I wish your Enchi would come show my Lesser Cinny how it's done...
So simply because this happened to me last year - do you have any other pics of the ovulation? The reason I ask is because I had distinct swelling like that and thought for sure it was an ovy, that the next shed was the pre-lay, etc. Turns out it was the pre-ov shed and she swole up like football after that shed. Surprise!
Anyway, the tail suck is really the best way to tell if it's for real or not. Was her tail totally skin and bones looking during that ovy and now it's normal again?