I think the things that everyone is neglecting to consider here is that BOTH of these guys have been training to improve their stamina second, that FIVE of Carwin's twelve wins are by way of submission. The guy has a ground game. He also has a wrestling background just like Lesnar. He was a D2 champion when Lesnar was D1 champ. I agree that Carwin could very well get gassed if it goes past the 1st round but, if the doubts of his Cardio are proven wrong I think he's got one hell of a chance at taking Lesnar out.
Not to discredit Lesnar, the guy's a beast. but he's only had 5 fights or so, and he did pummel Mir in one of their two battles. However, that being said it's just my opinion that Mir is, while still a badass, not the same fighter he once was. He wasn't at the top of his prime in either of their two bouts and I don't think that Lesnar has been pushed to the limit yet. It's just my personal thought that if anyone can derail Lesnar, it'll be Carwin.