What should I do?

[JustChad04]

So I am thinking ahead today and wanting some input from the great BP community on what they feel I should do.

Situation: Having a het Lemon pastel breed a het Spider (het for pied) this upcomming breeding season (for 2012). Think my math is right but the odds are of landing a Bumblebee Pied are 1/8 (1/4 chance of landing a pied, and 1/4 chance that pied being bumblebee), but i suck at math so it is probably wrong lol.

Dilemna: IF I land a Bumpie or w/e it is called, should I sell it, or keep it? I estimate that the value of a bumpie is easily 10,000 dollars if not higher. BUT if i decide to keep it i could produce more offspring with better odds and guarantee of all being het as well. Both sound tempting but do I really want to invest more time of just take the money and run while it is still good?

What would you do?

thanks BP community!

[aalomon]

Actually, your odds would be 1/16. As for keeping it, its really up to you. Personally, if the lemon het is the female and you hatch out a male pastel spied I would keep it just for the chance of a killer spied.

[Freakie_frog]

I think you mean a Lemon Pastel Het for Pied as there is no het Lemon pastel and aalomon is right each egg has a 1:16 shot at being a Bumble Bee Pied..

[JustChad04]

Yeh math not the greatest but in simple 4 bracket punnet square 1/8 made sense since each egg has 1/4 odds to be pied, from that the pied can be either normal pied, spied, pastel pied, or the bumblebee pied. Guess i forgot to times it by 2 since its a double codom or 2 different punnet squares. But yet it makes sense to me either way. Think i need someone to explain how it equals to 1/16 odds that be helpful.

The lemon pastel is the male, and i thougt of keeping it if it was male bumpie but have nothing but the het spider female to breed it too. But can breed it to anything say my pinstripe and create a spinner blast het, and easily sell it for good value or again keep it for future projects. I guess i have to sit down an evaluate wether i want to progress my pied project and put the time into it.

But none the less what would you do

Btw bumpie's sell for over $18k just asked!!!! Crazy

[aalomon]

You kinda had the right idea with the punnet square. Each egg has a 1/4 chance of being a pied. Statistically, each pied would have a 1/4 chance of being a bee too. The math is just 1/4 x 1/4 = 1/16.

[JustChad04]

I suppose that makes more sense, thanks for clearing that up. just why multiplying vs adding them confused me. guess we will just have to wait and see huh

[aalomon]

You multiply because your chances of hitting the snake you want go down when you are working with mutliple genes. Adding (1/4 + 1/4 = 1/2) would make you chances go up and as much as we would all love that to be the case, its not that easy.