mike,
im was in the same situation only mine was a huge exception to all the rules.
i cut and it took 5 days for it to come completely out of the egg but still attached. another 3 days and it was loose with the umblical still there. now im on my 3rd week and the umbilcal is almost gone but the baby hasn't shed. im thinking as soon as the umbilcal is completely gone, it will shed.
it is a fiesty little one though!! she nips me every time i pick her up.
my point is.....you can never tell!!! just sit back and wait for it all to happen!!