People claim recessives hold value more... but...

I find this statement confusing.... I know we can't really go into longterm price comparisons as this is still a young market, but I seem to think about this in a different way than most .... Of course this may only make sense to me, but here goes.

I think co-doms will hold their value better than recessives in the long-run. For an example I will compare pastels to albinos.

Albino male (aa): $2k
Albino Het male (aN): $100

Now a fair comparison to the pastel morph on genetics would be.

Super Pastel male (pp): $8k
Pastel male: $400

The albino takes as much work to hatch out as a super pastel when you consider genetics, and a regular pastel takes as much work as a het albino. If you compare those prices, the pastel morph is still about 4 times as expensive as the albino. One thing co-doms have going for them is that their "hets" are visible. A better way to talk about it for comparing to albinos would be to say that a pastel is really a het super pastel. Because it is a visible het, there are less issues with being "uncertain" or having to "prove out" the morph.

I don't see a super pastel becoming cheaper than an Albino anytime soon, so it appears that even this co-dom morph is still holding its value well...

The only way that recessives may hold their value better longterm, is if people don't get involved in them as much because of the "blind" aspect when dealing with hets. This ends up requiring a lot more work to prove out possible hets, and requires keeping more snakes around... a homozgyous albino , it becomes easy to ascertain the genetics involved in the project as you switch to producing only 100% hets.

I see recessives getting an edge in fewer people taking them on, but losing the edge because of how easy co-doms are to work with and identify. There is always the "wow" factor of a recessive, but in the end, there is more pay-off when working with co-doms as you can produce more visibles, and still have a "wow" factor super form.

Did any of that make sense?

Perhaps I've misunderstood the term "holding value" but I thought it meant market value not fluctuating, rather than in your example Brian of comparing purchases prices morph vs morph (whether the genetics are recessive or co-dom). In other words as I understand it, if I buy an albino today for 2K and it "holds it's value" it should therefore be worth at least 2K down the road (hopefully more as it matures and becomes a proven breeder). Perhaps though I've oversimplified it in my own mind being such a newcomer to the ball python morph market.

I guess in that sense "holding" means losing value slower :)

everything will drop in price as more are produced each year. co-doms are easier to produce and alot more people produce them. the albino has been since early 90's and is still 2k, pieds late 90's still 5k. ie co-doms will drop faster because alot more people have or can get normal girls to produce them. how many of us have breeder female het stripes or lavender albino ready to go?



vaughn

My point is that its not fair to compare a Pastel to an Albino, you would have to compare a Pastel to a het for albino, or an Albino to a Super Pastel.

Even if you conmpare the Super Pastel to the Albino, and the Pastel to the het Albino. The market will most likely reduce the price of the pastels, and super pastels as more and more people produce them. So they price will drop dramically in the next few years(supposedly) as the market becomes flooded. The albino being more difficult to produce, being a recessive, will still hold the price a bit better. What were pastels going for 2 years ago? And now? Supers? Comparing the price DROP in a set period of time is a better way to compare the "holding value" not actual dollars.
As more people can afford and realize that morphs exist, I believe that the albino and the pied will ALWAYS be a extremely popular choise simply because they are visially 'different' to anyone's eye. Of course WE would look at a cinnamon pastel and go ga-ga, where the average joe will look at one and go.. 'ehh, so it is darker'.
So the price fluctuation will also depend on demand. Pastels are not all that different to the average joe, not compared to an albino, or good lord! A snake with WHITE splotches.
MYself, I see recessives holding value better, especially as the combos become popular. I will be trying to use pastel females to produce things like bumblebees, rather than super pastels. (After I use a pair to produce me MORE pastel females that is). Why? #1 I think bumblebees are a more visually stimulating morph and therefor a better sell. #2 I want a bumblebee for ME, I love em, and I can't afford one myself right now. I do think they will come down in price soon, but right now I have the makings, so I can make my own rather than wait for the price to come down. So I will. And if I happen to make a couple extras to sell while the price is still high, all the better. I can buy myself a couple more visual pied females maybe.
End result,(Sorry for rambling on, haven't had my morning tea yet) I truely believe that recessives are the stronger. Of course if you can get in on the first generation of something new, be it dom or rec, you will be better off money-wise for selling.
Shutting up now,
Blabbermouth Wolfy

I thought I'd give my opinion on this matter , I like pastel's but love albino's and pied's. I guess it's the complete different look , if I were to invite a friend over and they would see a pastel it wouldn't be a big deal to someone who know's nothing of Bp's. But if they see a albino or pied they'd say wow how did that snake get all those white marking's. Don't get me wrong , I see the difference but the average Joe won't. Do love Super pastel's and Lemon's. P.s Would not invite just anyone too see my snake's

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Originally Posted by SnakeySnakeSnake

I guess in that sense "holding" means losing value slower :)

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You have to look at how long the albinos have been selling in the 2k range and how long the supers have been around also. It will be interesting to see what the supers sell for this year. I have a feeling it wont stay at 8k.

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Originally Posted by SnakeySnakeSnake

My point is that its not fair to compare a Pastel to an Albino, you would have to compare a Pastel to a het for albino, or an Albino to a Super Pastel.

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Exactly and 10 years ago albinos were $12,500.00 ... I sold several this year for $2,500.00 ... That's an 80% decline in 10 years ... 5 years ago super pastels were $25,000.00 ... this year they are retailing for $8,000.00 ... that's a 68% decline in 5 years.

In June of last year, pinstripes were advertised for $25,000.00 ... now they are being advertised for $9,000.00 .... In June of last year, Lavender albinos were being advertised for $25,000.00 ... now you can't find any, but if you could, they'd still be $25,000.00

I can't see how you can compare the value of two morphs that have not been around the same amount of time ... albinos have at least a 5 year head start on just about every other morph.

Many of the people that say recessives hold their value better do so because they've been in this business breeding and selling these animals for a very long time.

-adam

I think a better comparison would be the Hypo to the Pastel. The looks are similar, at least moreso than between an albino and a pastel, and I believe they've been around about as long. The pastels, however, have held there value much better when comparing a super pastel to a hypo.

Anyway, I don't think you can just use a blanket statement that "recessive is a better investment". I think it comes down to the individual morph, what is the demand, what can they be combined with that will be in high demand, etc. All of those factors come into play (including codom vs. recessive vs. dom) when talking about holding value.

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Originally Posted by xdeus

Anyway, I don't think you can just use a blanket statement that "recessive is a better investment".

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I agree ... Investment wise, "better" is very situational based on existing animals in your collection, finances, goals, etc.

As far as hypos vs. super pastels, that's a hard piece of cake to swallow as well ... the original hypos were only priced at around a couple of thousand dollars .... as a matter of fact, in 1998 I bought a hypo male as an adult for $800.00 ... now, I sell hypo male hatchlings for $1,500.00

Super pastels started out of the gate at 25K, so they naturally had a long way to fall.

Hypos have actually gone up as much as 100% in value over the same time that pastels have fallen 68% when you compare hypo to super pastel.

-adam

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Originally Posted by Adam_Wysocki

Hypos have actually gone up as much as 100% in value over the same time that pastels have fallen 68% when you compare hypo to super pastel.

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Okay, but as far as profit do you think people have made more on pastels or hypos even with the increase/decrease in values? I would much rather buy a $25K snake and sell 100 of them at $1,000 than if I bought a $500 snake and could only sell 20 of them at $1,000.

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Originally Posted by xdeus

Okay, but as far as profit do you think people have made more on pastels or hypos even with the increase/decrease in values? I would much rather buy a $25K snake and sell 100 of them at $1,000 than if I bought a $500 snake and could only sell 20 of them at $1,000.

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I think that if the game was checkers, pastels would certainly yield a higher profit ... For me, the game is chess ... If I were to put all of the hypo and het hypo females that I've held back on the market today, they'd be sold in a heartbeat and I'd have 2x's the money that I've ever made on pastels in my pocket. ;)

-adam

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Originally Posted by Adam_Wysocki

I think that if the game was checkers, pastels would certainly yield a higher profit ... For me, the game is chess ... If I were to put all of the hypo and het hypo females that I've held back on the market today, they'd be sold in a heartbeat and I'd have 2x's the money that I've ever made on pastels in my pocket. ;)

-adam

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Ah... you bring up another good point: the other players in the game. It seems to happen more with the codoms, but it happens with the recessives too like the Piebald. You always have to consider the breeder that will grab a lionshare of the market with a certain morph. It happened last year with the pastel, and Peter Kahl did it with the Pied. Who knows, maybe this year you'll do it with the hypo. :) A lot of small breeders seem to get upset because of it, but I think it's just part of the game. I think you gave the best advice for any wannabe breeder: breed what you love.

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Originally Posted by xdeus

Who knows, maybe this year you'll do it with the hypo.

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LOL ... No way ... I'm a whore for females ... not gonna happen.

BTW, FWIW, I think what Pete did with pieds last year was extremely smart! ... We'll know soon enough if people "got the message". ;)

-adam

What are you referring to with teh pieds last year? Just wondering.
Wolfy

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Originally Posted by Adam_Wysocki

LOL ... No way ... I'm a whore for females ... not gonna happen.

BTW, FWIW, I think what Pete did with pieds last year was extremely smart! ... We'll know soon enough if people "got the message". ;)

-adam

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Do tell! And we knew you were a whore for the females :D

As it has been brought up already it's all about supply and demand. As the supply increase the price will drop and the demand will increase based on the lower price. That being said, the value of the base morphs is only enhanced by the combinations they produce. IMHO, it's more about combinations for me, I wanna see what I can get by mixing A+B+C2. :D

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Originally Posted by Gecko Den

As it has been brought up already it's all about supply and demand. As the supply increase the price will drop and the demand will increase based on the lower price. That being said, the value of the base morphs is only enhanced by the combinations they produce. IMHO, it's more about combinations for me, I wanna see what I can get by mixing A+B+C2. :D

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I'm with ^^ Him..

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Originally Posted by Adam_Wysocki

BTW, FWIW, I think what Pete did with pieds last year was extremely smart! ... We'll know soon enough if people "got the message". ;)

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Yes, what did he do (hold, sell, high, low, export, increase/decrease production)?

I certainly don't know for sure, but he had a TON of hom. pieds available for sale, so my guess is increased pied production so he was the man to get pieds from. But I very well may be wrong...=)

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Originally Posted by RandyRemington

Yes, what did he do (hold, sell, high, low, export, increase/decrease production)?

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...you forgot breeding the pieds to any other trait that he has....producing lots of DHs and codom/dom het pieds...

I know thats what I would be doing....

I would guess the smart thing to do would be to buy up all the cheap pieds, and control the market price :)