Future of the BP market?

OK, I know that everyone gets tired of these kinds of threads but I have a specific question(s).

There are a lot of people that believe prices do not have to go down every year, and on the other hand there are others that feel price drops are inevitable. However, this is not what I care about (well I do, but I don't want to beat a dead horse with this thread). What I'm trying to figure out is how long will it be before all the "get rich quick" people finally get out of this industry, and what will this mean for the rest of us that are in this for the long run when they do finally leave?

IMO, these "get rich quick" people are largely responsible for the instability that exists in the ball python industry because they are so willing to drop their prices in order to make their money back. Eventually these people will drop out of the business because they are not making the kind of money they had hoped to...

So my questions are, when will the majority of these "get rich quick" people get out of the ball python industry, and how will this affect the market in the short and long run?

I realize I'm not asking easy questions with obvious answers but I know there are a lot of you out there who have been doing this for a long time and I'd be very interested to hear what your opinions are... that being said, all opinion are welcomed!

Well...this is just my personal opinion based solely on life experience and observation, rather than actual experience in the BP market.


I think the "get rich quick" dudes will always be there. The ones that are here this year may not be around 2-3 years from now for any number of reasons...but for every current one who gives up and goes on to do something else, someone new will see all the dollar signs and try to worm their way in to make those "instant big bucks" that it seems everyone who owns a breeding pair of BPs must be making.

The world doesn't lack for people too lazy to work hard to earn their money and I don't see how all of them will suddenly come to the realization that succeeding in the BP market means years and years of hard work and good business sense.

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Originally Posted by JLC

Well...this is just my personal opinion based solely on life experience and observation, rather than actual experience in the BP market.


I think the "get rich quick" dudes will always be there. The ones that are here this year may not be around 2-3 years from now for any number of reasons...but for every current one who gives up and goes on to do something else, someone new will see all the dollar signs and try to worm their way in to make those "instant big bucks" that it seems everyone who owns a breeding pair of BPs must be making.

The world doesn't lack for people too lazy to work hard to earn their money and I don't see how all of them will suddenly come to the realization that succeeding in the BP market means years and years of hard work and good business sense.

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I definitely agree with you that there will always be the "get rich quick" people in this industry because there was, is, and always will be so much money involved in it. However, I also think that this market has already peaked and the days of the 20K+ morphs are over, or at least on a long hiatus (no, I'm not saying the market is crashing or "bursting", I'm just saying it was over-inflated and, as the laws of economics decree, it needs to come down and settle at a more realistic level where supply more accurately meets demand).

So, with the dollar signs not being as large anymore, I'd think the temptation to enter this market to "make millions" won't be as great as it used to be and therefore the number of "get rich quick" people will decrease. Like you said, we'll never be rid of them completely but I do think the next 3-5 years will be marked by a decrease in these types of breeders.

If I am right in that the overall number of "get rich quick" people will decrease in the next few years, then I'm back to my original question(s)...

I suggest reading Ralph Davis's journal this month (April 14th). He's written a very interesting rant about this topic...rant is what he's written, but only because Ralph is a man of strong emotions and opinions. But from my take, he's right on...=)

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Originally Posted by cassandra

I suggest reading Ralph Davis's journal this month (April 14th). He's written a very interesting rant about this topic...rant is what he's written, but only because Ralph is a man of strong emotions and opinions. But from my take, he's right on...=)

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Dead on for sure. Ralph tells it like it is..Gotta respect that. Good read as he always is.

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Originally Posted by fenez

However, I also think that this market has already peaked and the days of the 20K+ morphs are over, or at least on a long hiatus (no, I'm not saying the market is crashing or "bursting", I'm just saying it was over-inflated and, as the laws of economics decree, it needs to come down and settle at a more realistic level where supply more accurately meets demand).

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Peaked?! I haven't been around the Ball biz for very long, but from what I understand people have been saying Balls have peaked for the last 10 years or so. I think it's just getting started. Sure, the days of $20K morphs might be coming to an end, but there are a LOT more people buying morphs out there than ever before, and the lower the prices drop the more people will jump in. Not just to make a buck, but because they can finally afford that cool morph they've only seen pictures of.

Days of the 20k+ morph (singular) maybe.

Days of the 20k+ morph combos? Never! lol


I mean, right now there are unlimited morph combinations worth 20k+...

most aren't even made yet.

i read his journal and he is right about the people that want to pay their bills with this.

so, i am going to get a pastel in the near future. should i get it from this "breeder" who has them for $350 or from a good breeder like Adam from 8ballpythons? if i buy it from the guy that has it cheap, will i be contributing(sp) to the "damaging" of the ball biz?

Is it worth the risk? Is this a well known breeder? Will you get a healthy snake? Is it a high quality snake? Do you want to base your breeding project off of it? I'm surprised someone other than a wholesaler is selling one for $350 unless it is low-quality, or sick, or ??/ fill in the blank.

Check it http://www.crestedgecko.com/ball_python_available.htm

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Originally Posted by herplover92

so, i am going to get a pastel in the near future. should i get it from this "breeder" who has them for $350 or from a good breeder like Adam from 8ballpythons? if i buy it from the guy that has it cheap, will i be contributing(sp) to the "damaging" of the ball biz?

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You've got to remember that when you are buying a snake from a breeder big or small you are also buying their reputation. Personally I would buy from someone who's been in the business a while like Adam...His pastels vs. the $350 may be a bit more, but with his quality of pastel, but with the quality of service you get with it Adam's snake is definitely worth the extra bucks. If this $350 pastel guy is a no-name he may have a good rep on the other hand he may not. You may not get what you are promised, and end up getting burned.

If you have the urge to save money at least ask for references or do a bit of background research on this small breeder.

In the end it is your final decision. Personally I'd go with the animal that has a great guy's reputation and heart put in to it.

Edit: Just noticed that you put the breeder site right before I posted, Garrick is a pretty well established breeder, and I've talked to him in person twice now. Very stand up guy! I wouldn't hesitate to do business with him, and I was actually going to purchase a pastel from him at a show but he didn't have any available. His prices seem quite a bit lower than last season, so I'm not sure if he's projecting...but fair market prices for quality pastels from most breeders are still going to be in the $600+ range. He doesnt' have any available right now, so we'll see what he produces.

Jason

yeah, i think that 350 is just his estimation since he had his pastels going for 650 last year.

i love what Ralph Davis's said and i agree. last year in 2005 i had two male pastles for sell and i had a few people that only wanted to give me 200 or 300 for the but i wanted 700 and i got 700 it took a little longer but i would have gladly held on to the one male as he was a stud lots of blushing.and one of the guys that offer me 300 ended up giveing me the 700 for him. so never be afaid to hold on and wait to make a sell.

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Originally Posted by herplover92

Check it http://www.crestedgecko.com/ball_python_available.htm

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All Prices in Yellow are Projected Prices for 2006 Offspring



Ok, so they arent being sold yet, pre-sold for $350 and that is a "projected" price for a hatchling, in ?? months time. A lot of people list pre-sell prices, but I don't count it until I actually see the live animal going for that amount.


Edit: I see now that this was pointed out already.

There is nothing wrong with getting the best price for yourself, even full time breeders will admit that, the only issue is when you sacrifice quality/health/etc for the price through an unknown breeder.

I think pastels are an example of where people get in for low investment, get several females, and pump a bunch out, that has dropped the price significantly


Pet shops often have adult female BP's for $100 or so, and if you pick up a male pastel for $400 you can try to breed him in the fall. If your one pastel breeds the 5 females you picked up, and you get average luck, then you might end up with 12 pastels.

I think the main instability comes with the low priced morphs. More of the get rich quick people can afford them, and even the non-get rich quick people. If you pick up a grown female, you are looking at a short term investment in time to get a few clutches of pastels out.

The more stable priced morphs are recessives (which take more effort to get a visible morph out of ) and the super/multi-morph combos which represent a signficiant time investment.

I think certain areas are unstable, or bottoming out, but others are blooming.

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Originally Posted by SnakeySnakeSnake

I think pastels are an example of where people get in for low investment, get several females, and pump a bunch out, that has dropped the price significantly

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And unfortunately the quality of most of these pastels has dropped as well...there are so many poor looking pastels listed on KS its ridiculous. The "get rich quick" breeders aren't in the market to produce quality animals just to make a real quick buck.

If these guys were looking long-term these guys would be working towards supers, and pastel combos. Luckily most of the breeders with that mentality aren't bound to stick around too much longer. We don't need guys like that around that are underapreciating the animals that made the market what it is, it makes the rest of us small breeders that are passionate about BPs look bad.

I will have a pastel in my collection at some point, and I'm willing to shell out for it...however most of the offspring the first year I produce will be held back for super projects, combos, and trading to strengthen bloodlines.

With or without these "get rich quick" breeders the market will subsist, prices will stay stable, I haven't been in the market long enough to say for sure, but I'm sure the market will be as stong as it is now in years to come.

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Future of the BP market?

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All I know is............ball pythons are cool no matter what ;)

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Originally Posted by daniel1983

All I know is............ball pythons are cool no matter what ;)

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Truer words were never spoken! :sweeet:

in addition to the above, really take time and shop for a good breeder. a good breeder will already have nice quality animals, they have put the time/money into there breeding stock. not bought the cheapest they could find. the knowledge and after sales help that comes with good breeders is "priceless"



vaughn

I don't see snake breeding as any different from say horse breeding, dog breeding, anything really. In my opinion, you need to get the very best foundation stock you can afford from the most reputable breeder you can find. If that means biting the bullet and paying a bit more to get the best from the best or waiting a year to save up for what you want...well. When it comes to the snakes that will anchor your future breeding plans, is there anything else to say really?