Are BP morphs the next "dot.bombs"?

[RWillinnable]

I am not sure I have an opinion on the matter, but would like to hear what you all think. Do you think the market will be there for all the bp's that will be produced in the next ten years or so, or will the market crash like with the "dot.bombs"?

[ddbjdealer]

Well, in order to answer this question, you'd have to take a look at all of the big breeders out there. Take a look at how many animals they produce a year... how many they sell, and for what prices they're selling them for... Take a look at RDR's available page... then take a look at his clutch records.... Then ask him how much he pays in estimated quarterly tax payments.

I think things are holding true for right now...

But seriously, I think the reason the market is holding so well is because of all of the "small guys" out there trying to get to be a "big guy". Look at my situatoin for example... I fell in love with BP's and started aquiring lots of them quickly... Lets say next year, I decide that I don't like BP's anymore (not gonna happen, but just playing devil's advocate here)... I would have invested well over $30,000 in snakes (that helped drive the market) and then sold them off to other people in my same position for the same $30,000.. or in most cases MORE (because of the weight they'd put on) thus, still driving the market.

There are so many people out there that get a hatchling female, and PLAN on spending three years to get her up to size to breed, and wind up either breeding too soon and killing her, or making her very sick, or not having the patience to wait that long.

I would bet that if EVERYONE that got into this to become the next RDR/NERD/TSK/8BP (like how I threw you in the mix, Adam? ) actually got big, and produced lots of animals, that yes, the prices would fall greatly, because there would be hundreds if not thousands of times the current number of BP's produced... and as so many people have pointed out.. it's all Supply/Demand.

Just my .02 on the matter...

[frankykeno]

The way I look at it is that there going to be a number of people that look at what some of the bigger breeders have done and think....whooooweeee I can get rich overnight! They are fools, at least in my mind.

If it's all about the money they aren't going to last and what they produce is likely to be crap because they didn't care about the quality of their snakes, their health, the genetics, the BP market and in the end....their customer. What they cared about was the bottom line and even though you have to realistic about that bottom line....if that's all there is I won't be spending dollar one with that so called breeder.

What attracted us to 8Ball was Adam's passion for Ball Pythons. Sure he's got to be a smart business man or he'll fail - that's a given. His passion guarantees me that he will strive to produce only snakes he himself is proud of....not just crap to make a buck off some idiot who doesn't know better. Breeders like Adam, Ralph, Kara & Kevin, Joe and many more....produce gorgeous snakes and encourage a strong viable ball python market, encouraging us newcomers with their wisdom, support and advice.

I can't think of another group of people I'm prouder to be associated with even in my own nobody from nowhere kinda way!


~~Jo~~

[wolfy-hound]

I would think that the market would be similar to the puppy market. Having bred yorkies, I got extremely high prices for mine despite the fact that people have been breeding and selling yorkies for about 100 years. My pups went for the top prices barring show dogs. And I had a waiting list that was 2 years long at onepoint, so I drove my prices up by double and not one person dropped off the list(I was TRYING to shorten the list).
If you are passionate and caring about the animals you produce and you produce great quality animals and back them up.. there is a market for them.
If you want to be the equivalent of a puppy mill(snake mill?) and produce the largest number of animals and invest the least amount of time and money in them, lie about them to get higher prices, then no you won't last.(** I AM NOT SAYING YOU IN PARTICULAR!! Just using it as a in general**) Those that invest their time and efforts and build themselves a solid reputation as a honest person who genuinely cares about the ball python.. I think they will continue to do well.
Just my own .02 and of course I am also hoping to make my money back in about 5 years. I want to produce the greatest animals I possibly can, and that is the bottom line with me. Healthy good looking snakes. It helps that I ADORE all my snakes even the cranky females that bite me every chance they get. I just think they are spunky.
Wolfy

[RandyRemington]

We really are still at the beginning with lots of rare morphs that are destined to drop in price as production ramps regardless of if anyone wants them to or not. And even IF the number of new imported morphs drops off there will still be tons and tons of rare combos to be made that can then go through price drops as they become more common. With animals that can reproduce geometrically price drops aren't necessarily a bad thing. Good producers will produce enough to outrun the drop and the end result will be more ball python morphs for everyone.

However, it will be interesting to see how the ball python market stabilizes for some of the more common individual morphs. It's always hard to know what the real selling price is but it doesn't seem to me that albinos or pastels have come down much the last few years. Are these morphs getting close to a stabilization price at which large numbers of new breeders will stop ramping up production? It doesn't seem likely that big breeders would be able to hold a set price on these more common morphs but rather that the price really reflects the supply and demand balance of the market. When prices are higher people work harder at producing more of that morph and invest more of their resources (females etc.) into it. As prices came down on albinos and pastels it seems likely that those who could would move on to more profitable projects (more rare morphs and combos).

Will we eventually (after a long long time) reach a time when most morphs and even combos are at a stabilization price and how high will that price be? It's a fair amount of work to produce ball pythons, if we get past the wild frontier days of rare morphs how many and who will be left to do the less glamorous low stakes work?

[elevatethis]

I think that the relative price of the base morphs (pied, pastel, hypo, albino, etc) will come down as the supply of them rises. Prices come down when supply is increased, the number of alternatives increase, and more perfect information about whats available is accessible(the internet really helps out there).

I think that the future in big $$ morphs are those 1 in 16 chance combo morphs, such as a caramel glow, orange ghost, etc. Keep in mind that BP morphs have only been around for 15 years or so. Indeed, what we see now is only the beginning.

[kavmon]

in addition to the above, i think there will always be a market. as prices drop the customer base increases ten fold. who wouldn't buy a pied,albino, or a lucy for 500-1000? (not saying that is the real price) just guessing down the road. as prices go down i think the big breeders will focus on less common morphs and bigger projects. the big breeders are "breeder's breeders" supplying the serious hobbyist and private breeders. the private breeders supplying the average herper. i think there is a "market" at every level. and it is great that you can join in on any level! if you want to earn 50k-100k you'll probably have to invest around that. there are alot of expenses involved and at each level they increase. what a cool hobby though! you get to play with snakes, hatch cool morphs and maybe make a buck or two!

vaughn

[gamebred26]

Yes but in the end there has to be a market for people buying these as pets....and I don't know one person who has a 10k snake let alone anything more then that...maybe a pastel...but I don't know anyone who has a lesser plat..clown...peid ....

no one ...no body ...nada...

yes breeders trade etc...but who is dumping cash for these snakes for pet purposes...with no intention to buy and breed to earn $$$ themselves...

no one....

[wolfy-hound]

No one is buying those NOW for pets. The point is that someday they will, with the price being more like the mentioned $500-1000

[gamebred26]

It's just like baseball cards they ain't worth **** unless someone is willing to pay cash...
here is a test got try and trade your Lucy ball in for a 911...see what they say to you....

the value that people are putting these animals is insane....

people are saying these are a good investment....not even close....the value of the more affordable snakes keep declining...look at nromals....pastels...etc. the market is so small and will become flooded values will drop....

plus no body is buying them anyway...

if you are looking at this for a return you are kidding yourself....it's an expensive hobbby nothing more....