what are my chances?

i tried searching but numbers dont do so well in the search department. anyways

i have Frank right now, who is 66% het for ghost.

his "sister" is available for sale from my breeder, who is also 66% het for ghost. my breeder would sell her to me for cheaper since ive purchased from her before.

what are the odds that they would produce and real ghosts next year? im horrible at this "%, het, etc" talk. im sorry

Think of it this way...both are either 100% or 0% HET for Ghost. (there is no middle ground)


Each has a 66% chance of being a TRUE HET. That means if there were 3 babies in the clutch 2 were TRUE HETs and 1 is NOT.

The question is do you think you have both the HETs?

I wouldn't risk it personally. Since they came from the same clutch the odds are actually lower that you will buy both HETS from that single pairing.

Not easy to explain but hopefully helps you.

its says this on their website

june 2006 hatch, Sire was 100% Het Ghost and Dam was very light female



ive personally seen both the mom and dad of the snakes in question

They each have a 66% chance of being a 100% het ghost. So 2 out of 3 chance they could be het ghosts.

Would be fun to breed them together and see what comes out of it. Or you could get a 100% het female(or male) and prove them out that way.

yikes....so ide have to breed the babies (once theyve grown up of course) of the snakes i have NOW to make any ghosts?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by NotAnotherHonda

its says this on their website

june 2006 hatch, Sire was 100% Het Ghost and Dam was very light female

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If this is true then they aren't 66% but instead they are 50%

A 100% HET has 1 morph gene and 1 normal gene
The light female as 2 normal genes

So in 4 babies 2 would be HET and 2 would be Normal = 50%

maybe. if you get lucky you'll get ghosts. you have a 2 out of 3 chance that they're hets, but they could both be hets, you can only tell by breeding them.

statistics are never a definite thing, that's why they're percents and not a given

personally, i would use a 100% het male. try 3 or 4 50/66% poss. het girls. using more girls gives you more rolls on the dice!:D




vaughn

Quote:

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Originally Posted by qiksilver

maybe. if you get lucky you'll get ghosts. you have a 2 out of 3 chance that they're hets, but they could both be hets, you can only tell by breeding them.

statistics are never a definite thing, that's why they're percents and not a given

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Which is why I don't understand buying anything less than 100% het from someone reliable... I guess I'm just not the gambling type ;)

if you have two 66% hets and you breed them together. and by chance they prove out you would have a ghost if they don't prove out the first year keep all the babies and try again. could be a very time involved process. you would be better off buying a 100% het female to breed your male too quicker.

ok, so i need to hold off and find a 100% het female. thanks!

in the meantime, i need to learn more about this percentage stuff!


thanks!!!

don't breed a 100% het female to a 66% poss. het male!


max your chances go 100% het male to 3,4 poss. het girls. or 100% girls if you can get them.

at least go 100%het male...


vaughn

that would be better but he already has the male. and hes doing this for fun i think

Quote:

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Originally Posted by kavmon

don't breed a 100% het female to a 66% poss. het male!


max your chances go 100% het male to 3,4 poss. het girls. or 100% girls if you can get them.

at least go 100%het male...


vaughn

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by gncz73

that would be better but he already has the male.

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i know, you can get 100% het males with some size on them, reasonably priced now.

personally i would not gamble with a females breeding cycle with poss. males, imo. nothing is guaranteed and you don't really know when she'll go again!


vaughn

this is all just for fun, not tryin to make money off of these...but i see what yall are saying. thank you for all the advice!

it all depends on $ right now

you could also get a ghost male. If you breed them and you produce any ghosts, your female is het. Your chances of producing the recessive gene are only 50% with 2 100% hets. And if you don't produce any, you know for sure that all of your babies are 100% het either way.

ghost males are a lil pricey! haha

Quote:

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Originally Posted by NotAnotherHonda

ghost males are a lil pricey! haha

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True. I just wanted to explain how you could go about it from another angle. Maybe help you understand the numbers a little better.