het...?

[Marla]

Not to nit pick BUT...

The chance that a pair of 50% hets are BOTH hets is actually only 25%. However, the chance that they are both not het is only that also

That's exactly what I said above ...

But just as likely as their both being actual hets is that they're both normals, in which case all you will get are normals.

so if the original pair doesn't produce clowns you could breed offspring back to both parents and have a good chance of eventually producing a clown.

Of course you also have to deal with the odds of hitting on the 25% chance in one of the eggs in a small clutch. Here is a chart I made with the odds for certain clutch sizes:

http://snakemorphs.home.comcast.net/odds.htm#table

Thanks, Randy. I hadn't seen a formula for calculating odds across clutches yet. That will come in handy.

[WhiteTiger9188]

this stuff is so confusing..... i think i understand though.... thank you all for helping me out


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sry i had to let that out. everyone is so helpful here

[RandyRemington]

Someone said that the odds where 50% that they where both hets, however, you find the odds of both things happening (them both being hets) by multiplying together the odds of each unrelated event (the 50% chance that each one has) in order to come up with the 25% chance that both are hets. Since they each are also both 50% chance not hets it does come out the same as was also stated by someone.

[Marla]

Oops, you're right. Jennifer said

If you bred a 50% possible het with a 50% possible het, you have a 50% chance that both of those are actually 100% het.

and I think what she meant was

If you bred a 50% possible het with a 50% possible het, you have a 50% chance that each of those is actually 100% het.

but you're quite right that you multiply your odds to come up with the odds of both events occurring (ie., 50%*50%=25%). I was working out a lot of this stuff recently, so it's pretty fresh in my head, but I can certainly see how it would confuse someone who hasn't had a biology class with a portion devoted to genetics recently, and having to be careful on wording to avoid misinterpretation makes it even more of a challenge.