Thoughts about future of BP market.

I know there are a lot of people here that breed professionally so I wanted to ask a few questions. I'm relatively knew to herping with two yearling snakes that i've had since they were hatchlings. After keeping snakes for a few months I realized breeding was something that I wanted to attempt. My primary reason being my love for the animal and the desire to become a reputable breeder like many of you here. But besides the primary reason there is also the reason of money which unfortunately makes the world go round so it can't be ignored.

I know the market is strong now but I'm curious what everyone thinks. My biggest fear is that a few years down the road I'll finally aquire a collection worth breeding and there will be no demand for my offspring. I'm sure its an extreme thought but none the less one that I've had. Especially after seeing some of these news reports about loose snakes and seeing the way the media puts such a negative association towards snakes, makes me feel like the laws that are always trying to be passed might happen since more and more people are buying and housing snakes irresponsibly.

I was hoping to start small and use profits from breeding projects to further aquire higher end morphs. I'm sure some of you know what boat i'm in starting out, but for those of you well established breeders who have a working knowledge of the current supply and demand of our market. What do you see in the future? What are the mophs that have retained their value over the years?

As of right now I have a normal female and a 100% het albino male. I have plans of aquiring a pastel and a few more females and starting with a small collection. I know its tiny but I'm only 22 and college is a big financial black hole as it is. Well I guess thats enough rambling, thanks to those that took the time to read all this and I look foward to some replies.

~Rich

Here is a couple threads on the subject.

http://www.ball-pythons.net/forums/s...ghlight=market
http://www.ball-pythons.net/forums/s...ghlight=market

Thanks for those two links read the first one throug and i'm on page 3 of 5 of the second...i needed a reading break, but i'm finding some good info thanks a lot. If anyone has anything else they would want to share I would appreciate it.

I think I agree with Ralph when he says that the fly-by-nighters are adding to the instability of the market. It makes sense. Some years ago the market was in its growth stage...few sellers many buyers...hight prices, huge profits...those profits cause entry in the market to occurr. That's where Jimmy comes in. Fast forward to 2006 and put the ball market in the "maturity stage" of an industry's life cycle, characterized by increased supply, market saturation, lots uncertainty...its just the normal way of things.

From my narrow point of view, I see the "quick money sellers" who are in it for a quick flip are going to be the first ones to get out. As all of these guys amass huge collections of co-doms and doms and get thier "ball mill" running, run into huge overhead and huge feeder bills, they find out that they'll actually have to do some marketing to sell their product, and they're going to find the juice not being worth the squeeze anymore as the supply increases and the price drops. Eventually, they'll be gone, and what you'll have left are the breeders who "do it right" and the hobbyists that do it for the love of it, and don't really *need* to sell anything to stay afloat. Those hobbyists might trade up for things that can't pay cash for, or wholesale their animals out to pay for feeders and supplies to make it a free hobby. Not a bad deal, IMHO.

elevate this, i want to give you an award for that reply. :rockon:

thanks, but most of those ideas i've conjured up from talking to more experienced people who've been around for longer than myself...so I think they get most of the credit!

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Originally Posted by elevatethis

thanks, but most of those ideas i've conjured up from talking to more experienced people who've been around for longer than myself...so I think they get most of the credit!

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And I hope they are right ..... :)

Neil

I mean, it makes sense. Do you think Jimmy is going to keep producing co-doms on a large scale, with each year requiring the same (if not more) overhead and getting less and less for each sale? Then throw in this- how's he going to sell XXX pastels in the first place when all of the "big" distributors have a list of 100 other jimmy's offering the same thing? Sell them himself, start a website, act like a real business? No way! He'll dump his collection and get out because the money isn't there anymore. Thats why they got into in the first place, remember?

Oh, I agree with the outlook. I just hope it goes that way. I hope that it brings more responsible "hobby" type breeders in, and flushes the "Jimmys" out. I think everyone that is in it for the love of it, whether they have 2 snakes or 200, would be better in the longrun.


Neil

in my oppinion the bp market is going to keep going strong although i can almost guarentee you that the future of pastels being 300-1000$ will go down to maybe 150-200.

I just finished reading through the 2 threads you posted Bill. Thanks for the link. Very insightful, especially the second one.

Sure, they'll keep going down- eventually.
I'm sorry, but if I do arrive at the breeding point, instead of just having 'morphs for pets' then don't think for a second I'll set my babies for 5$ less than Nerd, Ralph, Khal, Adam, or Clark.
I dont really see how the bp market can be in maturity after just 15 years or so with more morphs than albino. We've got: Dom, Co-Dom, and Recessive. There's still so many Double Recessives to get into not to mention how many triple recessives there will be. If anything in the next ten years from simply guessing as to what Can be produced- you're albino might not get much, but your albino granite pied might.
And think about it- a double recessive is a 1/16, what would be a triple? Who wants to tell me THOSE babies wont catch a few G's?

Is anyone here someone who recently got into breeding on the business level? Have you found it hard to break into the market? I can't help but feel that the handfull of big breeders out there will forever be ahead of newcomers. Breeding projects take years and when you think you've gained an inch they've gained a foot. Again these are just my thoughts so if there is anyone who is in this position I would really like to know what you think.

I think I understand what you mean, but ANYONE can BREAK into the BP market- you just have to do it. Its not going to be handed to you- I wont be seeing anything until Maybe 2010- but i've already bought my website and am working on layout/construction.
Simply because you're new doesnt mean you cant be great- RDR said on his website, five years ago- no one knew who he was, he was a nobody and Now look at him. You actually have to work and put yourself out there. It wont be handed to you like so many KS advertisers seem to think via me reading those ads + the opinions of people here who are working on becomming the Next NERD or Raplh Davis, or Bob Clark.
You have to p-l-a-n as far as what you can breed/sell/buy/trade to 'catch up'

Edit: fyi, i know nothing about breeding/selling/etc, i simply form opinions from those of the experienced people here and at other websites i've read. its all a conclusion from rational, educated and experienced thought from actual breeders.

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Originally Posted by Spaniard

Is anyone here someone who recently got into breeding on the business level? Have you found it hard to break into the market?

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My business is relatively new in the grand scheme of things ... I've been breeding ball pythons for 11 years, but it's only been the last 3 or 4 that I've been selling my offspring on the retail market as 8 Ball Pythons ... prior to that, I strictly wholesaled my animals out to breeders and jobbers.

I don't feel that it was hard at all to "break into the market" ... I'm certainly not a "big breeder" on the level of a NERD, RDR, PKR, etc, but I'm definitely a lot larger than I was 4 years ago. The reality is that it doesn't happen over night. I takes time and a plan and lots and lots of hard work. Every year as your production grows and the number of customers you sell to grows, so does your business. For me, it started with one retail customer ... now I'm shipping snakes every single week. Those new customers didn't fall into my lap though, I had to work to get them ... a good business plan is your best tool for getting started.

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Originally Posted by Spaniard

I can't help but feel that the handfull of big breeders out there will forever be ahead of newcomers.

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If a couple of college kids from Stanford thought that way about the internet market and companies like Yahoo, MSN, etc ... there would be no Google. Google is a perfect example of how a company can come out of no where with a great product, an excellent business plan, and a drive to be as good as or better than everyone else and in a very short amount of time be right there competing with the "big boys".

The ball python market is strong, and will continue to be strong. You can go as far as you want with it ... it all just depends on how much time and money you choose to put in and how patient you can be (no business is an instant success overnight) ... beyond that the most important thing to realize is that you're starting a business ... a real business ... so act like it ... read some books on starting business, do research on the internet on starting and running a business, talk to people that have experience starting and running businesses, and make a plan! ... A business without a plan is almost destined to fail ... The US Small Business Administration estimates that 95% of businesses started and run without a solid business plan fail within the first 3 years ... Write a good plan, update it frequently, and work your rear end off at being the best breeder you can possibly be and you'll be successful no matter what happens to the ball python market.

-adam

Maybe I just don't think big or whatever but for me anyways I don't want to play "catch up" with anybody. I love learning from what I read online from Kara, Adam, Ralph, etc. but I truly don't want what they have or to compete at their level. Heck I'd love to work for one of them and just get to see those snakes LOL. Sure I'd love one of those pretty morphs, I'd be nuts not to but for me it's just about a few nice snakes, some eggs down the road, healthy babies and here and there some friends or new friends getting a snake from Mike and I that they totally fell in love with.

I want a healthy market not so much because I see myself being any sort of big player but because to me a stable market shows buyers committed to purchasing top quality snakes from breeders that know the worth of those snakes, be it the most expensive morph or the sweetest little normal.

So I'll likely end up just a happy hobbyist/small business type person selling or trading a few snakes, enjoying the friendship of you all and puttering about in our little snake room. If we make enough money for a nice vacation with the kids, that would be great but knowing Mike and I anything we make is likely to be poured back into our collection LOL. Course there's always a vacation to a certain big herp show in Daytona in a few years....best of both worlds LOL.

Thanks Adam,

I must say I do enjoy hearing what you have to say.

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I strictly wholesaled my animals out to breeders and jobbers.

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What exactly do you mean by wholesaling? Selling your surplus offspring for cheaper than the going rate?

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The reality is that it doesn't happen over night. I takes time and a plan and lots and lots of hard work.

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Thats a reality we find in all our aspects of life, and you're absolutely right. Which is why I'm trying to get so much information now while I'm still young so that maybe 10 years down the road I can be doing what I love at 32 instead of running up the ladder in the corporate world.

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important thing to realize is that you're starting a business ... a real business ... so act like it ... read some books on starting business, do research on the internet on starting and running a business, talk to people that have experience starting and running businesses, and make a plan!

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Absolutely! Thats why I'm getting a BA in Business. I have a good stable job now where I have the luxury of working under the VP who happens to be an amazing boss who is never shy on taking the time to explain the big picture from start to end. Whether you're selling airplane parts and keeping the books as in my situation or selling and keeping snakes business is business and the principles of good business can be applied anywhere. I'm hoping to take what I learn in this corporate world I live in now and apply it constructively when I start breeding.

I think I'll take what I've heard and just focus on getting the breeding process down solid. By breeding process I mean mastering husbandry and care for the animal first and then work on bringing them into the world. I hope its the care and love that I plan on putting into my snakes that will separate me from the competition. After establishing a stable collection with a few good projects I will attack the business end.

Thanks again to everyone that took the time to respond and give their insight.

Special thanks to Adam; its not the first time you've taken time to share your thoughts with me. If i ever break through you'll be the first to recieve a thank you cookie box.

Franky I see your point completely. I don't have my heart set on becoming huge, just a goal I like to set. If ever the process of opening and maintaining the business starts to take away from the joy and love snakes give me now then I would completely give it up and be competely happy living out a situation like that you have just described. Even now I'm only in the learning stages trying to plan way ahead and research before I decide this is what I wanna do and go full steam for it. You live life once so if you're gonna do something make sure you do it right and better than anybody else, I try to live by that motto...although sometimes I'm called cocky for it, me i call it confidence :cool: