Quote Originally Posted by rabernet View Post
DING, DING, DING........winner, winner, chicken dinner! That's EXACTLY why it's far more accurate to explain that the odds are PER EGG, not per clutch.
Blackjack!

no really though... this is a very good thread. I'm no breeder but remembering my stats classes. Each egg is an "independent trial". Meaning, one egg's outcome doesn't effect any of the other outcomes, or eggs. Therefore the %'s have to be about each individual egg, and not the clutch as a whole, like most people have stated already. Just wanted to get in on the stats discussion.

It's like roulette. Just because the ball landed on black 4 times in a row, doesn't mean there is a higher chance of it falling on red the next time. They're all independent trials and past trials in no way effect the outcome of the next trial.

phew... this is fun! Please correct, add or whatever if I'm off...