My first suggestion would be to check the acurite... that is super easy to do and if it is the issue will save you a lot of time that you would have spent on tinkering with your heating rig.
If this started as soon as you moved the tub I would guess that the cardboard might be causing the issue (if it isn't just a bad thermometer) You could try moving your thermostat probe to see if that makes a difference.
You could use a piece of a tub to simulate the inside of your tubs by placing it on the Flexwatt and attaching the thermostat probe to the piece of tub. You then set your thermostat to the desired tub temperature and then check your BP's tubs temps with your thermometer to make sure that it is calibrated properly.
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