Bogus Het question ?

I have a 7 egg clutch that just hatched from Albino X Het-Albino (suppose to be a 100% Het) This female was strickly bred to the Albino male, all 7 hatchlings are normal Hets, no Albinos from a 7 egg clutch.

I realize there is a very tiny small chance of not producing visuals from a 7 egg clutch. I would tend to say she is not a Het :mad:

Can anyone well versed in math or stats provide the % figure of not producing Albinos from a 7 egg clutch.

Much appreciated :)

homo x het breeding will give each egg

50% chance of normal looking hets
50% chance of homozygous albinos

If that makes sense...

Sure.

What you do is look at the probability of not producing an albino for each egg, which is 1/2 from a Het x Albino pairing.

So for one egg, your probability is 1/2.

For two eggs, your probability is 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/4 (because these are independent events we just keep multiplying probabilities).

So for 7 eggs, the probability of not producing an albino is:

1/2 * 1/2 *1/2 *1/2 *1/2 *1/2 *1/2= .0078125, which is 0.78125%.

Meaning, there is less than a 1% chance she is actually a het. Did a reputable breeder sell her to you?

JonV

I might be wrong, but I think that with 7 eggs you would only have a 0.78% chance of not hatching out a single albino.

Edit: Jon beat me to it. That's what I got, too.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by PythonWallace

I might be wrong, but I think that with 7 eggs you would only have a 0.78% chance of not hatching out a single albino.

Edit: Jon beat me to it. That's what I got, too.

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Glad we agree!

JonV

I had a female that I tried to prove 2 years in a row, same scenario. After the first year several breeders I spoke to told me to try again as it has happened before. This year again no albinos so now I am sure she is not a het. I would give her one more try unless you have gotten some red flags about the breeder.

Crappy odds happen -- let the breeder know your results and give it one more shot -- a two season sampling will get you a more definite answer.

i agree. i breed a mojave to a normal female and got 12 eggs and i only got 3 mojaves so bad odds an and do happen

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Tosha_Mc

Crappy odds happen -- let the breeder know your results and give it one more shot -- a two season sampling will get you a more definite answer.

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Another possibility is that your het could be the product of retained sperm. You might want to ask the breeder what he bred the mother of your snake to the previous year or if he switched males in the middle of the breeding season.

Although unlikely it does happen. Some anaconda, retic, burmese etc. breeders get huge clutches of homozygous to het and have gotten no homozygous offspring.

Another "scary" scenario which got me thinking was a parthogenetic clone. Basically a clone of the dam. Although EXTREMELY rare it can happen and in a homozygous to normal breeding you could potentially produce a "normal" but think it's a het.

I believe this happend to me with a lemon pastel to an axanthic and made a single axanthic female like mom. A repeat of the same breeding produced no axanthics the following year (9 eggs each year).

My vote would be to let the breeder you purchased from know and try again.

Thank you all, she was purchased from a good friend and he has let the original breeder know of this situation. To be continued :)

I had the reverse happen this season-Pastel X Normal, 7 eggs. The result was 7 Pastels! Chances of that happening? Exactly the same-0.78%! So it does happen.

Last year I bred a Hypo male to a proven Het Hypo female (she produced hypos the year before), 7 eggs, 7 normals...

It happens

I wish we hat paternity testing available. It might turn out parthenogenesis isn't rare but with few breeding female morphs so far didn't get noticed.

It happens sometimes... I know of a Het Albino female that for 5 years of being bred to an Albino didn't once produce a single Albino. The breeder assumed that she wasn't a Het, sold her, and the very next year, she produced 6 Albinos and 1 Het (by being bred to a Het Male)... In the end, the odds will even out.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by LGL

It happens sometimes... I know of a Het Albino female that for 5 years of being bred to an Albino didn't once produce a single Albino. The breeder assumed that she wasn't a Het, sold her, and the very next year, she produced 6 Albinos and 1 Het (by being bred to a Het Male)... In the end, the odds will even out.

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I know of a breeder that put a Mojave to a Normal and produced all normals of that clutch. Numbers are just that..."numbers."

I personally thing that people put too much faith in that concept "odds." Sometimes they just don't go the way we want.:please:

I don't want to be an ass by bringing that topic back but I think those stats are wrong.

What are the potential scenarios ??
N for normal looking het albino and A for albino

1 : NNNNNNN (all normals)
2 : ANNNNNN (1 albino)
3 : AANNNNN (2 albinos)
4 : AAANNNN (...)
5 : AAAANNN
6 : AAAAANN
8 : AAAAAAN
9 : AAAAAAA

As you can see, there is 4 possible scenario that could occur from this breeding.

So what's the odds of not producing an albino from a 7 egg clutch ? 1/9 = 11.11 %
Probability of producing at least 1 albino : 8/9 = 88.88 %


Am I right ???

Bottom line is every egg as an individual had a 50/50 shot at being an albino. It happens, I had a 6 egg clutch last year Spider & pastel to normal got 6 normals. So yea it can happen. We must remember that the odds are not per clutch but per egg. We had a Spider to normal that gave us 7 eggs and only one spider..I'd say give her another year and if nothing pops out start questioning it..

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Watever

I don't want to be an ass by bringing that topic back but I think those stats are wrong.

What are the potential scenarios ??
N for normal looking het albino and A for albino

1 : NNNNNNN (all normals)
2 : ANNNNNN (1 albino)
3 : AANNNNN (2 albinos)
4 : AAANNNN (...)
5 : AAAANNN
6 : AAAAANN
8 : AAAAAAN
9 : AAAAAAA

As you can see, there is 4 possible scenario that could occur from this breeding.

So what's the odds of not producing an albino from a 7 egg clutch ? 1/9 = 11.11 %
Probability of producing at least 1 albino : 8/9 = 88.88 %


Am I right ???

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This looks familiar from stats way back in the day....need to pull the book off the shelf and wipe off the dust...

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Watever

I don't want to be an ass by bringing that topic back but I think those stats are wrong.

What are the potential scenarios ??
N for normal looking het albino and A for albino

1 : NNNNNNN (all normals)
2 : ANNNNNN (1 albino)
3 : AANNNNN (2 albinos)
4 : AAANNNN (...)
5 : AAAANNN
6 : AAAAANN
8 : AAAAAAN
9 : AAAAAAA

As you can see, there is 4 possible scenario that could occur from this breeding.

So what's the odds of not producing an albino from a 7 egg clutch ? 1/9 = 11.11 %
Probability of producing at least 1 albino : 8/9 = 88.88 %


Am I right ???

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1 egg is 1/2
2 egg is 1/4
3 egg is 1/8
4 egg is 1/16
5 egg is 1/32
6 egg is 1/64
7 egg is 1/128 = .78%

by your logic a 2 egg would yeild 3 out comes

AA
AN
NN

so chance would be 1/3 which is wrong, your forgetting someone

AA
AN
NA
NN

wish it worked that way, would be alot easier to get double or triple morphs lol.

so your table should have 128 outcomes thats also have things such as
ANAAAAA
AANAAAA
AAANAAA
ect

also i remeber Brian on snakebytes said that there was a guy who went through 20 or 30 some eggs before proving out a het. sometimes life sucks i guess lol.

And 1/128 = .0078 Or .78%

Whether you have 1 egg or 25 eggs there is still only a 50% chance for each egg to hatch an albino ;)

Yeah it sucks that it looks like you missed out on all 7 eggs but it's not unheard of. Better luck next year!

edit: ARGH i have been necromanced!

my 100% het female bred to my albino male produced 4 albinos & 3 hets good odds I think.I would try one more year if she don't produce she's a normal in my book.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by OhhWatALoser

AA
AN
NA
NN

wish it worked that way, would be alot easier to get double or triple morphs lol.

so your table should have 128 outcomes thats also have things such as
ANAAAAA
AANAAAA
AAANAAA
ect

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Thank you ! I knew I was missing on something here :)

I missed all the other scenarios :)

I remember that formula : P(X) = (p^x)*(q^x-1) or something similar. I will have to look back at my stats books. I sucked in stats damn it lol ! One of the 2 C I got in my degree I think, oh crap :(:weirdface.

looks a little complicated... just take your chance to hit (or in this case miss) which is 1/2 and take it to the power of # of chances, so each egg is a chance to miss, so 1/2 to the 7th power = 1/128