with zero morphs before. I've had het x het with all visuals before. I've had clutches of corns with 20 hatchlings and 1.19 sex ratios before. You do this long enough and you get all sorts of wonky things, but in the end it all pretty much evens out.