Are pythons overrunning the Everglades?

[Jabberwocky Dragons]

Some experts now say no

(Reuters) - Reports that Burmese pythons are devouring almost entire populations of mammals in the Florida Everglades are premature, according to some exotic species experts and a co-author of a widely quoted study.

The idea of pythons annihilating the Everglades made headlines after a January 30 study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science said researches found severe declines in the population of small and mid-sized mammals.

The study presented data supporting its hypothesis that "Burmese pythons have severely reduced populations of several species of formerly common mammals" in the Everglades.

"Do I think we have an impending disaster? I don't think so," said Scott Hardin, exotic species coordinator for the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission.

"That study should have never made it to the light of day," said Florida herpetologist Shaw Heflin, known to many as host of National Geographic's "Python Hunters" show. "I don't see anything thus far to point to the fact that these pythons are causing serious harm."

The study compared sightings of animals along park roads before and after the year 2000, which is when the authors say pythons were recognized as being established in the park.

It found a 99.3 percent decrease in observed raccoons and a 98.9 percent decrease in observed opossums, the two most frequently encountered species, as well as decreased sightings of white-tailed deer, bobcats, rabbits and foxes. Sightings of rodents, coyotes and Florida panthers increased.

"The magnitude of these declines underscores the apparent incredible density of pythons in the Everglades National Park," the study concluded.

Everglades National Park spokeswoman Linda Friar said park biologists have "no hard science" demonstrating there has been a dramatic reduction in mammal populations.

Most of the 1.5 million-acre park is inaccessible wilderness.

The size of the python population is unknown with estimates ranging from a few thousand to tens of thousands, according to Friar. Many pythons are believed to have succumbed from the cold during the 2009 and 2010 winters, according to Heflin and Hardin.

Heflin criticizes the authors of the study for failing to fully investigate and dispose of other factors that could account for their observations, including a decade-long drought, cyclical population fluctuations, increased development and pollution.

"There's almost always some other factors going on and certainly in the Everglades, we know that hydrology and water levels plays a huge role in animal abundance," Hardin said.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...81N24120120224

So here's one of several major flaws in this ridiculously poorly conducted study. It is not a hard science study so they are going to be looking for correlations to prove their point. Unfortunately for the authors, one can't just pick and choose which data supports your theory and which doesn't. This is my favorite:

Sightings of rodents, coyotes and Florida panthers increased.

This is the exact opposite of what would be expected if the python population was out of control. Rodents, the ideal prey for most sizes of python, should rapidly be decreasing in such a scenario. Likewise, as near or actual apex predators, Coyotes and Florida Panther populations should also be declining if Pythons were responsible for the decimation of most other prey species. There is no way possible for populations of other top predators to increase if pythons were single-handedly wiping out their food sources.

I read several parts of the report used to justify the recent nationwide banning the interstate transport of several snake species. If the "science" behind it wasn't so scary, it would laughable. One supportive reason for the ban was due to Global Warming... Washington state and New Hampshire will soon become sub tropical climates and capable of supporting wild Burmese pythons...seriously

I think if Washington and New Hampshire ever become sub-tropical or tropical, we are going to have much much bigger things to worry about than a few wild pythons minding their business in the woods.

[Foschi Exotic Serpents]

It's interesting you mention those things since this new report I'm posting has come out... The planets temperature hasn't risen in 15 years and none of the "global warming" projections have been met.. It's actually cooled slightly...

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencete...ing-again.html

"The supposed consensus on man-made global warming is facing an inconvenient challenge after the release of new temperature data showing the planet has not warmed for the past 15 years."

"Based on readings from more than 30,000 measuring stations, the data was issued last week without fanfare by the Met Office and the University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit. It confirms that the rising trend in world temperatures ended in 1997."

"CO2 levels have continued to rise without interruption and, in 2007, the Met Office claimed that global warming was about to ‘come roaring back’. It said that between 2004 and 2014 there would be an overall increase of 0.3C. In 2009, it predicted that at least three of the years 2009 to 2014 would break the previous temperature record set in 1998. So far there is no sign of any of this happening. But yesterday a Met Office spokesman insisted its models were still valid."

"Dr Nicola Scafetta, of Duke University in North Carolina, is the author of several papers that argue the Met Office climate models show there should have been steady warming from 2000 until now’.

‘If temperatures continue to stay flat or start to cool again, the divergence between the models and recorded data will eventually become so great that the whole scientific community will question the current theories, he said.

He believes that as the Met Office model attaches much greater significance to CO2 than to the sun, it was bound to conclude that there would not be cooling. The real issue is whether the model itself is accurate, Dr Scafetta said. Meanwhile, one of America’s most eminent climate experts, Professor Judith Curry of the Georgia Institute of Technology, said she found the Met Office’s confident prediction of a negligible’ impact difficult to understand.

The responsible thing to do would be to accept the fact that the models may have severe shortcomings when it comes to the influence of the sun, said Professor Curry. As for the warming pause, she said that many scientists are not surprised’."

"She argued it is becoming evident that factors other than CO2 play an important role in rising or falling warmth, such as the 60-year water temperature cycles in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans.

They have insufficiently been appreciated in terms of global climate, said Prof Curry. When both oceans were cold in the past, such as from 1940 to 1970, the climate cooled. The Pacific cycle flipped back from warm to cold mode in 2008 and the Atlantic is also thought likely to flip in the next few years .

Pal Brekke, senior adviser at the Norwegian Space Centre, said some scientists found the importance of water cycles difficult to accept, because doing so means admitting that the oceans – not CO2 – caused much of the global warming between 1970 and 1997.

The same goes for the impact of the sun – which was highly active for much of the 20th Century.

‘Nature is about to carry out a very interesting experiment, he said. Ten or 15 years from now, we will be able to determine much better whether the warming of the late 20th Century really was caused by man-made CO2, or by natural variability.’

Meanwhile, since the end of last year, world temperatures have fallen by more than half a degree, as the cold La Nina effect has re-emerged in the South Pacific.

We’re now well into the second decade of the pause, said Benny Peiser, director of the Global Warming Policy Foundation. If we don’t see convincing evidence of global warming by 2015, it will start to become clear whether the models are bunk. And, if they are, the implications for some scientists could be very serious."

[snake lab]

Global warming isnt real? Damn that al gore.

[Ohlacey]

Interesting article I was forwarded the other day in relation to cyclic warming. It's horse related, but pertains to the subject matter.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases...0223142634.htm

" As scientists continue developing climate change projection models, paleontologists studying an extreme short-term global warming event have discovered direct evidence about how mammals respond to rising temperatures. "

[Foschi Exotic Serpents]

That is interesting but I noticed how they mentioned the thermal maximum of 1989, and then nothing about how the temperatures have dropped slightly since then. If this is true, and my article proves true over the next 15 years like those scientists are claiming it very well may, then horses, and other mammals, are going to get bigger due to the colder climate.

That would also mean the snakes they have banned and the others they want to ban don't stand a chance anywhere in the united states.

[Giftbearer]

When I read the original post I didn't interpret that the original poster was saying she bought the flawed science, but that she was finding that many of the claims in it weren't true because other experts were finding that the first study jumped the gun.

Additionally I read the last part to say that the assumption that most of the Burms loose in the Everglades were due to being released by irresponsible owners was not true.

However; Gillian, I think one of the statements people were reacting to negatively/suspiciously was that you said that people you knew who owned pythons were the type to let them go once they grew too big for them to deal with.

I realize that people who own snakes can be as biased as those who don't by the exposure to all the propaganda flying around in the state of Florida, but making such assumptions about your neighbors really doesn't help the hobby.

As snake lovers we all should assume the best of people rather than the worst. Those people may make just fine snake owners. You can't pre-judge.

There are enough "snake police" out and about with all the banning going on. We don't need to do it to each other.

[Giftbearer]

On the topic of climate/environmental changes; there are many things which could change the numbers of prey animals and other predators. The encroachment of humans into natural habitat is a big factor; not only in Florida, but in other places.

I live in Georgia, and in recent years there have been more Copperheads in rsidential areas and new Coyotes in parts that never used to see any at all.

It is very possible that as more people populate Florida the populations of all types of animals increase and decrease as everybody shifts around trying to adapt and find territory. This could possibly have nothing to do with Pythons at all.

Meaning being; there could be no correlation whatsoever and it could be that whatever pythons there are out there might have existed coincidentally alongside other changes in habitat.

[Don]

It is odd how feral cats are never mentioned when talking about the decrease in population of raccoons, rabbits and other small animals. The feral cat population in Florida really is out of control, but you don't see that on the news much.

[dr del]

Welcome to "global dimming" - let the flim flam and chickanery commence.

[Ohlacey]

@ Foschi - I noticed that the temperature drop was unincluded as well, but it seems unquestionable to me. In a state like Florida it's been pretty obvious... even now when, a decade ago, February days averaged in the high 80s to high 90s, we're sitting in the 70s. This past winter I had to break the ice off of thoroughbred water troughs every morning before sunrise.

@ Gift - In reference to my post, I agree. I'm so used to the world of horses where the only issues (and there are MANY) are absolutely caused by human hand. In the equine world, more oft than not dealing with racing TBs, people are dishonest and unaccountable. I guess I've been a bit wrongfully conditioned. Though my bests interests lay with the animals, I'm quick to assume guilt falls on the shoulders of those who keep them. A bit hypocritical, really... I'm thankful for the opportunity to step back and see a community of snake and reptile owners who stand by their word and their animals.

The feral cats here are terrible. Boca and the surrounding areas (Pompano Beach, Boynton Beach, Deerfield Beach) actually acknowledge several "registered feral communities". -_-'