The market for new codoms....Up or Down? What your thoughts...

Well let me start by saying i have the utmost faith in this industry. I also own over thirty balls personaly and have several clutches cookin as we speak. With that said ive been keepin boids for 12 years, ive lurked in the shadowes most of that time and this is my first offical post on any forum. I was speaking with a friend yesterday on the current state of the market and this is the conclution that we came to.....The recessive market will be strong for years to come, its along time berore pieds,clowns,lavenders and that such stuff will be three hundred dollars. This friend recently acuired two very rare recessive morphs one of them being an Ultramel for under Five thousand dollars, this is in my opinion a great deal for a homozygos animale of that rearity. At VPI the barkers are selling their new Black azanthic at around 3,000 each. This brings me to my final question, the Mystic is listing at 3,250, the Phantom is at 5,000, the Paint ball and Black head are some where in the range of Three to Five thousand as well. So are codoms that will be reproduced much faster when let out on to the open market,keep in mind this price is for the base codom not the super form, are they realy worth the same price as some of the much rarer recessive morphs like the Black azanthic and the Ultramel,You pay the same price and you get a homozygos recessive that will be slower to recreate and hold its value in a more stable and much slower rate of decline. Simple economics....just wanted to hear you guys/gals thoughts. Thanks for reading and best regards, Eyeball

People can theorize all day but it boils down to "they are worth what people will pay for them". Mine are worth millions to me but I can only sell them for what people are willing to pay. If they can get that for them then I say more power to them

I think the market for NEW co-doms would be good, IF it's a remarkable co-dom. A co-dom that looks nearly identical to a normal, and has not proven a super, won't sell all that well, comparatively speaking IMHO.

I do think the days of a $100K for the latest morph are gone. Unless someone hatches/imports something REALLY amazingly different and proves it genetic, I doubt we'll see any heyday prices. But any new co-doms would be pretty sought after still, although it might take a little longer to get the good price, I think the seller would eventually get what they wanted.

I think the breeding part of the hobby needs to start going in a different direction. Prices are what they are. Some people find the deal of the century for an animal just to get (whatever) morph into their collection, some people pay 2x or more "list" value to find THE animal that they want for their collection. I think its nice that average income people can afford to get nice looking animals and morphs. I know if i got into this hobby years ago when i first wanted to, i could never afford anything.

I know, that I have been looking for above average to absolutely outstanding animals to keep and breed. I want to breed for looks, color, pattern, etc. Things that we can predict and enhance through selective breeding. There are a ton of browned out pastels out there, i don't want to create more average or poor morph examples, i want to create amazing animals that turn peoples heads.

That said, i dont even own an animal that is at breeding size (so close) . Im working on raising my snakes, getting to know them and their needs (even better than i already do) before venturing into breeding anything.

I think buying codoms is a bit of a risk just because they are so much easier to reproduce compared with recessives. So a three thousand dollar snake might come down in price alot faster if its a codom. That being said, I think alot of it has to do with whomever is in charge of the project. There are some people who prove a snake to be at lease dominant and put it right out in the market. It probably won't fetch as much money as it could just because people might not be willing to take the risk of buying an animal only to find out that there is no super. There are also some people who will buy a single male and breed him to 10 normals and before you know it, supply way exceeds demand. Good breeders are the ones who take the time to prove it out and see if the new gene fits well in combos before introducing the snake into the market. So while the codom market will inevitably go down in price quicker than with recessives, I think alot of it also has to do with the people working with those animals and how responsible they want to be with controlling how fast the prices will decline.

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Originally Posted by kthulhu

There are also some people who will buy a single male and breed him to 10 normals and before you know it, supply way exceeds demand.

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Hell yes I agree. You see a lot of people with like a spider and a pastel male and like 8 normal females. Money is the drive not the possibility of creating something amazing.

Thanks for all your thoughts and coments, but i think the main theme of my post is being missed. What makes a codom which is a VISUAL HET (ie.Phantom) worth more than a MUCH MUCH rarer recessive morph(ie. Black Azanthic) which is a HOMOZYGOS animal that took twice as long to make and there is only mabe ten in the world. That is like sayin my pastels are worth more than someone elses albinos. The sounder project is in the recessive because is will hold water long after the codom of the month has sprung a leak. Not sayin i dont love codoms cause i do but i wouldent invest in a codom if i can buy a rarer recessive at the same price,that tells me that the codom is over priced and the market is going to fall two times faster on the codom than it will on the recessive. OH ya and sorry if i steped on any ones toes by using their morph as an example, its just an example . i have the utmost respect to the breeders workin to prove new codome and id like to own a paint ball and a blackhead my self as soon as i can but ive spent WAY OVER my limit this year on recessives and my wife is already pissed at me.LOL. Thanks for reading and best regards, Eyeball

Its not really fair to compare the price of the base co-dom morph to that of the visual recessive morph... That base co-dom will still produce a Super the same way a Het will produce a visual recessive... That Super form will also be a way to continue making money on your investment and is just as hard to produce as the visual recessive... Seems like a no-brainer to work with visual Hets while also being able to produce a Super.
Take Albinos and Pastels for example... When comparing an Albino to a Pastel you would see a rapid drop in price... But when you compare Het Albinos to Pastels, the Pastels will draw a little more money while at the same time being easier to sell due to the Pastels being visual and not requiring faith that the breeder is telling the truth! When you compare the Super Pastel to the Albino, the Super Pastel still gets a bit more money, and again produces visual morphs as opposed to normal looking snakes that require faith in the breeder.
To ignore the Super form of the co-dom traits is automatically making your argument for recessives stronger, while down playing the true power of the co-dom!

that was a really cool way of looking at and it actually make sense.

Being In Canada man, Prices are almost always more (by a fare bit most times, I might add) then in the states. god do I wish I could buy snakes from down there.

Im not down playing codoms all im sayin is that some people are trin to sell a much more comon codom at the same pirce as a visual recessive. would you invest ure money in a more stable long term recessive or a codom which is actualy a visual HET. for example if u had the money for only one when they first came out would u have bought a pastel which is a visual het or would u have bought a pied which is a homozygos animal. You would have spent more money on the pied but u would have got a longer and much more stable return. That is the compairison im tring to convay. You dont have to agree with me but ive seen the economics of it work over the past 7 years. You will see a return much faster on a codom but it will also lose value much faster. I will never buy a new codom in its first three years because i know how quickly that decline will happen once it gets to the classifieds on kingsnake. This is a true example,you can research it because it is a fact, I watched adult pastels go from 3,000 dollars to 600 dollars in about 3 years, you dident see the pieds do that. The Albino was one of the first morphs produced in captivity,Bob Clark if im not mistaken back in the mid 90s and that animal will still be sellin for about 500 bucks retail this season, pieds will still be bringin 1200 bucks this season ....what are pastels sellin for ....oh thats rite bout a 100 bucks this season supers about 350,recessives are sold investments with 15 years of economics to prove it. I just dont think the current market supports new codoms being introduced at prices that are the same as the new and much rarer and much harder to make recssives. the only thing that makes them sell is the illusion of big money quick, im sorry to say for most that doesent happen. Take that same money and buy a pair of pieds and those babies will sell. Recessives will never loose their appel to the savy investor with a little more money to spend

hey bro move to the states i could use a wise investor and a solid partner...wait a minute dident i can my last partner because im to much of a controll freak....LOL. weve always got room in the south for another good ball breeder.......

True, man moving to the states would be good in this view, But what I like is getting into this market in Canada is dif. B/C not as many people up here seem to breed, but we do have one of the best breeders none from what I can tell. Markus Jayne. B/C of this the prices for good morphs here seem to stay high, plus it costs so much to ship from the states that they can keep em that way. lol but thnx for the invite:D

Your most welcome for the invite. i live one county over from what i consider to be one of the best up and coming breeders in the past 5 years. im not goin to say his name cause he is well known is the bp.net forums and he probly dont want to be drug into this thread. Its good to have such people as close friends not only on a buissiness level but on a personal level as well this person has truly ben a blessing to work with and share our thoughts on the industry husbantry and such. I even had the honor of caring for his AWSOME colection for about ten days while he was on vacation...wow what a rush.........................

You DO realize that the co-dom morphs you were using as an example (paintball and black head) are NOT common, right? The reason the price is so high on those is because there's very few if any breeders working with them yet beyond the original ones who discovered it. It's all about supply and demand.

I don't think there are "common" co-doms that cost more than "rare" recessives.

The phantam has been pretty tightly controlled by RDR, and few released. He has set his price to a high spot(which is what RDR does, which is a good thing), mainly because he produced that morph, and put his time into the project to prove it out. Using it as your example "common" co-dom is false.

Most of the co-doms that have been available generally do cost less than a recessive that has been available the same amount of time. Albinos and pieds have been around quite some time, and there's a lot of het/homo animals out there available. You would need to compare THEIR prices to co-doms which have been widely available the same approximate amount of time.

The more rare, or new a morph, the higher the price they can command. When only a couple breeders have that morph, they can control how many are available for sale, and keep the price high for a number of years.

I think your pretty set in your beliefs even as far as to downplay what Super Pastels are worth as opposed to Albinos or Pieds... I dont know if you noticed the rapid decline in recessive prices over the last few years or maybe you were just focusing on co-doms losing there value? How are Het prices these days?
Eitherway, your theory seems a bit flawed to me...:rolleyes: As long as your happy that you have invested in recessives, that is all that matters.

Breed what you really like and hope to break even prices are going to drop even faster in this economy. Every mutation will be a lot cheaper, I guess I'll repeat what some have said, now we'll see who really loves ball pythons .

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Originally Posted by m00kfu

You DO realize that the co-dom morphs you were using as an example (paintball and black head) are NOT common, right? The reason the price is so high on those is because there's very few if any breeders working with them yet beyond the original ones who discovered it. It's all about supply and demand.

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Mookfu is right it is not just the ease at which an animal breeds it is also its rarity vs. demand. However this also explains the price drop in codoms. They dro[p more rapidly because it is easier to reproduce them. Therefor supply goes up faster and price drops faster. This is basic economics 101 at its best

The best part of co-dom market is that once they hit a certain point where they become reachable to the general public. I can remember seeing Lessers for 50K not so long ago..the difference is that the money that animal use to sell for..two years ago say 2500.00 you now have to sell 5 or 6 animals to turn the same money. Your ability to produce the morph hasn't gone down simply the simply the amount of animals you have to sale to turn the same profit..

I can turn 80,000.00 a year selling pastels.. how well at 150.00 they are currently the most affordable BP out side of of YB or normals.. It means I have to produce 88 clutches of eggs with 6 on agverage from a spuer pastel to normal breeding. So with breeding 100+/- animals I can turn 80,000.00 a year 89 normal females that produce and 17+/- Super pastels with a 6 egg average at a mere 150.00 an animal mean 80K a year in sales..

People get down on Co-doms cause they hear stories about people selling 10-15 animals for 20K each and they were bank..Those days are gone..Now is what will seperate the mice from the men..Or the business from the hobby.

Can you make good money breeding base co-doms? YES!!
Is it work??? YES!!!
Will you even be a millionaire?? depends...How bad do you want it??

Another thing to think about is how quickly a return can be had from co-doms.

If you purchase a male and put it to normals, you can get morphs out straight away.
If you get a recessive male, and then have to go the het route, can take years.(and youre still not guaranteed on the odds)

By the time you get visuals from this method, prices will indeed have dropped.
Yes co-doms will fall quicker, but you have a better chance of a return, much quicker.

Pieds have dropped alot in the last few years, and now seem to have stabilised for a while.

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Originally Posted by paulaura

Another thing to think about is how quickly a return can be had from co-doms.

If you purchase a male and put it to normals, you can get morphs out straight away.
If you get a recessive male, and then have to go the het route, can take years.(and youre still not guaranteed on the odds)

By the time you get visuals from this method, prices will indeed have dropped.
Yes co-doms will fall quicker, but you have a better chance of a return, much quicker.

Pieds have dropped alot in the last few years, and now seem to have stabilised for a while.

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The difference is that hets are still price higher than normals..So depending on the recessive you might be better making hets if you can sell them..

Take a clown for example (Now I'm not sure the current prices on het clown price so I'm going to guess.) if you bred a clown male to 4 normal females every baby's is a het with males being 200.00 (again guessing) and females are 500.00 plus or minus..So your odds aren't will I produce a higher priced animal its which sex will it be..

So all you'd have to do is produce and sell 4 female het and everything after that is profit..assuming you don't count feeders, and other stuff.

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Originally Posted by paulaura

Another thing to think about is how quickly a return can be had from co-doms.

If you purchase a male and put it to normals, you can get morphs out straight away.
If you get a recessive male, and then have to go the het route, can take years.(and youre still not guaranteed on the odds)

By the time you get visuals from this method, prices will indeed have dropped.
Yes co-doms will fall quicker, but you have a better chance of a return, much quicker.

Pieds have dropped alot in the last few years, and now seem to have stabilised for a while.

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You are absolutely correct:D. The results overall are about the same when you consider the time required to reproduce in any quantity. Codoms vs. Rec.

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Originally Posted by Freakie_frog

The difference is that hets are still price higher than normals..So depending on the recessive you might be better making hets if you can sell them..

Take a clown for example (Now I'm not sure the current prices on het clown price so I'm going to guess.) if you bred a clown male to 4 normal females every baby's is a het with males being 200.00 (again guessing) and females are 500.00 plus or minus..So your odds aren't will I produce a higher priced animal its which sex will it be..

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Did I teach him well or what?:rofl::rofl::rofl:

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Originally Posted by stefanivanski

Being In Canada man, Prices are almost always more (by a fare bit most times, I might add) then in the states. god do I wish I could buy snakes from down there.

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I'm curious, how much does a say a pastel or spider go for in canada? I am from canada myself but I live in the states now. And where is the market there? I've bought my snakes from classifieds and and reptile shows over here. It seems that anybody I know in canada that owns snakes or reptiles aren't really aware of there being any "morphs"

Breed what you like and you will always be happy with what you produce.

The market is supply and demand. When the supply increases the demand and price will decrease.

The future is combos. The days of one co-dom to 10 normals doesnt make sense today like it did when a mojave(for example) was $4,000.

If you are in it strictly for investment reasons then you probably wont be very happy with the results. There are much safer ways to invest your $ that dont require cleaning poop and raising rodents;).

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Originally Posted by Freakie_frog

The difference is that hets are still price higher than normals..So depending on the recessive you might be better making hets if you can sell them..

Take a clown for example (Now I'm not sure the current prices on het clown price so I'm going to guess.) if you bred a clown male to 4 normal females every baby's is a het with males being 200.00 (again guessing) and females are 500.00 plus or minus..So your odds aren't will I produce a higher priced animal its which sex will it be..

So all you'd have to do is produce and sell 4 female het and everything after that is profit..assuming you don't count feeders, and other stuff.

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Yes I totally agree with what you are saying, BUT, if you are not an established breeder, try selling het snakes for what they are worth.
It is not easy, as people will only have your word as to what the animal is.

Dont get me wrong I love recessives too, and we do alot with both codom and recessive. I just dont agree that the prices hold better long term for recessives,as it is such a time consuming process.:)

For the last time im not sayin that these codoms are common .im sayin that they are more common than say a black azanthic from vpi and they will reproduce faster as they hit the open marker with no control by the original breeder. so their prie will drop faster makin thm a more shaky project than the recessive. now that i got everyones tail feathers ruffeled, my true thoughts are breed what u love. i just think recessives are a stronger more long term project with l;asting and stable rewards.

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Originally Posted by Freakie_frog

The best part of co-dom market is that once they hit a certain point where they become reachable to the general public. I can remember seeing Lessers for 50K not so long ago..the difference is that the money that animal use to sell for..two years ago say 2500.00 you now have to sell 5 or 6 animals to turn the same money. Your ability to produce the morph hasn't gone down simply the simply the amount of animals you have to sale to turn the same profit..

I can turn 80,000.00 a year selling pastels.. how well at 150.00 they are currently the most affordable BP out side of of YB or normals.. It means I have to produce 88 clutches of eggs with 6 on agverage from a spuer pastel to normal breeding. So with breeding 100+/- animals I can turn 80,000.00 a year 89 normal females that produce and 17+/- Super pastels with a 6 egg average at a mere 150.00 an animal mean 80K a year in sales..

People get down on Co-doms cause they hear stories about people selling 10-15 animals for 20K each and they were bank..Those days are gone..Now is what will seperate the mice from the men..Or the business from the hobby.

Can you make good money breeding base co-doms? YES!!
Is it work??? YES!!!
Will you even be a millionaire?? depends...How bad do you want it??

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Along those lines, as prices all, you have more potential customers. So while more are being produced, more people are able to buy.

I mean how many people can actually afford $25k on a single snake? Not many. But when it drops to $1000, more can afford it, and when its to $250 even more can afford it.

With codoms I think its a double edged sword, their prices will fall faster, because they're easier to produce, but because they get cheaper faster, you have more people willing to buy them.

big thumbs up to mathew....some one got it rite. thats the kind of response i was lookin for. good job!!!!!!!

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Originally Posted by 250rider

I'm curious, how much does a say a pastel or spider go for in canada? I am from canada myself but I live in the states now. And where is the market there? I've bought my snakes from classifieds and and reptile shows over here. It seems that anybody I know in canada that owns snakes or reptiles aren't really aware of there being any "morphs"

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I think the market is stronger price wise cause the recession is not as bad here so basement breeders are not dumping there snakes at ridiculous prices. pastels go for 150m-450f and spiders are 300m-500f. As for Canadian knowledge of the bp morphs check out T.U.G. and markus and jayne who was the 1st to produce the axanthic pied ball and t.u.g has the lava ball, the candy or toffee, and the lemon frost still to be proven. Looking @ kingsnake i find u guys sell cheaper but not the big breeders, and the prices are the same if not worse/better on other things ie: lessers here a 6-700$ wheras i have seen them the same on kingsnake but ghost have been from $350-600
wheras here it is $350-$400.
I like co-doms cause u can make a lot of mixes but at the same time recessive combos are worth the wait. Hard work breeds good results. I believe there will always be a pastel or spider lover cause they are so cool but who doesn't like a pied or albino so it is all the same, buy/breed what u like and as far as the co-dom market being up or down i would same natural as supply and demand results in pricing. Everyone already has breeder size spiders and pastels but not the novices and i believe a high white spider or a good quality pastel will still fetch more than market value competing with the price of a ghost or an albino depending of course on your region and market value in that area.

Just wanna share my 2 cents regarding the topic, Im from the Philippines where bp morphs are just starting to hit the market. 2008 was the year codom morphs (hatchlings) flooded our market, and a pastel female worth over $400 (our currency converted to dollar rate), a pastel male around $300, and a male spider around $700. As for the recessive traits, an albino female cost $1100, and a ghost averages $800. And year 2009 came where more morphs became available and I observed a significant downfall on the codoms pricing, like a good size (400gms) female pastel is just around $300. And that is for the fact that we only have the basic morphs available here.

Getting back to the topic, I can see that this can be also patterned w/ the way new morph pricing is observed on your countries. Codoms are way very easy to produce, specially if you are just aiming in producing "mass production" for the sake of recovering what you spent. And it will just take a few years to make their prices very affordable. Unless, one who started the morph chooses to selectively breed the morph, and choose the person whom to sell the animal. Like the current status of the banana morph. Unlike recessive genes who takes years to produce a visual, unless you have a pair to start with.:)