Update on "Where is the Ball Python market heading?"

[Mitch21]

I just wanted to resurface a topic that has previous had much debate...

I don't visit kingsnake much at all, but wanted to see the "going rate" for clowns and pastel het clowns. I didn't find much, but I noticed there has been a SERIOUS decline in general prices since my last visit to kingsnake (which was probably about 2 months ago)! And it seems like there are twice as many ads as last year (this is purely a speculation as I don't have the numbers to verify that)...

Do you think this market is becoming super saturated? It seems like there are breeders popping up EVERYWHERE (me trying my hand at it as well! ) I've heard a few 'ex-ball python breeders' say that the market is already super-saturated and the market isn't really going anywhere in the future. I find that hard to believe since there's literally hundreds... excuse me... thousands of morphs to be created.

Prices will forever fall. Breeders will continually jump into this hobby. But do you think there will be enough buyers to sustain the amount of breeding that will exist soon?

What are your thoughts on this???

[withonor]

For clowns I think the most common price I've seen is ~$1200. For random x het clown ~$400-$1000.

[Ophis]

as long as there are people breeding ball pythons there will always be a market for them. breeders are the biggest ball python consumers, the average person wont spend the kind of money we do on them. the trick is trying to keep up with all of new morphs and try to get in on a good project while its still hot

[het.pied]

honestly i dont really care for the market as i am just gonna be breeding for my own pleasure. if its cheaper for a morph better for me to pick up and start a project for me to play with in years too come. i dont really care for making money off what i produce.

[jjmitchell]

It would be nice to see the stuff you buy produce, and see a profit.... But as prices go down perhaps more people would be buying cooler stuff....but most people that i know would prefer to purchase a morph but the cost is sometimes unreasonable for someone who just likes the animal for a pet. So hopefully as prices drop there will be more people interested...

[Mitch21]

as long as there are people breeding ball pythons there will always be a market for them. breeders are the biggest ball python consumers, the average person wont spend the kind of money we do on them. the trick is trying to keep up with all of new morphs and try to get in on a good project while its still hot

I definitely agree with that. Breeders do make up most of the BP purchases because they are improving their own collection. Newbie breeders mostly start with the pastels, mojaves,cinnamons,...etc. while experienced breeders already have those and are adding the combos and the more expensive recessives. Right? So what happens when there finally is a slowdown with breeders coming into the market? All of the newbie breeders would be producing their pastels, mojaves, cinnamons, and what else, but there wouldn't really be much purchasing going on for these lower cost base morphs because there would be no more newbie breeders who didn't already have these morphs. If there is a multi-year slow down of new breeders coming into the game, this would most definitely hurt those breeders with a newer collection.

While analyzing this post, this writeup of mine shows great similarity to a Pyramid Scheme. Think of the Ball Python industry as a giant pyramid with BHB, Ralph, NERD, whoever else.. on top. Then it branches out and you have your medium sized breeders in the middle. Then at the bottom are your newbie breeders. As breeders come into the breeding game, they are put in the bottom of the triangle and purchase their beginner ball pythons (ie. pastels, mojaves, cinnamons, spiders, ...). Breeders move up in the pyramid as their collection becomes more competitive and impressive.

But the overall 'performance' is based on the fact that hundreds of new breeders come into this industry every year. If they want to breed snakes, they need to build their collection, which means they are buying more snakes from the people above them. And it goes on and on.

Does this seem feasible to anyone? Or does no one think this will happen?


Btw... this is just for fun. I don't want anyone to get their panties in a bunch if they don't agree with something. It's just interesting to try and project future trends. So have fun with it!!

[Freakie_frog]

With over 4 million different combos possiable..No I still think there is loads to market out there yet.. I mean with over 66 different base morphs untill we see a 66 gene combo we' haven't seen the end.

[sho220]

My prediction is that, at times, the ball python market will go up. It will also, at other times, go down. I've done tons of research and analytical studies and that is the conclusion of my findings! j/k

I think it's like any other "market"...it will go up and down and it'll probably somewhat mirror the stock market, job market, etc. Snakes are a luxury, and the first things to go during hard times are the luxuries. For small timers like myself who are just hobbiest's it's a great time to add to the collection.

[boasandballs]

While analyzing this post, this writeup of mine shows great similarity to a Pyramid Scheme. Think of the Ball Python industry as a giant pyramid with BHB, Ralph, NERD, whoever else.. on top. Then it branches out and you have your medium sized breeders in the middle. Then at the bottom are your newbie breeders. As breeders come into the breeding game, they are put in the bottom of the triangle and purchase their beginner ball pythons (ie. pastels, mojaves, cinnamons, spiders, ...). Breeders move up in the pyramid as their collection becomes more competitive and impressive.

I was thinking the same way back in 05 when we expanded into ball pythons, and worried the bottom would drop out soon. The thing I have seen is that while some are dropping out others are getting in. As the prices go down more will be sold as "pets".

Basically the way I see it is, it's not a get rich quick thing as some thought back then. If you love the animals and don't get over your head as far as caring for them you will be fine. (I've seen lots of people that can't afford to feed them in these harder times) And as time goes on, and we get olde,r there will be more "kids" asking for a pet reptile. I figure there is lots of customers out there, as long as they have good luck, good success, they will stay in the hobby.

[muddoc]

Although the numbers of Ball Pythons produced and sold are very much higher han the number of Tegus and Rainbow Boas, I can see the market following similar trends of the two mentioned species. Rainbow Boas have been very easy to watch do this. They will sell for about $120 to $135 and everyone will produce them, as it is a profitable project at that price. Once everyone tries to cash in on the high price, the production outweighs the demand, and the price starts dropping. When the price starts nearing $65, people quit breeding, because it is not profitable at that price. Guess what happens next? noone is producing them, because they are too cheap, but the few that have produced them, because demand is high and supply is low. The next thing that happens is that the price starts rising again, and the cycle repeats itself. This same cycle has happened with Tegus in the past. This is a textbook example of how Supply and Demand works.

I would expect that some people will scale back on Ball Python production next year, due to alot of left over babies from the previous season, and the price is too low to profitably produce some things. Just imagine that ina 2-3 years, it may be almost impossible to find a plain old Pinstripe (I say that loosely, as I don't think there is anything plain about the gene). When that happens, it is possible that the price could go up. We haven't seen that in quite some time in the Ball Python market.

Just my .02,