Pied-$$??

[Adam_Wysocki]

A few thoughts... I think your Chinese food analogy was a bit off, Adam. I think a more reasonable analogy would be the electronics market. Prices always start out high, the companies doing the R&D sell high until the little companies start mass producing them and eventually people are buying $20 DVD players at Walmart. Being a breeder, you have a choice of being a low cost Chinese manufacturer, someone selling at the flea market, or a high end company catering to people that want a name, quality, etc.

The root of my Chinese food analogy is that there is no standard business practice where new players come into the market automatically undercutting the established players to compete. Yes, there will always be the recreational breeders, the wholesalers, and the swap meet guys ... but the people that want to make the investments, get into the so called "ball game", just don't need to do that in my humble opinion and if they do operate that way, they’re not helping anyone.

The problem with your analogy is that the ball python market hasn't gotten anywhere near the little company mass production phase. If you want to use the electronics market, how about plasma TV's ... Say Sony was the first company to bring the plasma TV to market (I'm guessing here, so help me if I'm wrong) ... the price is uber ridiculous ... like $15,000.00 for a 42 inch model ... Hitachi, Pioneer, Panasonic all rush to get their plasma TV's out ... Do they price their 42 inch models at $8,000.00??? ... H@ll no they don't ... they all went for about the same price. As time went on prices came down, but they all stayed pretty much comparable ... then the technology goes low end, is mass produced and everyone can afford it.

I see the ball python world right now as the early days of plasma TV ... the "players" are established and being established ... there's no need to have huge differences in prices because the sellers still have a good hold on the market … or at least they can if the people that are getting in don’t let go of it.

Once pastels, albinos, and pieds start showing up in PetCo ... well then I'll give you your $20.00 Wal-Mart scenario ... but using your example as a "company doing R&D" right now I think it's my duty to the people that I've sold investment animals to to keep those days as far off as I can.

-adam

[xdeus]

Once pastels, albinos, and pieds start showing up in PetCo ... well then I'll give you your $20.00 Wal-Mart scenario ... but using your example as a "company doing R&D" right now I think it's my duty to the people that I've sold investment animals to to keep those days as far off as I can.

I wasn't saying that's where the market is right now, but that's where it is ultimately headed and it would be wise to plan for it. In the mean time, you're just banging your head against the wall worrying about the odd guy that got his hands on a Lavendar Albino and is selling them at half market value. There will always be those guys out there and they will make some impact to the market, but there's really not much you can do about it. (well, besides educate the odd forum lurker reading these threads)

Okay, there I go with my laid back Californian attitude again. No wonder we piss off the rest of the country.

[Adam_Wysocki]

I wasn't saying that's where the market is right now, but that's where it is ultimately headed and it would be wise to plan for it.

Absolutely ... I promise you, my business plan is a good one.

In the mean time, you're just banging your head against the wall worrying about the odd guy that got his hands on a Lavendar Albino and is selling them at half market value. There will always be those guys out there and they will make some impact to the market, but there's really not much you can do about it. (well, besides educate the odd forum lurker reading these threads)

I'm not worried about the odd guy out ... like I said, that kind of stuff is going to be there ... Just like Sony doesn't worry about a stolen shipment of plasmas being off loaded in an alley effecting market price.

What does concern me is the trend in the hobby/business for people to "jump in", invest lots of money that they probably can't afford to invest, and then dump all over the prices in order to turn it around as fast as they can. I'm on the phone at least 3 times a week with hard working people that have spent money on ball morphs and are "doing it right" but are worried about how fast some prices are coming down. The truth is, that prices don't have to come down that fast in all cases.

The thing I've been harping on over and over in this thread is that people getting in should realize that they can keep their prices at the same level as the "big guys" and make money ... that's all. The longer and higher prices stay, the longer it's going to take for that mass market phase to hit and the longer people are going to see good returns on their investments year after year. If each year prices drop "just because", that just shortens the lifespan of this very very cool hobby/business/industry or whatever you want to call it. Chess not checkers!

I'm not trying to dictate market prices or threaten people or throw temper tantrums ... not my style ... but I think what I can do is try and educate as many people that will listen and hopefully generate some understanding that for the people that are looking at ball pythons as a side income to help fund a vacation each year or pay for some extra presents over the holidays, this can be a sustainable long term thing. You just have to play your cards right, work hard, and hang in there ... your business will do well if you act like a business.

Okay, there I go with my laid back Californian attitude again. No wonder we piss off the rest of the country.

We love that laid back California attitude!! ... Makes you seem like one of the only sane people on the board!

-adam

[SnakeySnakeSnake]

Even if the price did go down many fold, those people who are "doing it right" will still make a good profit, it just might take longer. If they have a plan, and understand the chance of the market going down, then it shouldn't worry them or take them by surprise right?

[frankykeno]

I've been thinking about a lot of issues raised in this thread being that Mike and I are at the beginning steps of all of this.

Thinking about Adam's words about working, marketing, etc. Who am I in this world of NERD and VPI...I'm a nobody. Why would you buy a snake from me at any price? Well hopefully if I work hard, show participation on boards, phone calls to others, network my butt off at shows, take great care of our collection and produce healthy babies, make my prices competitive but not yard sale, take the time to learn how to ship safely and stand by my animals even if I take a loss on one or two....maybe just maybe somebody will think my snakes are a good investment or a damn fine pet. I'm not going to get rich quick. Maybe I'm never going to get anything more than a family vacation or a bit of cash for a better mini-van but I am going to know that I did the work, I did it ethically and in the end I did it because I love ball pythons and want to make more of them for others to love and invest in.

Another thought. Mike and I don't invest in anything, ball pythons or whatever, if we can't afford to take the loss, even if it hurts. We don't go to a casino with our rent money. We don't buy snakes instead of groceries. Extreme examples but what I'm attempting to say is if you over-invest, thinking to get rich quick, without doing the hard slow work up front, expect to take some business losses, trying to jump years ahead of what you can realistically do...I think you risk a lot and you are going to end up either failing or dumping a lot of snakes on the market due to short term financial panic.

In the end it's been said over and over. There are no shortcuts in this world of BP's. I don't know much but I do know this.....it's about passion for the snakes, it's about cleaning up years of snake crap, it's about hours of research, it's about worry and crunching numbers, learning about ovulation as much as about business and marketing, about welcoming newcomers on a forum and shaking your head over some of them, hours on the phone and hours pondering if you've lost your mind...

but if it isn't also about hours of joy and wonder over the snakes...well...I'm not buying from you and you shouldn't buy from me.

[Adam_Wysocki]

Even if the price did go down many fold, those people who are "doing it right" will still make a good profit, it just might take longer. If they have a plan, and understand the chance of the market going down, then it shouldn't worry them or take them by surprise right?

Why do you believe that a person that prices their animals the same as the big breeders will take longer to make a good profit than someone that drops their prices? This is chess not checkers.

Have you ever sold anything before? Any sales professional will tell you, it's about the quality of the sale not the quantity. Dropping prices in order to make money by doing a volume business usually results in customers that don't care about you or your animals ... they just want the best deal ... they do the deal and they are gone forever. Holding your prices and focusing on individual quality deals one by one allows you to build relationships with your customers. It allows you to get to know the individual needs of who you are selling to. When those people are ready to invest more money, they'll be back. The customers that are buying cheap may come back to you, they may not ... it depends on where the best deal is.

If you're only looking to sell snakes for a season or two and then get out, well of course selling cheap and blowing out all of your inventory quick is probably not a bad idea. But, if you're looking to start a business selling snakes that is going to last 5, 10 ,15+ years with a large established base of existing customers that keep coming back year after year ... you're going to have to focus on quality sales, not quantity.

Look at breeders like BHB and Reptile Industries ... they sell huge numbers of high end ball pythons every year without a website, advertising, or even a single post on the internet. How do they do that? The do it because they started out focusing on quality sales and over the years built up a customer base that is so passionate that they spread the word about the business to all of their friends and people they meet and they keep coming back year after year.

10 years from now, do you want to be sitting behind a computer every day pounding away posting ads on kingsnake desperately trying to move your product or do you want to be sitting back listening to the phone ring and not even having to worry about ads? .... The difference is quanity sales vs. QUALITY sales.

There's a good book that really explains it well called "High Trust Selling" by Todd Duncan. It explains how to make more money in less time with less stress by focusing on quality over quantity. It's worth a read by anyone considering selling snakes.

As far as having a plan, it's a must for every business. The SBA estimates that 98% of businesses started without a business plan fail. Of course market prices are going to come down over time, but with a good business plan in hand, it doesn't matter because the plan will detail the actions you're going to take when certain animals get to certain price points and how your business will adapt in order to remain profitable.

For example ... 5 years ago my business plan had a section about pastels that forecasted production numbers and sales estimates. My current business plan doesn't have the word pastel anywhere in it unless it's used in conjunction with another morph (ie. super pastel, lesser pastel, lavendar pastel, etc) .... My business plan helps my business adapt to an ever changing market.

-adam

[SnakeySnakeSnake]

Why do you believe that a person that prices their animals the same as the big breeders will take longer to make a good profit than someone that drops their prices? This is chess not checkers.

Have you ever sold anything before? Any sales professional will tell you, it's about the quality of the sale not the quantity. Dropping prices in order to make money by doing a volume business usually results in customers that don't care about you or your animals ... they just want the best deal ... they do the deal and they are gone forever. Holding your prices and focusing on individual quality deals one by one allows you to build relationships with your customers. It allows you to get to know the individual needs of who you are selling to. When those people are ready to invest more money, they'll be back. The customers that are buying cheap may come back to you, they may not ... it depends on where the best deal is.

If you're only looking to sell snakes for a season or two and then get out, well of course selling cheap and blowing out all of your inventory quick is probably not a bad idea. But, if you're looking to start a business selling snakes that is going to last 5, 10 ,15+ years with a large established base of existing customers that keep coming back year after year ... you're going to have to focus on quality sales, not quantity.

Look at breeders like BHB and Reptile Industries ... they sell huge numbers of high end ball pythons every year without a website, advertising, or even a single post on the internet. How do they do that? The do it because they started out focusing on quality sales and over the years built up a customer base that is so passionate that they spread the word about the business to all of their friends and people they meet and they keep coming back year after year.

10 years from now, do you want to be sitting behind a computer every day pounding away posting ads on kingsnake desperately trying to move your product or do you want to be sitting back listening to the phone ring and not even having to worry about ads? .... The difference is quanity sales vs. QUALITY sales.

There's a good book that really explains it well called "High Trust Selling" by Todd Duncan. It explains how to make more money in less time with less stress by focusing on quality over quantity. It's worth a read by anyone considering selling snakes.

As far as having a plan, it's a must for every business. The SBA estimates that 98% of businesses started without a business plan fail. Of course market prices are going to come down over time, but with a good business plan in hand, it doesn't matter because the plan will detail the actions you're going to take when certain animals get to certain price points and how your business will adapt in order to remain profitable.

For example ... 5 years ago my business plan had a section about pastels that forecasted production numbers and sales estimates. My current business plan doesn't have the word pastel anywhere in it unless it's used in conjunction with another morph (ie. super pastel, lesser pastel, lavendar pastel, etc) .... My business plan helps my business adapt to an ever changing market.

-adam

I was trying to address the concerns of the people you said kept calling you about prices dropping, not argue the point that I think it would take longer... this was the hypothetical if the real, actual, market price was dropping, it would take them longer, but not much, IE It shouldnt really be a concern for them.

sorry if i wasnt clear

[ssscales]

I wasn't saying that's where the market is right now, but that's where it is ultimately headed and it would be wise to plan for it.

The way most will plan for this drop or take advantage of the drop is to produce more quantity. Today's Super Pastel is $9,000, a few years from now $5000. Will this mean less people will be buying Supers or more? I'd say more people will pay $5000 and a lot more will pay $2000 and even more $1000. As prices go down, the guy who got in at $10K and only produces one clutch with 1-2 Supers may be upset, but what about the guy who got in and has prepped 20 Pastels and drops 18 clutches and knocks out 20 Supers?

Even if the price did go down many fold, those people who are "doing it right" will still make a good profit, it just might take longer. If they have a plan, and understand the chance of the market going down, then it shouldn't worry them or take them by surprise right?

It's not that it may take longer, as prices go down some breeders will account for this and produce more.

Absolutely ... I promise you, my business plan is a good one.

I'm not worried about the odd guy out ... like I said, that kind of stuff is going to be there ... Just like Sony doesn't worry about a stolen shipment of plasmas being off loaded in an alley effecting market price.

What does concern me is the trend in the hobby/business for people to "jump in", invest lots of money that they probably can't afford to invest, and then dump all over the prices in order to turn it around as fast as they can.

The thing I've been harping on over and over in this thread is that people getting in should realize that they can keep their prices at the same level as the "big guys" and make money ... that's all. The longer and higher prices stay, the longer it's going to take for that mass market phase to hit and the longer people are going to see good returns on their investments year after year. If each year prices drop "just because", that just shortens the lifespan of this very very cool hobby/business/industry or whatever you want to call it. Chess not checkers!

-adam

I agree that the odd guy out there with a pair of Hets won't make much of a dent. What is worrisome is the guy who just mortgaged his house, or withdrew his 401K or just had the cash from other ventures to buy up a dozen of this, a dozen of that, two dozen of this and 100 normal females and just sit on them. A few years from now, a few of these breeders producing 100 of this, 100 of that, 50 of this, 50 of that and selling at 25-50% less just because they can and still turn a profit, can hurt the market for others! Or are they just focused on selling at a different tier in the market?

I'm not comparing snakes to Wal-Mart or a power drill, but now that we're talking business. Would you consider Wal-Mart a bad business model?

I see this like Sears and Kmart being pissed at Wal-Mart because they sold for less, was Sam Walton so wrong? Sears sales were about $40B in 05, Kmart about $30B, Wal-Mart sales last year about $230B. Instead of making a $10.00 profit on a certain product, Wal-Mart said I'll sell 10 at $1.00 profit margin. Did the formula fail?

Wal-Mart is probably one of the most hated companies on earth according to some. They've closed down hundreds if not thousands of mom and pop shops along with some large companies and manufactures in the US. They've taken away thousands of middle to high paying jobs from the US to import cheaper goods, sure they employ over a million, but most of them are at minimum wage!

So how is it Wal-Mart is the largest company on the planet? Are they the oldest? Were they here 1st? Did they compete dollar for dollar with their competitors?

They must've done something right, by any comparison Wal-Mart is considered the most successful company in the world. Burdines, Macy's and even Target don't want to be compared to Wal-Mart and try extremely hard to separate themselves from it, but while their sales are stagnant or going downward, while other companies are laying off thousands….Wal-Mart opened another 1000 stores and sold another $50B.

Don't get me wrong guys!
Example: I definitely don't want to see 06 Albino Boas being sold for $500 on KS by 10-20 breeders in a few months, while I planned on pricing them at $800-$1000.

Will anyone care that I paid 3X's that a few years back only to see the price drop down to $500? Should I be upset because I paid 3X's that, should I kick myself for not waiting a few year and saved? If I do see prices drop, what can I do about it? Blame someone? About what?

[ssscales]

You gotta love this thread and website members, it's been very civilized even with the hot topics discussed and opinions voiced.

[JLC]

You gotta love this thread and website members, it's been very civilized even with the hot topics discussed and opinions voiced.

Amen to that! All you guys have been awesome and an example to the rest of the Internet community out there about how to carry on such a discussion!