SORRY BIG TYPO at the end of last post. That's 65.6% for 8 eggs, not 75.6%.
Calculating that out, the chances of having a firefly, or specifically a male firefly, in a particular clutch of eggs look like this:
at least 1 ff || at least 1 MALE ff
1 egg : 25% || 12.5%
2 eggs: 43.8% || 23.4%
3 eggs: 57.8% || 33.0%
4 eggs: 68.4% || 41.4%
5 eggs: 76.3% || 48.7%
6 eggs: 82.2% || 55.1%
7 eggs: 86.7% || 60.7%
8 eggs: 90.0% || 65.6%
Now... the multi-generational thing is also weird. Because the instant you get that male firefly het axanthic that you want, the probability jumps from whatever it was to 100%, and you're back to the single generational calculation for that breeding. So 12.5% per egg for a firefly axanthic (either sex).
And you're not going to proceed with the 2nd breeding until you get the boy firefly, right?
But okay, let's just assume we have a momma snake who we magically know always lays exactly 8 eggs. The chance of getting the male firefly het axanthic in the first generation followed by the firefly axanthic in the second for two 8-egg clutches is 0.656 * 0.656 = 0.5679, or 43.00%
Which, hey, is almost 50/50. I say go for it.
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