How many eggs to prove a dominant homnozygous?

[OhhWatALoser]

I posted in another thread, but I thought this would make a good poll, how many eggs to you feel you need to see, to say you feel confident you have a dominant homozygous?

I realize it would never would never be 100% proven ever, since there is always a small chance that the heterozygous spider is always throwing its spider gene, but
Chance of a het spider throwing all spiders for....
5 eggs = 1/32
10 eggs = 1/1024
15 eggs = 1/32,768
20 eggs = 1/1,048,576
27 eggs = 1/134,217,728 (Time to play the lottery)

27 eggs is when bhb said their homozygous pin was in fact homozygous. What do you think? Looking at the odds, I'd say i feel good around 15 eggs. How bout you?

[mainbutter]

At 4 I'd call it great odds.

At 6 I'd begin to question, if it came from a clutch that might theoretically yield such an animal.

At 7 or 8 I'd think 'hey, this thing very well might a homozygous dominant!'

At 10 I'd feel sure, but uneasy enough to label it as such to the public if no such animal had been produced as of yet. 1 in 1024 is pretty tiny, and far beyond "a reasonable doubt" in my mind.

15, I'd definitely label it as such.

[OhhWatALoser]

Some people picked 30+ eh? How many then?

[dr del]

Every one for the rest of his breeding life.

I ticked 30+ because 30-50 seemed like a nice round number with vanishingly small odds of it being pure luck.

But if on egg 49 he hatched a non-morph that's the end of the argument.


dr del

[Freakie_frog]

I would say that if you bred three different girls got an average of 6 eggs per and got all spiders every year for 3 years, then I'd say it's a pretty sure thing

[mainbutter]

Also I forgot to say, the number of eggs I'd have to see to feel comfortable saying an animal is a homozygous dominant genotype for a NEW MORPH is lower than the number of eggs I'd need to see from a spider or other morph that has been around a while and we SHOULD have seen homozygous forms from already.

[LotsaBalls]

You would also need to have virgin girls to eliminate the retention possibility.

[OhhWatALoser]

Every one for the rest of his breeding life.

I ticked 30+ because 30-50 seemed like a nice round number with vanishingly small odds of it being pure luck.

But if on egg 49 he hatched a non-morph that's the end of the argument.


dr del

obviously 1 non-morph proves it not being homozygous (aside from a mutation happening right before your eyes) and the chances of that happening might be better than you getting 49 eggs all morphed with a heterozygous animal, since is 560 trillion to 1.

It was just something I thought about reading another thread, also you always hear rumors of "super spiders", i was just curious IF someone thought they had one, when can they go public with it and say, i am confident this is a homozygous animal.

[MoshBalls]

Very interesting. I would be happy with it after about 15, with more than one female. I would normally agree that 1 non would definitely be a deal breaker, but you would have to consider sperm retention in that case. If you breed out 100 more all of that morph then you may consider that the one was due to sperm retention.

It is funny my husband and I were discussing how would you know if a BEL had the spider gene? After a lot of debate I finally laughed and said oh duh, you would know when it started doing the Stevie Wonder. But seriously What if you had a super lesser x super mojave. It would still be a BEL but would only throw BELS.

[OhhWatALoser]

Very interesting. I would be happy with it after about 15, with more than one female. I would normally agree that 1 non would definitely be a deal breaker, but you would have to consider sperm retention in that case. If you breed out 100 more all of that morph then you may consider that the one was due to sperm retention.

It is funny my husband and I were discussing how would you know if a BEL had the spider gene? After a lot of debate I finally laughed and said oh duh, you would know when it started doing the Stevie Wonder. But seriously What if you had a super lesser x super mojave. It would still be a BEL but would only throw BELS.

How often does sperm retention happen? Same chances as egg 30?

Also lesser and mojave gene lay on the same locus (call it being part of the same complex), so you cannot have a lesser/lesser/mojo. only lesser/lesser, mojo/lesser, or mojo/mojo.