Need feedback

[BHB]

SPECTACULAR PLAN. While I have little to share financially I would certainly be willing to send what I can to help with this and do anything else I can do to help. This is exactly the thing I've been talking about in another forum.

Here is a letter I wrote to a PhD at Duke U about a cool video I'd seen. It was a great vid, except at the end he started talking about how the big snakes will move into other parts of the county. I wrote back in the friendliest, would like to know tone to try to get more from him and didn't get much that impressed me as provable or even really reasonable.

I'm no brain surgeon for sure but when I hear things like invasive, invasions, migration I want to hear about what these people are really thinking, believing and making judgments on. It is only by knowing every detail of their arguments, that you can take those arguments and idea's apart. M. Moore is a master at this technique and uses it to his advantage to create a scene where he can totally dismantle the false ideas & beliefs piece by piece and show how really silly they are.
This would take a very unique spokesman, who could (I do not in any way mean for this to sound calculating but perhaps LOADED FOR BEAR but carrying a bouquet) pull in the argument with interest and kindness and with interest, kindness and knowledge, then take it on, as it were and show how REALLY SILLY IT IS!

Date: Monday, November 9, 2009, 11:18 AM

Hello Mr. Joppa,
I just watched a video on the National Geographic site about the invasion of large species snakes into the Everglades. The video contained guests Nicolette Cagle and her husband with their Boa Constrictor. I was really impressed with the video and especially your idea of placing large heat mats out to catch the mother pythons. I'm wondering if this is being attempted and if so, how it is going. I'd think so big Kane heat mats for livestock would attract females like mad!
Being a reptile owner, I am very interested in all the information on this problem and the solutions being attempted. I was disappointed that at the end you made a comment about the potential for these animals to migrate out of the Everglades. I'm curious as to just how far you believe these snakes could go. It's always been my opinion that these animals could never endure night time temp drops of more than about 40-50 degrees for any extended period of time. I'd be really interested in hearing your take on that. I would love to share your knowledge with other reptile owners as well. I await to hear from you and understand you schedule is probably quite busy.
Thank you for your time sir.
Kris Wills



Hi Kris,

Thanks so much for writing. I've cc'ed Nicki Cagle, who was also part of the video you are referring to.

There are two competing studies on the potential range expansion of the burmese in the Florida Everglades. The USGS published a rather high-profile report that gained extensive media coverage and claimed an enormous potential range expansion of the species. The report can be found at (http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp​ID1875).

There is another journal article, which can be found for free at (http://www.plosone.org/article/info:...l.pone.0002931) that questions the results of the USGS report.

I don't put much stock in either of those studies. Both rely on a scientific method called "climate envelope modeling" or "ecological niche modeling". These techniques use the known range of a species to predict where it could potentially occur, but work quite poorly with an invasive species such as the Burmese. The Burmese has already shown it is capable of inhabiting ecosystems quite different from its native one. It is a top predator, adept on land and in water. Above a size class which it reaches in its first two years, it is relatively immune to predation. Many semi-aquatic ecosystems in the southern US offer a easy and hyper-abundant prey source (nutria). I am unsure why you think that the species would be incapable of weathering temperatures below 50F for any extended period of time, in my mind it would be quite possible. Anyway, those are just my thoughts.

Unfortunately, there has not been any interest from the parks service on pursuing the heat mat method I had recommended. That is too bad, because I agree with you that it should work like a charm! Have you had any experience with outdoor heat mat usage? If so, I would like to hear how things have gone for you.

Again, thanks for writing. I'm happy to hear you enjoyed the video!

Cheers,

Lucas


* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
Lucas N. Joppa, PhD
Nicholas School of the Environment

So I wrote him back again and told him that I was in Colorado. I talked about how the night time drops at anything past north Florida and possibly the southern most part of Georgia (in a warm year) did not seem, even close to suitable for a python. I never heard another word back. Now granted. I am sure this man doesn't have tons of time on his hands to talk folks like me but the point is, when people like PhD's start talking about this stuff people who don't really think things through can be very easily drawn in.

I think that a M. Moore'ish type discovery video would be wonderful. It is my understanding that National Geographic has even said (among others) that the original study results were highly questionable and based on bad science and therefore not worthy of making any decisions on. I also have heard precious little about any big numbers of Pythons being found in the Everglades and I have looked. The last number I heard was something less than 100 animals. FAR from the ten's of thousands some would of the scoundrels are yammering about.
I wrote to Greg Graziani when I heard he was involved in an effort to hunt for the python and this is the link he sent me to a video.
http://newsroom.blogs.cnn.com/2009/0...thon-trackers/

So, wow, sorry. Long post here but I wanted to let you know how TRULY interested I am in your idea!!!!!!! Like I said, I'm totally loving it and would do anything I could do to help. Even if it's gathering banter off the internet and sending a few bucks. WHATEVER! I'm in!

Great information! I could use you for sure on this. Please e-amil me and we can talk about working together! Thanks so much! Brian(BHB) bhb@comcast.net

[Dave Green]

Brian, I like the idea; however, I wonder if it would be more helpful to use the same money and time to fight the battle at hand. We do need to continue to think of new ways to battle this bill, and similar bills, but I wonder how many people outside of our community would watch such a documentary. I purchased Herpers and thought it was fun but how many non herpers watched it? If people aren't interested they may simply switch channels, that's what I do when I come across something I'm not interested in. Many folks would watch your documentary but most would already be on our side. If you do move forward I think a good angle may be to point out how our liberties are being taken away, our cause is just one of them. It's hard to explain to people why we should be able to keep these animals but everyone understands the loss of freedoms and liberties. Just a thought.

[dr del]

Hi,

How about;

Florida and the lies that killed herpetology

Snakes, Lies and everglades

The python and the politician

Nelson: a jackass for all occasions

HSUS: liars for a living

Who killed the pet trade

Who pinched my python

Snakes and freedom

Those are the only ones that pop into my mind I can put on here.


dr del

[Nate]

ha. doc you gave me an idea...

"Everglades...what lies beneath"

[singingtothewheat]

Brian, I like the idea; however, I wonder if it would be more helpful to use the same money and time to fight the battle at hand. We do need to continue to think of new ways to battle this bill, and similar bills, but I wonder how many people outside of our community would watch such a documentary. I purchased Herpers and thought it was fun but how many non herpers watched it? If people aren't interested they may simply switch channels, that's what I do when I come across something I'm not interested in. Many folks would watch your documentary but most would already be on our side. If you do move forward I think a good angle may be to point out how our liberties are being taken away, our cause is just one of them. It's hard to explain to people why we should be able to keep these animals but everyone understands the loss of freedoms and liberties. Just a thought.

I totally agree with approaching this as an invasion not of pythons but of our liberties!!!

[singingtothewheat]

Hi,

How about;

Florida and the lies that killed herpetology

Snakes, Lies and everglades

The python and the politician

Nelson: a jackass for all occasions

HSUS: liars for a living

Who killed the pet trade

Who pinched my python I want a t-shift that says this!!!!!!!!

Snakes and freedom

Those are the only ones that pop into my mind I can put on here.


dr del

[Nate]

Herp Crisis
Reptile Crisis
Cold Blooded Crisis


yeah..."Crisis" seems to be a popular "ZOMG" buzz word.

[dr del]

Few more;

Snake oil - the florida deception

Greed in the 'glades

The saw-grass and the snake

When bad science attacks


dr del

[BHB]

Brian, I like the idea; however, I wonder if it would be more helpful to use the same money and time to fight the battle at hand. We do need to continue to think of new ways to battle this bill, and similar bills, but I wonder how many people outside of our community would watch such a documentary. I purchased Herpers and thought it was fun but how many non herpers watched it? If people aren't interested they may simply switch channels, that's what I do when I come across something I'm not interested in. Many folks would watch your documentary but most would already be on our side. If you do move forward I think a good angle may be to point out how our liberties are being taken away, our cause is just one of them. It's hard to explain to people why we should be able to keep these animals but everyone understands the loss of freedoms and liberties. Just a thought.

I agree it is a tough thing, if we think short term we should put all our resourses towards this fight. And I would never want to take anything away from that fight, that being said this is the largest thing that has happened to our trade in the hobby's history. I think people outside the herp community would be interested in it if we took the Michael Moore angle of how the politicians cost the country 100's of millions of dollars over an invasive species law that was passed on bad science and only for political gain. If we went forward we would not make it a reptile film, there is no reason to make a film about this for reptile people. You could never compair "Herpers" to this project. I love the Herpers movie and Dav Kaufman has signed onto this project if we decide as a community that it's in our best interest. That's the big question at this point, do we want to as a community have this travicy documented from here going forward?? I want the masses, not the reptile people to realize the truth. I'm not sure there is a better way to get the truth out?? I am open to your opinions and if we as a comminity decide it's not worth it then by all means I will shelf it. Thanks, Brian(BHB)

[nyraptor]

Sounds like a great idea make that movie.