Your example is exactly why I purposed to maximize the odds and start with a known 1.0 Pin 100% Het Pied. You may not hit the odds on the Pastel 100% Het Pied this fall either? You could have bought a 1.0 Pastel 100% Het Pied last year for $200- $250 and been a year or more ahead. You only have to roll the dice once starting with the Het male that will get you there. More cash upfront, but a better chance of a quicker return on the investment.
He's a fabulous pied, she's a fabulous pastel, and they make fabulous pastel het pieds. Pastel pied is a pretty low-level project for me. But I'm going for it at all, I want THOSE genes.