My First Project... a little understanding.

[PaseQB]

So starting this season I've decided to try and lay the groundwork for my first "Project". In my previous post I mentioned I kept balls for about 8 years and I've always had a thing for albinos and Pied. The more time that I spent looking around the more seduced I found myself becoming with other morphs. After doing some thinking and (dollar counting) I've decided that I'm gonna stick to my original Idea and stay with albino and pied. I plan on going to Northern Berks on the first and see what I can find there and looking around on line. I plan on picking up a albino and if at all posible a pair of pied hets.

My "Goal" would be an ALBINO PIED down the road but before I go out and start spending I want to make sure I understand the "Theory" behind
what I'm taking on.


If I started with a Albino and a pair of Pied Hets and I pred the hets I'd have a 25% shot @ getting a Pied and 50% pied hets and 25% normal...

Now If I got lucky and got the pied...and bred a pied does to an albino I would get 50% het Pied 50% het albino. Correct so far?


No let me pretend that by some divine intervention I got it right and then bred the het pied to an albino and a pied to an albino het (this is where things get a little murkey for me) would the previous odds hold for me getting a double het?

as in pied x albino het = 25% of getting a double Het?
or albino x pied het + 25% of getting a double het?

and then if I go het pied/het Albino x het pied/ het Albino = 25% chance of albino Pied????

I pretty sure I'm screwing this up somewhere but I'm not sure. Before I go out and start spending I want to make sure I understand what I'm up against.

I'm not even 100% sure that thats how you get to albino pied. I'd be greatful to anyone who can point me in the right direction or somthing I can read to .

Thanks

[Stewart_Reptiles]

Now If I got lucky and got the pied...and bred a pied does to an albino I would get 50% het Pied 50% het albino. Correct so far?

Pied X Albino = DH Albino Pieds (Normal looking offspring double het Albino Pied)

Breed your DH together and you will get 1/16 chance to produce an Albino Pied

as in pied x albino het = 25% of getting a double Het?
or albino x pied het + 25% of getting a double het?

pied x het albino het = 100% Het pied that are 50% possible het albino

albino x het pied = 100% Het Albino that are 50% possible Het pied

[PaseQB]

Many thanks I was sure I wasn't getting it right.... can you explain the one in sixteen odds?

I get the odds at the other stages but I feel like I missing the obvious when it comes to the oddds of the albino pied.

[Stewart_Reptiles]

Many thanks I was sure I wasn't getting it right.... can you explain the one in sixteen odds?

I get the odds at the other stages but I feel like I missing the obvious when it comes to the oddds of the albino pied.

The odds of breeding DH Albino Pied X DH Albino Pied get a little tricky but it would go like this

Double Het Albino Pied 25%
Albino Het Pied 12.5%
Pied Het Albino 12.5%
Albino Pied 6.25%
Het Albino 12.5%
Het Pied 12.5%
Albino 6.25%
Pied 6.25%
Normal 6.25%

[PaseQB]

I think I get it... with two recessives that could present visual the odds reduced by the number of variables

[RandyRemington]

Here is what I would do if I where starting today (I've already started with possible hets some time ago). This all assumes that you (like me) can't afford a female double het much less an albino and pied pair.

Buy a 100% double het albino pied male (very reasonable now) and as many het albino and het pied females as you can afford. Well, at least one of each. But a few more improves your chances of getting one up to breeding weight quicker (assuming you have enough feeders). But if you only have one het pied female and she turns out to be a poor eater might take a while. Also, the more females in general the more eggs and the more eggs the better your chances of hitting the 1 in 4 chance per egg of being either albino (from a het albino female) or pied (from a het pied female). In theory, you could have both albinos and pieds in two years. In practice don't count on getting eggs from a female in 18 months and hitting the odds the first time.

Depending on what you produce and when is where the interesting choices come in. Do you breed any daughter albino possible het pieds or daughter pied possible het albino back to dad since you know he carries both genes and you only want the question mark on the mom's side? Maybe at least you buy an unrelated double het male to avoid inbreeding. But I'd be tempted to use any keeper albino possible het piebald male or piebald possible het albino male to the females of the other morph. At least then the worst you can produce is 100% double hets after minimum of 4 years and you are finally at the start (lol). But if your possible hets hit on both sides (i.e. if your albino male that you produced is also het piebald and your piebald female is also het albino, or vice versa) you could produce a clutch of 25% chance albino piebalds and only 25% chance double hets with the remaining 50% chance visible morphs.

On second thought, why the heck would you be listening to me, I spent the last 15 years just to produce my first albino and I still haven't produced a pied yet. lol

[RandyRemington]

I think I get it... with two recessives that could present visual the odds reduced by the number of variables

The odds of producing normals go down too. Some people freak out about the long odds of producing the ultimate combo and forget this part. For example, if you had a pair of quadruple hets (lets say someone breeds an axanthic piebald to an albino stripe) then sure, your odds of producing the snow stripe piebald is only 1 in 256 per egg. But your odds of producing a complete normal (not het for anything) are also 1 in 256. Even your odds of producing normal looking animals go down to 81/256 (less than 1 in 3). So rather than only expecting about 1 /4 of your clutch to me morphs as when breeding single hets with quadruple hets you now expect over 2/3rds of your clutch to be at least one visible morphs and you could breed the pair for the rest of your life and still perhaps not see all possible combinations.

[OhhWatALoser]

another thought would be to look for a double het and then get a visual pied or albino so you can make something visual on your first pairing.

guess its all about how much you want to spend, the easist way would be to buy a 1.1 albino pied and then their offspring would be 100% albino pieds :-)

[PaseQB]

The odds of producing normals go down too. Some people freak out about the long odds of producing the ultimate combo and forget this part. For example, if you had a pair of quadruple hets (lets say someone breeds an axanthic piebald to an albino stripe) then sure, your odds of producing the snow stripe piebald is only 1 in 256 per egg. But your odds of producing a complete normal (not het for anything) are also 1 in 256. Even your odds of producing normal looking animals go down to 81/256 (less than 1 in 3). So rather than only expecting about 1 /4 of your clutch to me morphs as when breeding single hets with quadruple hets you now expect over 2/3rds of your clutch to be at least one visible morphs and you could breed the pair for the rest of your life and still perhaps not see all possible combinations.

Thanks for your input... It helps a lot in terms of helping me to understand the scope of what I'd like to do and some of the avenues I can take.

Logistically I understand that the odds are a little long but I'm not really trying to make a buck its just somthing I'd like to try accomplish. I've always wanted to breed my own morph. Hopefully it will catch my son's interest and we can do it together.

[RandyRemington]

The longest odds are if you don't try! Some are so worried about the chance of failure they don't give themselves the possibility to succeed.