Possible Hets

I've been pondering the next steps as far as our albino project using Malachi our 100% het for Albino male. Now of course I'd love to run right out and buy a female 100% het to match to Mal but budgets being budgets....

What do you all think of buying a group of possible het albino females? I've heard it's not a bad thing to prove out some females and I figure if they are just normals, they are still females so what's the real loss right? Now of course, you have to locate a reliable breeder and I've been told it's smartest to buy all the females in the same clutch to try and up the odds that even one will prove out.

Guess my question is where does one locate a decent breeder that would have possible albino het females? I've looked around and found squat really online or perhaps I'm not looking in the right place? Is it a waste of time to try to prove out possible hets? Should I just be patient and save up for the 100% het for albino female?

Advice, ideas, ponderings and musings welcome folks.....

I might buy my 100%hetalbino female next month , but I was also lookin to buy some possible het's and found nothing.Hopefully this thread will shed some light , I'd rather go the cheaper route.

poss hets girls are great way to make morphs and save some! i've got several poss het girls, if one of them proves that covers the cost for the whole group. worst case i've got some breeder girls for co-dom projects.



vaughn

Exactly Vaughn! My problem is actually locating any possible het females from anyone I'd trust to actually give me the straight scoop on them. We can wait till this fall, breed Mal to our own normal females and hopefully produce some of our own possible het for albino females to raise up but I'm thinking if I can find some a bit older it will speed things up just a bit that way. I also like the idea of proving them out...kind of a nice gamble in some ways.

It's Awesome when possie's prove out!!

I'd guess that some good breeders (Adam? Graziani? SK? NERD? RDR? etc.) may have some possible albino hets coming this season. You might think about contacting them now ahead of time and ask if they potentially have poss albino hets coming, etc. =)

going to shows,online forums are great ways to meet breeders. you have to build a relationship and really trust someone when it comes to possible hets. do some networking and make some phone calls to breeders. alot of people will have more than what they list on their site or ads.:gallery: :reading: :teamwork: :whisper:



vaughn

I would just start checking with the breeders you know with a good name. Top Shelf Exotics had something where you bought 5 or more poss hets and If you didn't get any morphs after 2 breeding seasons they would buy them back for 125%.

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Originally Posted by greenmonkey51

I would just start checking with the breeders you know with a good name. Top Shelf Exotics had something where you bought 5 or more poss hets and If you didn't get any morphs after 2 breeding seasons they would buy them back for 125%.

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The only problem there is you dont know who produced the animals. They wholesale balls. I dont think they even breed balls.

building the relationships and trust is the key ingredient. with those intact you don't need a guarantee or papers. paperwork is only as good as the person who wrote them.



vaughn

When I was trying to decide what snake to buy with the money I had, both Adam and Kara said that buying a group of poss het girls is a great way to go. Of course, I was only buying ONE snake, so 100% het made more sense for me. But it is definitely a logical and economical way to go.

As you said though, finding a trustworthy breeder is the trick. As the laying season progresses, though, I think you'll begin to see more options coming available from reputable names.

Geesh Vaughn you post I nod LOL but that's exactly it for me. Paperwork is just that....anybody can print it. I know nothing is ever certain, especially in possible hets, but I want to try and spend the funds responsibly so that means not being the newb on the block for every scam artist out there. Hopefully as Mike and I explore this option we'll talk to some folks and see what is out there when it comes to the possible het idea.

JO i would also buy possiable het girl but i would see if i could buy all the females for a single clutch as your odds would be better. but if your in no hurry and can save up for a 100% girl thats a great route to go as you know you will get a albino sooner or later.

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Originally Posted by gncz73

JO i would also buy possiable het girl but i would see if i could buy all the females for a single clutch as your odds would be better.

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Buying poss. hets is always safer in groups, as the more you have, the higher your chances of having the gene in at least one animal, but they don't necessarily have to be from the same clutch. Buy five girls from one clutch, or one girl from each of five clutches, your odds are the same. Just something to keep in mind as you search for poss. hets this season. https://ball-pythons.net/forums/imag...lies/smile.gif

From a purely statistical point of view.

100% Het bred to a normal

50% of the babies will bet het

which means every female has a 1/2 chance of being het....

This is not by clutch... any female hatching any babies out there will be 1/2. Purchasing more from the same clutch to up the odds has no different odds than if you purchased each one from different clutches.

If you see 2 of 4 eggs hatch, and you can see that they have the albino gene (with some magical goggles), that doesnt mean that the other 2 have less of a chance of being het with the albino gene as well. They still both have a 1/2 chance.

Same goes if the first 2 eggs hatch and you can see that they dont have the albino gene. Each egg has odds on its own, not related to the clutch.



Sorry for all that, just wanted to make a point about buying all from one location.


Edit: Whoops, I see someone posted this already RIGHT above me, im silly :)

yes buying groups is safer but we'll say i'm buying 4 girls and i'll explain in two way as to my meaning and we'll see which one every on thinks has better odds of proveing.


first group of four come from a 100% male to a normal female all babies are female. and i buy all four and breed them in three years to my male in theory two of the girls should prove out which means i would have 2 baby albinos. now in this group i have a 50% chane of getting a het.

second group come from one breeder and comes from a 100% male breed to four females that each lay four eggs and all four eggs hatch and there is a baby female in each group so i take the four females and breed them to may male. and in theory i have the same odds. but as i only took the lone female for four groups my odds have been cut because all the hets could have been males. slim yes but the odd are better in the first group.


i hope i worded this good

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Originally Posted by Evan Jamison

Buying poss. hets is always safer in groups, as the more you have, the higher your chances of having the gene in at least one animal, but they don't necessarily have to be from the same clutch. Buy five girls from one clutch, or one girl from each of five clutches, your odds are the same. Just something to keep in mind as you search for poss. hets this season. https://ball-pythons.net/forums/imag...lies/smile.gif

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Originally Posted by gncz73

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i hope i worded this good

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I had to read it through a couple times to figure out what you were saying, but I think you worded it well enough to get your point across. I think though, that you are approaching statistics with an emotional spin and therefore making one option seem more attractive just because it "makes more sense" to you.

If I have one person flipping ten coins...the chances of any given coin landing on "heads" is still 50/50.

If I have ten different people each flipping one coin..the chances of any given coin landing on "heads" is still 50/50.

Either way...the chances of a single coin flipping heads is 50%. The chances of all ten coins flipping tails and NOT getting a het is .0098%. Odds are you WILL score a het with a decent sized group, whether they are siblings or not.

(This formula, of course, is assuming you're buying 50%ph girls...your odds are even better with 66%ph.)

Of course the fun of it all is that none of them could be hets LOL. You could have spun the old genetics wheel and come up with normals all the way around. Just like breeding pastel to pastel and getting a lovely clutch of all normals, nothing is ever guaranteed but that's half the fun.

Well I figure whether a possible het proves out or not, it's still a female we are raising and breeding and there's never a loss for us in a big healthy breeding size female that produces eggs no matter what's in those eggs. Sure we'd love the albino's we want but I don't know of a lot of other situations in life where the downside is still an upside :)

that's my outlook jo! worst case i end up with normal breeder girls.


each egg has a 50% chance, it is a het or not, judy nailed it.


vaughn

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Originally Posted by gncz73

because all the hets could have been males.

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Statistically, it is the same odds that there or no hets in the first group of all females from one clutch as there are no hets in the second group of four females from different clutches.

Just because there are four females from one clutch, it isn't automatic that one or more of them is a het. They could still all be just normals.

50% chance for each egg ... doesn't matter if it's the same clutch or different clutches ... it's per animal.

Psychologically, it certainly "feels" better to get all the females from a single clutch because no one wants to believe that the gene would not make it to at least one of them, but it happens .... 2 years ago I bred a pastel to a normal female that laid 12 eggs, and every single baby was normal ... If that breeding had been het albino x normal, not a single one of the females in the clutch would have proved out as a het.

-adam

and that is why i said in therory(sp) in my earlier post because nothing is a gaurantee with the genetics wheel

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Originally Posted by Adam_Wysocki

Statistically, it is the same odds that there or no hets in the first group of all females from one clutch as there are no hets in the second group of four females from different clutches.

Just because there are four females from one clutch, it isn't automatic that one or more of them is a het. They could still all be just normals.

50% chance for each egg ... doesn't matter if it's the same clutch or different clutches ... it's per animal.

Psychologically, it certainly "feels" better to get all the females from a single clutch because no one wants to believe that the gene would not make it to at least one of them, but it happens .... 2 years ago I bred a pastel to a normal female that laid 12 eggs, and every single baby was normal ... If that breeding had been het albino x normal, not a single one of the females in the clutch would have proved out as a het.

-adam

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i do agree with you jo if nothing else i have more females to breed

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Originally Posted by frankykeno

Of course the fun of it all is that none of them could be hets LOL. You could have spun the old genetics wheel and come up with normals all the way around. Just like breeding pastel to pastel and getting a lovely clutch of all normals, nothing is ever guaranteed but that's half the fun.

Well I figure whether a possible het proves out or not, it's still a female we are raising and breeding and there's never a loss for us in a big healthy breeding size female that produces eggs no matter what's in those eggs. Sure we'd love the albino's we want but I don't know of a lot of other situations in life where the downside is still an upside :)

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Originally Posted by gncz73

and that is why i said in therory(sp) in my earlier post because nothing is a gaurantee with the genetics wheel

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Understood. I was just pointing out that based on genetics and statistical probability, your "in theory" could apply to either the first or second group equally.

It just "feels better" to grab up all the girls from a single clutch, but in reality it makes no difference.

Hope that makes sense.

-adam

Math question... what is the probability that you would get a het from three 50% hets? or three at 66%

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Originally Posted by Adam_Wysocki

Psychologically, it certainly "feels" better to get all the females from a single clutch because no one wants to believe that the gene would not make it to at least one of them, but it happens .... 2 years ago I bred a pastel to a normal female that laid 12 eggs, and every single baby was normal ... If that breeding had been het albino x normal, not a single one of the females in the clutch would have proved out as a het.

-adam

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WOW! 12 normals that sucks... But you made up for that last year, With the Lessers!!!

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Originally Posted by xdeus

Math question... what is the probability that you would get a het from three 50% hets? or three at 66%

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Off the top of my head, I think it's something like an 88% chance that there is a het in 3 50% hets, and a 96% chance that there is a het in 3 66% hets.

If I'm wrong, I'm sure someone will hook me up with the correct answer. :banana:

-adam

To me, I think it'd make more sense to get one 100% het female because you'll have a darn good chance of producing a hom animal right away when you breed with your het male. And then you'll have your own possible hets to play with. But then, I'm pretty impatient, hehe!

I"m with you cass. I am super impatient!

96.3% chance that out of 3 66% you get 1

87.5% chance that out of 3 50% hets you get 1



I think? Same numbers as adam heh

Well the impatience factor isn't a factor lol. I am impatient on some things, for some reason the snakes just aren't one of them. I also really like the idea of possible hets not only budget wise but just for the pure fun and excitement of it. It's not like we aren't going to be acquiring more females anyways so why not roll the dice a bit genetically speaking (that's the only part of this hobby I want to ever gamble on lol).

I do think we'll look for the 66% though. Might be nice to nudge the odds a bit but really it either is or it ain't...LOL

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Originally Posted by cassandra

To me, I think it'd make more sense to get one 100% het female because you'll have a darn good chance of producing a hom animal right away when you breed with your het male. And then you'll have your own possible hets to play with. But then, I'm pretty impatient, hehe!

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I'm not sure where the impatience factors in with a possible het compared to a true het. Either way, it will take you just as long to get a homo, you just have a better chance with a known het.

Ok. Makes sense. So lets call it better odds rather than an issue of patience.