Hard to say, but with the bulge so close to her tail either she has to drop a load, or she has to drop a load of eggs. I agree that I would interpet it as she is going into her prelay shed. You may have missed actual ovulation but di you see her glow? I had a girl just fool me, thought she was glowing then she shed, but now she is really glowing and about to ovulate. So I easily jumped ahead a full shed cycle, probably just my eagerness getting the better of my judgement. That and the fact that she is pretty big at 2500 grams and started the season at 1800. Good luck either way, love the yellow on her belly.
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