Are BP morphs the next "dot.bombs"?

I am not sure I have an opinion on the matter, but would like to hear what you all think. Do you think the market will be there for all the bp's that will be produced in the next ten years or so, or will the market crash like with the "dot.bombs"?

Well, in order to answer this question, you'd have to take a look at all of the big breeders out there. Take a look at how many animals they produce a year... how many they sell, and for what prices they're selling them for... Take a look at RDR's available page... then take a look at his clutch records.... Then ask him how much he pays in estimated quarterly tax payments.

I think things are holding true for right now... :)

But seriously, I think the reason the market is holding so well is because of all of the "small guys" out there trying to get to be a "big guy". Look at my situatoin for example... I fell in love with BP's and started aquiring lots of them quickly... Lets say next year, I decide that I don't like BP's anymore (not gonna happen, but just playing devil's advocate here)... I would have invested well over $30,000 in snakes (that helped drive the market) and then sold them off to other people in my same position for the same $30,000.. or in most cases MORE (because of the weight they'd put on) thus, still driving the market.

There are so many people out there that get a hatchling female, and PLAN on spending three years to get her up to size to breed, and wind up either breeding too soon and killing her, or making her very sick, or not having the patience to wait that long.

I would bet that if EVERYONE that got into this to become the next RDR/NERD/TSK/8BP (like how I threw you in the mix, Adam? :) :)) actually got big, and produced lots of animals, that yes, the prices would fall greatly, because there would be hundreds if not thousands of times the current number of BP's produced... and as so many people have pointed out.. it's all Supply/Demand.

Just my .02 on the matter...

The way I look at it is that there going to be a number of people that look at what some of the bigger breeders have done and think....whooooweeee I can get rich overnight! They are fools, at least in my mind.

If it's all about the money they aren't going to last and what they produce is likely to be crap because they didn't care about the quality of their snakes, their health, the genetics, the BP market and in the end....their customer. What they cared about was the bottom line and even though you have to realistic about that bottom line....if that's all there is I won't be spending dollar one with that so called breeder.

What attracted us to 8Ball was Adam's passion for Ball Pythons. Sure he's got to be a smart business man or he'll fail - that's a given. His passion guarantees me that he will strive to produce only snakes he himself is proud of....not just crap to make a buck off some idiot who doesn't know better. Breeders like Adam, Ralph, Kara & Kevin, Joe and many more....produce gorgeous snakes and encourage a strong viable ball python market, encouraging us newcomers with their wisdom, support and advice.

I can't think of another group of people I'm prouder to be associated with even in my own nobody from nowhere kinda way! :)


~~Jo~~

I would think that the market would be similar to the puppy market. Having bred yorkies, I got extremely high prices for mine despite the fact that people have been breeding and selling yorkies for about 100 years. My pups went for the top prices barring show dogs. And I had a waiting list that was 2 years long at onepoint, so I drove my prices up by double and not one person dropped off the list(I was TRYING to shorten the list).
If you are passionate and caring about the animals you produce and you produce great quality animals and back them up.. there is a market for them.
If you want to be the equivalent of a puppy mill(snake mill?) and produce the largest number of animals and invest the least amount of time and money in them, lie about them to get higher prices, then no you won't last.(** I AM NOT SAYING YOU IN PARTICULAR!! Just using it as a in general**) Those that invest their time and efforts and build themselves a solid reputation as a honest person who genuinely cares about the ball python.. I think they will continue to do well.
Just my own .02 and of course I am also hoping to make my money back in about 5 years. I want to produce the greatest animals I possibly can, and that is the bottom line with me. Healthy good looking snakes. It helps that I ADORE all my snakes even the cranky females that bite me every chance they get. I just think they are spunky.
Wolfy

We really are still at the beginning with lots of rare morphs that are destined to drop in price as production ramps regardless of if anyone wants them to or not. And even IF the number of new imported morphs drops off there will still be tons and tons of rare combos to be made that can then go through price drops as they become more common. With animals that can reproduce geometrically price drops aren't necessarily a bad thing. Good producers will produce enough to outrun the drop and the end result will be more ball python morphs for everyone.

However, it will be interesting to see how the ball python market stabilizes for some of the more common individual morphs. It's always hard to know what the real selling price is but it doesn't seem to me that albinos or pastels have come down much the last few years. Are these morphs getting close to a stabilization price at which large numbers of new breeders will stop ramping up production? It doesn't seem likely that big breeders would be able to hold a set price on these more common morphs but rather that the price really reflects the supply and demand balance of the market. When prices are higher people work harder at producing more of that morph and invest more of their resources (females etc.) into it. As prices came down on albinos and pastels it seems likely that those who could would move on to more profitable projects (more rare morphs and combos).

Will we eventually (after a long long time) reach a time when most morphs and even combos are at a stabilization price and how high will that price be? It's a fair amount of work to produce ball pythons, if we get past the wild frontier days of rare morphs how many and who will be left to do the less glamorous low stakes work?

I think that the relative price of the base morphs (pied, pastel, hypo, albino, etc) will come down as the supply of them rises. Prices come down when supply is increased, the number of alternatives increase, and more perfect information about whats available is accessible(the internet really helps out there).

I think that the future in big $$ morphs are those 1 in 16 chance combo morphs, such as a caramel glow, orange ghost, etc. Keep in mind that BP morphs have only been around for 15 years or so. Indeed, what we see now is only the beginning.

in addition to the above, i think there will always be a market. as prices drop the customer base increases ten fold. who wouldn't buy a pied,albino, or a lucy for 500-1000? (not saying that is the real price) just guessing down the road. as prices go down i think the big breeders will focus on less common morphs and bigger projects. the big breeders are "breeder's breeders" supplying the serious hobbyist and private breeders. the private breeders supplying the average herper. i think there is a "market" at every level. and it is great that you can join in on any level! if you want to earn 50k-100k you'll probably have to invest around that. there are alot of expenses involved and at each level they increase. what a cool hobby though! you get to play with snakes, hatch cool morphs and maybe make a buck or two!

vaughn

Yes but in the end there has to be a market for people buying these as pets....and I don't know one person who has a 10k snake let alone anything more then that...maybe a pastel...but I don't know anyone who has a lesser plat..clown...peid ....

no one ...no body ...nada...

yes breeders trade etc...but who is dumping cash for these snakes for pet purposes...with no intention to buy and breed to earn $$$ themselves...

no one....

No one is buying those NOW for pets. The point is that someday they will, with the price being more like the mentioned $500-1000

It's just like baseball cards they ain't worth **** unless someone is willing to pay cash...
here is a test got try and trade your Lucy ball in for a 911...see what they say to you....

the value that people are putting these animals is insane....

people are saying these are a good investment....not even close....the value of the more affordable snakes keep declining...look at nromals....pastels...etc. the market is so small and will become flooded values will drop....

plus no body is buying them anyway...

if you are looking at this for a return you are kidding yourself....it's an expensive hobbby nothing more....

Actually which are you saying no one is buying?
The last Lucy that was offered was bought.
The prices on certain types will decline and possibly rise a little then decline more as more are being produced. As the price goes down, more people will want them. More demand for a product will keep the price somewhat higher.
Yes the prices will come down, and you might see a high white pied ball python for $500 in the future. But then something else will be new and hot, some new morph or combo and that will be the high priced ones. I am sure that 5 years ago albinos were not going for $2000.00
Again just my opinion. But I am not saying you will become rich and famous, it is not a sure path to gold and diamonds. But as a business venture you can be succesful.
OTherwise yes it can be a expensive hobby. But then other people have expensive hobbies too. Ours is just cooler! LOL :D
wolfy

bought for a pet? where it will make it's final stop....


or bought to be bred with the idea it is going to make money for someone as bad investment?

yes sure there are a few here and there being sold....but who is making it rich off selling snakes....like 5 places ? the average joe smoe is not going to do it...

put your money in an IRA not a Bp...lol...

I have money and would never in my life buy a 5k snake let alone a 20K one...but that's just me...

take a poll who has a snake with a value of over 5k for a pet....no intention to breed.....

Again. Not talking about today, but the next few years. Once the price goes down the people WILL buy them as pets. Because they are tre cool animals.
The dot.coms took several years to crash and until then people made money.
Depends on when you get in and what you are willing to invest.
It is a endless debate though.

agreed....


but i hate when people say it's a good investment....

Just my $.02, but if you invest enough money it can turn out to be a good investment, from what I have seen the bp market is pretty stable. In my opinion it will probably take a few decades before we see morphs offered at a reasonable price for the average owner who wants a beautiful pet, but waiting SuX0r De|uX0r :rage: :crying:

I think the problem with this discussion is the term "good investment." Anything can be a good investment, IF it pays off in the end. There are any number of things that can be "good investments" for one person, and a terrible investment for another.


For instance...JoeBob can pay $2500 for a beat-up, rusted out old classic Caddy, and then spend the next 3-5 years laboring over and adoring his car...searching out and finding all original stock parts...spending thousands of dollars on those parts...eventually restoring the car to its original splendor. And turn around and sell it for many, many times the amount he put into it. Is there a huge market for mint-condition old caddies? No. Personally, I don't know a single, solitary soul who has one...nor anyone who would spend that kind of outrageous money to buy one, even if they could. BUT...that doesn't mean there aren't plenty of people out there who WOULD pay that kind of money for the beauty that JoeBob invested in.

Now...if I bought that same $2500 old piece of junk...could I turn it into a $50,000 car? No. It would likely sit in the yard and continue to rust. I would KNOW that the investment potential is very good...I would have all the good intentions in the world of restoring that car. But my temperment, my interests, and my knowledge about cars would doom me from the start. Sure, I could LEARN more about them and how to restore....but even knowing that doesn't suddenly turn me into a back-yard mechanic who adores getting all greasy and grimey for the sake of a beautiful car. BAD investment for me!

Is the Ball Python market a sure-thing investment? Heck no. And I don't think there's a single soul who understands the market that would tell you it is. There is risk involved in virtually all investments.....and probably especially so with live animals. You not only risk the possibility that the market will "crash" and you can't make back what you bought into it with....but you risk any number of disasters that can kill off your investment stock and all the years you've put into growing them up.

The potential for the Ball Python market to stay strong looks very good to me. Is it a "good investment" for anyone who thinks snakes are "cool"? Heck no. I think old Caddies are awesome, too. But for the right people with the right passion mixed with the right business savvy and the right knowledge.....it's well worth the risk.

This is so simple to me being an economist. This is a very incestuous business. It is simply breeders (or wanna be breeders) who are keeping the prices high because they are the ones shelling out 10k for a snake. The breeders are supporting the other breeders with cash and trade. Just look at who is buying. This market will only crash when it is flooded.


I just bought a pastel. In looking for this I was looking everywhere to get the brightest snake for the cheapest price. Just showing interest in some snakes would bring down the price a few hundred dollars. Which is a large % of the total price. The big bucks will be made by the first guy able supply cool morphs at a realistic price. Normal people will not pay as much for a snake as they paid for there car, motorcycle, boat, etc. Until then, it will be breeder supporting breeders.

For a quick reference, look at Wal-Mart. They are one of the highest grossing companies in the world.....they sell a lot for cheap....its all about how much you sell. Look at car dealerships, a salesman may sell one S500 for 100k in Jan, if he doesn't sell again till March he will loose his job. Products need to turnover to profit.

*All statements are from a business or economic point of view. Nothing stated should be taken personally as I do not know anyone here personally. ;)

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Are BP morphs the next "dot.bombs"?

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That’s a great question … and my answer is “I sure hope so!”.

As someone that was intimately involved with the “dot com” craze of the late nineties, there are certainly a lot of similarities. People wanted in on a “money maker” and they threw money into starting internet companies just for the sake of “being a player”. There were scammers, get rich quick people, and people that just didn’t have any business running a company being given tens of millions of dollars in venture capital because they had a snappy power point presentation. In the end, the large majority of them failed. Not because the market wouldn’t support them, but because they just had no idea of how to run a business. When the dust cleared from the great “dot com” crash, there were and still are many successful internet companies standing that most people thought never had a chance; Amazon.com, Buy.com, MyWay.com, and the list goes on and on. There have also been new companies started since then like Google.com and MySpace.com. There are also many little known companies that have a thriving internet presence and are making good money. A close friend of mine makes $40,000.00 a year running a “brain teaser” puzzle site. The difference between the companies that survived and the companies that failed had absolutely nothing to do with “the market” and everything to do with knowing how to run a business. ANY BUSINESS (whether a dot com, bricks and mortar store, or ball python breeding operation) that does not have a solid business plan and that doesn’t understand things like marketing, advertising, sales, fiscal discipline, and everything else that traditionally goes along with running a business will sooner or later fail.

Just because you have a hundred, or a thousand, or ten thousand dollars to throw at a breeder for an investment morph does not mean that you are going to make a million dollars breeding ball pythons. Running a business is hard work that takes a certain amount of skill and dedication that many people just don’t have. Maintaining a large breeding colony of any reptile, let alone ball pythons, also takes a very high level of skill and dedication that most people can’t imagine. Just like the frenzied dot coms of the late 90’s, the fly by nighters in the ball python world will eventually fail. People that don’t want to do the work of running a business and only want to cash in on the big money being spent on morphs will eventually find it more and more difficult to operate in an over crowded market and they will move on to the next “hot thing” whether it be rainbow boas, ipod accessories, or jelly flavored cell phones. When the smoke clears, the people that are passionate, dedicated, professional, and actually want to run a business like a business will remain and we’ll all be better for it.

Just like the way the internet exists today, there will be room for ball python breeders on all levels to make as much or as little money as they would like- depending on the amount of hard and dedication that they want to put in. Similar to the way Google jumped on the internet scene and dominated everything they touched, there will be new breeders that rise up quickly and dominate the market. Alternatively, there will also be breeders like my friend with his “brain teaser” internet site that works a few hours a week and makes his 40K a year “on the side” and is perfectly happy with where his business is.

This cycle is nothing new … it happens over and over again in all kinds of business … as pointed out, it’s happened with internet companies, it’s also happened in the desktop computer market, it’s happened in the exotic bird market, the sports memorabilia market, and I am sure dozens more that I can’t just spit out off of the top of my head.

As far as ball pythons as an investment, I’m sorry but as someone that is actively invested in the stock market, bonds, and commodities I can tell you with great confidence that there is no better investment on the planet right now than ball pythons. On my initial $5,000.00 investment into ball pythons in 1996, I’ve managed a return of better than 5000%. That would be like a $150,000.00 house being sold for $7.5 million in 10 years. There is no IRA, stock, bond, or real estate investment that can give you a return like that.

If you’re going to invest in and breed ball pythons, then you’re running a business … act like it! Have a plan, research business practices, marketing, sales tactics, BE A BUSINESS PERSON …

… or, go up in smoke like the dot bombs.

-adam

there are some people with alot of money to spare that can have what they want. i was working at a guy's house today and he had a ferrari in the garage! if this guy was into herps, i'm sure he could have what he wanted/liked. alot of guys are into cars/boats/etc. and have alot of money invested. just depends on what you like!


vaughn

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Originally Posted by gamebred26

Yes but in the end there has to be a market for people buying these as pets....

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Why's that?

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Originally Posted by gamebred26

and I don't know one person who has a 10k snake let alone anything more then that...maybe a pastel...but I don't know anyone who has a lesser plat..clown...peid ....

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I know a few... some of them post on here quite regularly as a matter of fact. I actually know a guy who invested 45k in a snake... poor schmuck only got about a 400% return on his investment in the first six months he owned the animal.... and something tells me, his investment will still be paying off for quite some time to come...

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Originally Posted by gamebred26

yes breeders trade etc...but who is dumping cash for these snakes for pet purposes...with no intention to buy and breed to earn $$$ themselves...

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What makes you think that it all revolves around pure pets? There are plenty of people that buy quality dog breeds for quite a bit of money to just be family protectors, etc.. They have NO intention of breeding when they purchase the puppy... but somewhere down the road, quite a few people whelp a litter, and far be it from me, or you, or anyone else to tell them they can't sell the offspring and make a little dough in the process... or RECOVER some dough...(more like it).

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Originally Posted by gamebred26

It's just like baseball cards they ain't worth **** unless someone is willing to pay cash...
here is a test got try and trade your Lucy ball in for a 911...see what they say to you....

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I think if someone had a 911 that was worth only 70 or 80k, and I offered them a lucy for it... I think they'd jump at the chance. Its like you've clearly stated...

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Originally Posted by gamebred26

the value that people are putting these animals is insane....

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All it takes is a few people to actually SET a value, and sell an animal at that price... then it seems that the public is actually setting the value....

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Originally Posted by gamebred26

people are saying these are a good investment....not even close....

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Really? Crap! There are quite a few owners/hobbyists and breeders out there that will be crushed to hear that. You go ahead and keep sticking your money in your IRA that might earn you 5 or 6% a year, and when you're 80, you may be able to retire, and draw a little less than you currently make in order to pay for your Depends, and Ensure and in the mean time, there'll be others out there trying to better their life for themselves and their families and be able to actually spend some time later in their life enjoying it.

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Originally Posted by gamebred26

plus no body is buying them anyway...

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I'm not sure exactly what you mean by this... where are all these animals going then? I see adds on Kingsnake every day... I see available pages on websites with "SOLD" notices next to them... I talk to breeders that are getting packages ready to ship out.. and more importantly, I have animals WAITING to be shipped to me right now that have already been paid for. The only Lucy's that have ever been "offered" or "put up for sale" to my knowledge have been snatched up fairly quickly.. or WOULD be. What makes Bumblebee prices hover around 20-25k? Just so they can hold on to them and not wind up selling a single animal?? I don't get your point here at all.

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Originally Posted by gamebred26

if you are looking at this for a return you are kidding yourself....it's an expensive hobbby nothing more....

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I can think of some expensive hobbies that you'll NEVER see a dime from... a few of which I'm a big part of... Golf, Flying, collecting worthless trinkets and such..... But I'll tell you this... if one of my pastels breeds successfully for only 5 years, I will make a substantial return on my initial investment... not to mention have a fun expensive hobby that will wind up paying for itself. I can't play golf for free... or buy additional golf clubs for free... or put gas in a plane that I rent to go flying for free.... but if I had a commercial license, and I had some friends that wanted to go to Vegas, and I could charge them some money to do that, I could make up the cost of the plane, fuel, oil, maint, etc.. and maybe make enough to buy a sandwich when I got there.

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Originally Posted by gamebred26

but i hate when people say it's a good investment....

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Don't know of another one that has the potential for returns like I have seen and heard about.... Lets just take my normal females for example.. I bought them for $350 shipped to my door... 10 animals... $35 a piece. Do you think the very next day after I got them, that I couldn't put them up for $50 a piece, and sell 7 of them to make my money back? And what about if I hold on to them for about a year. Take a look on kingsnake to see what 1000g females are worth/going for.... Sounds like a pretty good investment to me.

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Originally Posted by bigboyslims

This is so simple to me being an economist. This is a very incestuous business. It is simply breeders (or wanna be breeders) who are keeping the prices high because they are the ones shelling out 10k for a snake. The breeders are supporting the other breeders with cash and trade. Just look at who is buying.

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This is what is frustrating me so badly... WHO CARES who's buying it... SOMEONE is... that's all that any business cares about. They're producing a product, SOMEONE is paying for it... does it really matter if it's not the guy down the street? Or is it acceptable that it could be someone on the other side of the world?

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Originally Posted by bigboyslims

Until then, it will be breeder supporting breeders.

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According to gamebred26, anyone who buys a morph is a breeder even if they "think" about breeding any time in the future... so this makes sense to me... Breeders support breeders... software guys support hardware guys... businesses support customers... seems pretty logical..

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Originally Posted by bigboyslims

For a quick reference, look at Wal-Mart. They are one of the highest grossing companies in the world.....they sell a lot for cheap....its all about how much you sell

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Okay.. now lets look at Petco... they buy Ball Pythons from importers for (???) probably around $15 a piece... then they turn around and sell them for $79 a piece... They get shipments in every Tuesday... and they always get new BP's... seems like they're moving them just fine...

Then lets look at RDR... he has over 1000 BP's in his collection... He produced 125 clutches in 2005.... (that the general public knows about)... a few clutches went bad... a few had smaller output than others... but lets just average 4 eggs a piece... that's 500 babies... Take a look at his available page... how many animals do you see for an AVERAGE price of WHAT?

The idea that the market will some day lose some of it's luster, or current value is a given... but the idea that something new will come along.. a new morph will be imported and reproduced, and lots of time spent doing research and growing projects will still be thriving for many years to come.

As Adam said... you're DANG right I hope this has the POWER of the dot.bomb era.... I was IN and WORKING IN the heart of the valley during that era... and the power was NUTS... the money was NUTS... and everyone wanted a piece... if that happens (on a much, much smaller scale) here, there's no one that wouldn't stand to benefit from it!

Great Posts Adam and Ken!!! :handshake

You two said it all.

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Originally Posted by bigboyslims

This market will only crash when it is flooded.

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I cannot say this will not happen, but its definately not going to happen any time soon. Even with a bunch of people buying snakes to breed. They still are not going to have the experience or capital that some of these big breeders have. They will ALWAYS be play catch up, unless they have a buttoad of money to invest, and then they still will be playing catch up with reputations and things. There is one thing that could potentialy flood the market really quick, and that would be to successfully clone and mass produce these BPs like they do with Orchids, but then who would want snakes that look like everyone elses? I wouldn't. Sure I have bought clones of oprchidsm but to me its not the same things. The ones that bring in the doe are the unique ones.

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Originally Posted by bigboyslims

The big bucks will be made by the first guy able supply cool morphs at a realistic price. Normal people will not pay as much for a snake as they paid for there car, motorcycle, boat, etc. Until then, it will be breeder supporting breeders.

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Again this is not going to happen because as Adam and Ken both have said in another post. There will be a whole saler that will buy up those snakes and resell them for the higher price because that is the market value placed on those snakes at the moment. Really nothing that can be done about it right now with the inelastic supply curve that is apparently there. Plus not many "mills" produce high quality snakes so why buy those? Look at the case of puppy mills. Not many if any of those pups will ever win a dog show. The puppy market for qigh quality show winning dogs still command a high price and will continue to for a long time.

Your also correct it is breeders supporting bredders at this time. The ammount of snakes is so small that this is only obvious. Remember BP morphs are still in their infancy. Also do you buy your supplies from straight from the maker? No you buy it from like the 3rd or 4rth owner of that good sometimes. Most manufacturers do not sell to the public, and I am sure that once the time is right the big breeders like RDR and VPI may start doing the same thing. Then again maybe they will not, but right now you are absolutely correct Many of their snakes do go to breeders, but I would assume not all do. You have to start someplace!!

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Originally Posted by bigboyslims

For a quick reference, look at Wal-Mart. They are one of the highest grossing companies in the world.....they sell a lot for cheap....its all about how much you sell.

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I think I should chime in here too. LOL I was convinced by Adam that selling a bunch of snakes cheap to try to lower prices was a bad idea. First of all it woudn't work. I am going to start with the Walmart reference. The snake business CANNOT work like walmart does. Hell I have only had Micro Econ in College and I know that. There is not an endless supply of goods like walmart has. They buy from the suppliers who are producing an almost endless supply of goods. Your not going to be able to do that with these morphs. Not yet anyways. The supply curve hasn't shifted out far enough yet to do that. Plus the demand for snakes is relatively inelastic to say the least. No matter the demand right now there prices are staying relatively the same. It is going to take a whole LARGE increase in capital (Morph snakes) to shift the demand curve out far enough for them to be able to act like walmart. The supply of breeding stock is just to limited at the moment.

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Originally Posted by bigboyslims

*All statements are from a business or economic point of view. Nothing stated should be taken personally as I do not know anyone here personally. ;)

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Nothing you said was taken personaly, but I do have one question though. Where did you learn your econ from? Because first of all the market is still so small that it is able to act as a monopoly. And if you have the Econ backgound you say you do you will know that even though its acting like a monopoly they still cannot set the price. The price is still basicly still set by the market of the good. The Walmart stratigy is a market stratigy to outprice their competitors so they can be the one on top. They make pennies on the dollar. Small to average sized comapanies cannot afford to do that because they move less volume. Animal sellers should never take that aproach. Its apperant for the condition of alot of puppy mills it shouldn't be done. Its obvious that the snakes are not being over-priced because the snakes being sold are young juvinile snakes. They are not sitting at the breeders waiting to be sold. I have been doing my reading for only a couple of months and can see that. Even when the market does drop down to resonable prices for the basic morphs then people will still pay top dollar for the extraordinary basic morphs just like folks do with dogs. Its just has not gotten that far along yet. As someone said this whole morph game has only been going on for about 15 years. This is still in its infancy. Heck do a seach for a puggle ad see how much those dogs are going for. Its rediculos, but hey there is a market because people are buying those and they cannot even be entered into shows because they are not an AKC breed!!! I consider a puggle a mutt but there are people willing to pay 1500 for one. That is more than my mother paid for her minpin. Oh and BTW that just basicly a morph of a the dochshund. It ws bread to look like a doberman. Now I duno if there is one, but if there was a club like the AKC for BP and other herps then the awarded bloodlines could also command a higher price than the regular morphs, but this is likely to be later down the road after the bloodlines thin out a bit and not as much line-breeding is needed to maintain and produce these morphs.


When I first got here. I too was disapointed these spectacular morphs cost so much, but I didn't realize things were so new either. That was ignorance on my part. I had the debate on doing something to lower the prices, but quickly realized what I said earlier. The marke sets the price so why not ride with it. I was green with envy that I cannot own a platty or lucy yet, but maybe one day. I vented my frustrations out just like I feel most of the naysayers of the market are doing too. I have come around and realized that if everyone had them they woudln't be worth the money they are worth at the moment. Then not as many people would want them either. Then the market will go bust if EVERYONE produced inexpencive porphs. Because that would mean that everyone would have them and alot of people would want to get ahold of something different.

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Where did you learn your econ from? Because first of all the market is still so small that it is able to act as a monopoly. And if you have the Econ backgound you say you do you will know that even though its acting like a monopoly they still cannot set the price.

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You might want to study some more about monopolies before the midterm....This market shows no sign of a monopoly.

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Originally Posted by bigboyslims

You might want to study some more about monoplies before the midterm....This market shows no sign of a monoply.

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Oh, and there's a spelling exam on Thursday... don't be late!

I'll be there 5 minutes early? I fixed it for you, teach. Full credit?

lol... EXTRA credit! :)

Take it easy, kids or I'll have you outside beating the chalk dust out of the erasers.



If they still use chalk that is.

Umm.. HELLOOOO (in my best impression of a valley girl voice) It's WHITE BOARDS NOW... DUH!! lol

We can't be poisoning our children with chalk dust now can we!? We'll use highly toxic markers instead that release fumes that say right on the marker "do not inhale"... And we'll use chemicals to clean said white board at the end of every day...

In conclusion, that is why white boards will be the next dot.bomb... The end!

(Sorry, had to keep my post on topic) ;)

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Originally Posted by Smulkin

Take it easy, kids or I'll have you outside beating the chalk dust out of the erasers.



If they still use chalk that is.

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Pretty much nothing but huge Dry Erase boards at VCU now...much easier to read!



I was holding out on posting in this thread, ddbjdealer and adam pretty much summed up my point of view on it...threads like this just make me think a little about why I'm really in this. I'm not here to make money. When I got my first ball, that thing was so beautiful and interesting and everything else all at once. As I ventured further down the rabbit hole, all the possibilities of color mutations and such jumped out an punched me in the face. I've got a little pastel project going now with a 1.5 group, and I hope to eventually make a super. Why? Cause supers are freakin' awesome looking! In addition, do you really think I'd even consider selling that first super? HECK NO! I want it all to myself!

Someone on here started throwing economics terms around saying balls were a bad investment, I have one thing to say: Before you call yourself an "economist," go back to your 101 notes and review the principles surrounding price elasticity of demand. The business people who are smart enough to hang around long enough and provide animals at the right prices will be very successful financially regardless of how bad the prices "bomb" in comparison to what they are now.

DEMAND..... enough said...what kind of demand is there for a 10-30K plus snake...for a pet ....none...


So low end would seem to sell easier...right?..pastels...albinos....etc.

Okay...everyone and there sister is breeding those...prices are dropping...you can get a pastel male now for under $500 some places...breed it to your normal females....and the market is flooded....

How many pinstripes...fire.....ivory..bumblebee....clown....are being sold for cash as pets? ...to an "end user".....not many...

I do not know one non breeder who owns any of those morphs....

and the ones that do all traded animals for animals...or animals plus a little cash....

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Originally Posted by gamebred26

DEMAND..... enough said...what kind of demand is there for a 10-30K plus snake...for a pet ....none...

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What is your obsession with "for a pet"? How about this question... How much demand is there for a $12000 trained German Shepherd or Lab as a Police/Seeing Eye/Service Dog to the general public as a pet? Not much I would assume. But does that mean that dog schools aren't still pumpin these highly trained, and highly smart animals out... to THOUSANDS of people on waiting lists, and police departments?

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Originally Posted by gamebred26

So low end would seem to sell easier...right?..pastels...albinos....etc.

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Depends on who's buying them I guess.

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Originally Posted by gamebred26

Okay...everyone and there sister is breeding those...prices are dropping...you can get a pastel male now for under $500 some places...breed it to your normal females....and the market is flooded....

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You're still not grasping the whole "Geo Metro vs Porshe 911" $500/$1500 price difference in the animals you'll pick up for $500. Do you think that the "average" person will buy that $500 animal, raise it up to breeding size, and eventually breed it to another pastel.. make a super, and sell it for cheap cause they got their animal for cheap?

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Originally Posted by gamebred26

How many pinstripes...fire.....ivory..bumblebee....clown....are being sold for cash as pets? ...to an "end user".....not many...

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Not trying to beat a dead horse here... but if I want $20k for my bumblebee.. and Joe buys it for use in his breeding program, whats the difference if I want $20k for it, and John buys it for use purely as a pet? If I wind up with $20k in my pocket... I don't think the market really cares (other than the animal's health) who it's going to, or what they're going to be using it for.

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Originally Posted by gamebred26

I do not know one non breeder who owns any of those morphs....and the ones that do all traded animals for animals...or animals plus a little cash....

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Okay.. maybe this will help out a little bit. I got into this a very short time ago. I bought a BP form a pet store for my girlfriend. I didn't care, I didn't touch.. all I did was feed because she couldn't handle the feeding aspect. Then I started to do some research, and now I have 15 BP's, and a plan for three times that many before I ever experience a breeding. I don't own any of the super-high dollar morphs, but I have spent an INSANE amount of money getting started in the long process of raising up females.. and yes.. I intend to breed. But my orriginal BP was bought without that intention.

I've been in several Doctor's/Lawyer's offices that have large saltwater setups.. with thousands of dollars in fish/ocean life in them. What's to say that in 10 years, there won't be a couple of very nice morphs sitting in the office waiting room. It's an extreme waste of cash in my opinion... but so is the ferarri in the parking garage across the street....Doesn't mean I don't want one though!

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Originally Posted by gamebred26

DEMAND..... enough said...what kind of demand is there for a 10-30K plus snake...for a pet ....none...

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What is your hang up on this "pet" thing? Anyone spending 10k -30K on a snake is making an investment ... just like buying stocks, or bonds, or commodities. They are investing the money on the speculation that the cash outlay will result in financial gain. Does anyone buy shares of Google because they need a piece of paper?

That said, the DEMAND for snakes in that price range is HUGE. Everyone I know operating at the higher end in this business has shelled out that kind of CASH many times over. I know I certainly have (and have made it all back too! ;) )

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Originally Posted by gamebred26

Okay...everyone and there sister is breeding those...prices are dropping...you can get a pastel male now for under $500 some places...breed it to your normal females....and the market is flooded....

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You must be fairly new to the businesses of high end animals and investing. I've been around ball pythons for many many years and every year people run around like chickens with their heads cut off yelling about how the market is about to be flooded and that prices are crashing, etc .... It seems to me that most of those people don't even own morphs and are more trying to convince themselves that they aren't stupid for passing on an opportunity to make money.

The reality is that of course as supply increases the price comes down, but if you read and understood my original post on this thread, you would realize that in any business venture that is a possibility. A smart business person diversifies their revenue streams and plans for the future. If you were making good money selling pastels and your margins are starting to decline, you adapt, you start producing super pastels that are still selling for $5,000 - $7,000 each (not bad for a market that is flooded eh??). The person that invests in something like a pastel or an albino and just sits on their a$$ while prices naturally go down and cries about it really had no business investing in morphs in the first place. I said it before and I'll say it again ... If you're going to invest in ball python morphs to breed and sell than you are a business owner ... ACT LIKE IT!

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Originally Posted by gamebred26

How many pinstripes...fire.....ivory..bumblebee....clown....are being sold for cash as pets? ...to an "end user".....not many...

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Why would they be? Your logic is lost on everyone that is reading this thread. These animals are being sold as INVESTMENTS. To use your car analogy, how many Ferrari Enzo Coupes are being sold as daily drivers for $645,000 a pop? None. To compare high end investment ball pythons to “pets” just doesn't make sense.

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Originally Posted by gamebred26

I do not know one non breeder who owns any of those morphs....

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Do you know why? Because if someone spent that kind of money on a snake and didn't breed it and produce offspring in order to capitalize on the hottest animal market in history they would be an IDIOT. ;) .... People that have that kind of cash to drop on an animal aren't dopes ... they have that kind of disposable income because they know how to make money ... so when they buy and investment animal, that's what they do .... MAKE MONEY.

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Originally Posted by gamebred26

and the ones that do all traded animals for animals...or animals plus a little cash....

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Trades, cash, it's all part of the business. If you're really a student of the industry and have a little bit of business sense about you, what you'd actually pay attention to is the money flow into and out of the ball python trade. Every year NEW MONEY comes into ball pythons ... it seems like every summer we see a new upstart breeder or two that invested big dollars for their morphs and are beginning to make a name for themselves ... because they had no animals to start with, these people didn't trade for their animals, they spent money .... the other thing to look at is people leaving the hobby .... How many high end collections have gone up on the classifieds in their entirety in the last 10 years? ... I can think of one maybe two. Every year people are spending money to get in and then spending more money/trading in order to stay in and grow their businesses … AND NO ONE IS LEAVING! This is a positive trend that cannot be ignored. The ball python market is strong and people are making a lot of money!!

It seems to me, the only people that are crying about the market are the people that don't have the balls (aka ball pythons) to be in it. :twisted:

-adam

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Originally Posted by gamebred26

It's just like baseball cards they ain't worth **** unless someone is willing to pay cash...

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Whether someone is willing to pay exuberant amounts of money for a snake or not does not make them worth "deleted expletive." I know many people personally for whom snakes are their entire world. They would give their lives up to them before any human beings.

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Originally Posted by gamebred26

the value that people are putting these animals is insane....

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And why shouldn't they? Some people dream of buying an expensive car or a home, while others dream of buying that wonderful morph.

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Originally Posted by gamebred26

plus no body is buying them anyway...

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Just because you do not know anyone who has bought one does not mean that someone out there doesn't own one or won't be willing to shell out the money to acquire one.

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Originally Posted by gamebred26

if you are looking at this for a return you are kidding yourself....it's an expensive hobbby nothing more....

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Ok just because you think that paying large sums of money for a snake is ridiculous does not mean that you can dictate the same terms to someone else. Judging from the contents of the post you seem to think that everyone else should be thinking the same way as you do. Learn to respect peoples boundaries and more importantly their passions.

gamebred26's posts seem to be similar to a topic I was reading over at another place. Anybody else feel me *cough*.

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Originally Posted by bigboyslims

You might want to study some more about monopolies before the midterm....This market shows no sign of a monopoly.

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Nah bro no need to study anymore I already busted an A in the class. I must have known a little about what I am talking about. When you have a small number of producers of a good in a world market they can act as a monopoly. There does not have to be just one seller of a good for that particular market to act as a monopoly. Besides being a monopoly isn't a bad thing if it was acting like one. Because as I said before even if the market is a monopoly they still cannot dictate any price. The market is only going to pay so much for a good, and its obvious BPs are not overpriced. Since they are selling then the prices are good. Who knows there may be some unrealised income in some of the morphs.


I think BPs are a good investment, and awsome hobby. I'm not estatic about shelling out that kind of cash to start with, but with a good breeding program that money can be recouped. I have no doubt with this global market we are in. There is no boundries with the internet.

Might I add that even though many people are getting into breeding there will probably never be such a thing as a "common" morph...

Sure, for those who know ball pythons at a level slightly higher than as a basic pet owner (ie people who read about their animals on sites like this!) will know that while albino BP's are the most common, they are not everywhere in the pet trade and they are not exactly cheap....

I would like an Albino BP, prices are higher here in England though, so I will wait till my hets are old enough and breed my own....!

My other point, one I didnt really notice being made was that demand always seems to outstrip supply because BP clutches are not very large.....

just my .02 as i suddenly took interest in ball pythons with my GF's snake...

i dont think gamebred26 has ever heard of hollywood... the place where people will buy snakes for just show....

also, i wouldnt say that morphs are the driving profit.

its like going to a Chevy dealer, they want to make money. so the up the price of a Corvette Z06 to 105k (MSRP of 65) to drive foot traffic because they have one in stock, and are the only one in the area. now, they have people coming in JUST to look at that car. while there, they realise, hey they offer nice cheaper cars... like a normal BP. or a more inexpensive morph... and they purchase that on a whim... how much profit is in that cheaper car? not as much, but because they have the more expensive item, they just got a "conquest" sale, or a sale to someone who just wanted to see a snake, but ended up buying one.

morphs i dont feel will ever be the DRIVING force, the nomals will always be cheap and easy to sell. and thats what you need. the $40 snakes, that cost $10 to breed, and then you just have a $30 profit, which you sell say 30 of a quarter, thats just 3600 a year on cheap ones.

im assuming with a large collection you can obviously have more than 30 normal BP's a quarter.

i kind of get your drift, but raising and breeding and selling takes more $$$ and hard work and PATIENCE than you think.


vaughn

This is a crazy discussion, I think it is obvious that breeders are buying now, they have to in order to continue to come up with new morphs and add to their collection. You do realize breeders have snakes that they dont sell? That they use primarily for breeding, and keep year after year.... they may not be a pet per-say, but they are part of their personal collection.... so they might as well be.

I plan on getting into breeding to start a collection if I make money, I will probably turn around and put it back into the BP market.... I know a TON of people who havnt been introduced to ball pythons, let alone their morphs... people who see their morphs don't even realize that such color/patterns can be produced....

Eventually prices will go down, 30k is crazy for a snake, but not when you can use it to create a whole line of snakes that are then sold to create another line.... but when prices go down to $500 for a lot of the morphs (already nearly has for pastel males), then you dont think people will buy them?

$500 is a lot for a pet to some people, but to others their dog cost 2k, their cat 750, and a unique pet for $500 isnt a stretch.


I don't see this 'dot.com" dying down until the majority of morphs and combinations have been explored (which should take a while)... however I was not involved in this when the economy went down, which would probably stifle interest among smaller time breeders/new to the game people who don't have extra money to try something on the side

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Originally Posted by Nourdmrolnmt1

also, i wouldnt say that morphs are the driving profit.

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As someone that breeds and sells ball pythons, I would say the exact opposite. Morphs are my profit. I don't breed to produce normals, the margins are too low and they take up valuable room that I need to house morphs. The lower end animals that I produce as a result of co-dominate morph breeding are a hassle to try and sell because my entire business is geared towards selling investment animals, not pets ...and you know what? Business is GOOD! ;)

Use your chevy analogy and imagine that everyone that visits that car lot is begging to buy a corvette ... how long do you think it will be before the dealer starts looking for ways to get rid of the cheaper cars quickly so that he/she can start filling the lot with corvettes?

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Originally Posted by Nourdmrolnmt1

morphs i dont feel will ever be the DRIVING force, the nomals will always be cheap and easy to sell. and thats what you need. the $40 snakes, that cost $10 to breed, and then you just have a $30 profit, which you sell say 30 of a quarter, thats just 3600 a year on cheap ones.

im assuming with a large collection you can obviously have more than 30 normal BP's a quarter.

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$10 to breed? LMAO! Do you have any idea what it takes to feed a ball python 52 weeks a year? How about rent for a commercial breeding facility because 500 ball pythons won't fit anywhere inside your house? Then there's payroll, utilitiy bills, vet bills, and then TAXES!!!!! Not to mention that selling normal ball pythons for $40 each when the CH imports are coming in for $7 - $10 each isn't a whole lot of fun! Sorry, but I don't know anyone that wants to work as hard as it takes to maintain a ball python colony (we're talking hundreds and hundreds of animals) just to produce normals.

The demand for MORPHS is strong!

-adam

Maybe just a little tale from a nobody who hasn't bred her first snake yet but faced a decision about making a major profit percentage.


This past year my husband and I came upon two large ball pythons at a pet store - surrendered pets. Had them sexed and vetted - $34.00 total. Both females were in decent condition and either of or close to breeding weight. Total purchase cost - $135.00 for both. That's a total out-of-pocket of $169.00

Within a very few short months of feeding, female #1 was 2200 grams, female #2 was 1700 grams. Right in time for breeding season. Now I've posted pics of those big girls here, and Adam please chime in if you don't mind, but even I know with my limited knowledge of the ball python market that Mike and I could have sold those females for a very very tidy and reasonably quick profit. Heck I doubt I'd have even had to take an ad out at kingsnake since I know a few folks here that would have happily lined up for Brannagh and Orlah.

Now, why didn't we sell the females in question. We had very little actual cash invested in them as far as purchase price and housing/feeding costs to that point. Because we are NOT in it for the short haul and we've come to realize that short-term thinking in the snake business (and heck in most businesses) is exactly what contributes to failure. We could have sold the two snakes and pocketed that quick profit happily but come the next breeding season we'd be the ones ohhhhing, ahhhhing and kicking our butts over the clutches those females produced.

So I can't speak to the morph market issues but I can speak to the value of normal females that one either raises or acquires as sub-adult/adult. Their value is high, and it only gets higher every week that female eats, gains weight and approaches her breeding years (which are longer than pretty much any other bred for profit animal I can think of).

I'm no economy major (heck balancing a check book scares the willies out of me LOL) but if breeding stock values strongly, then common sense tells me it indicates a strong market for their resultant offspring which are equal to or "better" than the female in look or genetic make-up (in the case of hets). Make sense or am I just a lil dillusional chick in northern MI with illusions of snakey grandeur? LOL


~~Jo~~

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Originally Posted by Adam_Wysocki

As someone that breeds and sells ball pythons, I would say the exact opposite. Morphs are my profit. I don't breed to produce normals, the margins are too low and they take up valuable room that I need to house morphs. The lower end animals that I produce as a result of co-dominate morph breeding are a hassle to try and sell because my entire business is geared towards selling investment animals, not pets ...and you know what? Business is GOOD! ;)

Use your chevy analogy and imagine that everyone that visits that car lot is begging to buy a corvette ... how long do you think it will be before the dealer starts looking for ways to get rid of the cheaper cars quickly so that he/she can start filling the lot with corvettes?



$10 to breed? LMAO! Do you have any idea what it takes to feed a ball python 52 weeks a year? How about rent for a commercial breeding facility because 500 ball pythons won't fit anywhere inside your house? Then there's payroll, utilitiy bills, vet bills, and then TAXES!!!!! Not to mention that selling normal ball pythons for $40 each when the CH imports are coming in for $7 - $10 each isn't a whole lot of fun! Sorry, but I don't know anyone that wants to work as hard as it takes to maintain a ball python colony (we're talking hundreds and hundreds of animals) just to produce normals.

The demand for MORPHS is strong!

-adam

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i was throwin in random numbers.

however, in theory, if you were given a B&M shop (not sure if you have one or not) you could have a beautiful Morph on display, and not want to sell it, however if you put a price of 100K on it, im sure people wouldnt want to buy it, but it would increase foot traffic, this is something that my Z06 post was referring too.

increased foot traffic typically gets more business "hey honey, while were here, we may as well pick up..."

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Originally Posted by Nourdmrolnmt1

i was throwin in random numbers.

however, in theory, if you were given a B&M shop (not sure if you have one or not) you could have a beautiful Morph on display, and not want to sell it, however if you put a price of 100K on it, im sure people wouldnt want to buy it, but it would increase foot traffic, this is something that my Z06 post was referring too.

increased foot traffic typically gets more business "hey honey, while were here, we may as well pick up..."

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Running a ball python morph breeding business is not in any way like running a retail store. You are selling a very specific product to very educated buyers. People don't just decide to spend 15k on a snake because you have a 100k leucistic on your website ... that's just not how it works.

-adam

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Originally Posted by Adam_Wysocki

Running a ball python morph breeding business is not in any way like running a retail store. You are selling a very specific product to very educated buyers. People don't just decide to spend 15k on a snake because you have a 100k leucistic on your website ... that's just not how it works.

-adam

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im not saying that.

if you have a pet shop, that specializes in BP's, but has other animal things in it... dog food, cat food, mice, etc. there is the walk in ability of that.

B&M also refers to brick and motar.. so i was assuming you have a shop other than internet.

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Originally Posted by Nourdmrolnmt1

im not saying that.

if you have a pet shop, that specializes in BP's, but has other animal things in it... dog food, cat food, mice, etc. there is the walk in ability of that.

B&M also refers to brick and motar.. so i was assuming you have a shop other than internet.

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I don't think we're quite at that stage in the game yet...ball python morphs haven't hit "impulse buy" status with the general public that is unfamiliar with them. The morph "impulse buyers" have typically done a decent amount of research & choose to strike while the iron is hot if the deal appeals to them.

We do have a store, and in my experience thus far the only folks who inquire about morphs either A) know what they're after, or B) ask about albino ball pythons & are then shocked at the sticker price, since they're accustomed to seeing $150 albino Burmese at every Joe Blow pet depot.

Just my $.02

K~

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Originally Posted by Nourdmrolnmt1

B&M also refers to brick and motar.. so i was assuming you have a shop other than internet.

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You seem to be making a lot of assumptions. Have you done any actual research into whats going on in the ball python morph market?

-adam

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Originally Posted by Adam_Wysocki

You seem to be making a lot of assumptions. Have you done any actual research into whats going on in the ball python morph market?

-adam

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it seems to be largely internet based currently.