Opening the tub lid is equivalent to opening your incubator and since the probe is never removed from the bator with the tub, the temps don't change (apart from having opened the incubator). When I monitor my temps they are the same next to the tub as inside it. Thats why keeping the probe on the shelf next to the tub works the same as keeping the probe in the tub (basically just inches away). Either way works imo.