Piebald probability help?

Hi, first off I'd like to say thanks in advance as I've received lots of help here before. Ok, I have two snakes and am a little perplexed on the genetic probabilities. My male is a coral glow 66% possible het pied. My female is a yellowbelly 100% het pied. I'm not as concerned as to which morph they will be as I am the piebald. Assuming I have good luck I'd get some pieds. But if I'm not lucky what would they turn out to be, piebald possibility wise. 50%?, 75%? I've done the morph calculator on morph market but I'm still confused. Thankyou


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Worse case is 50% het pied

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Originally Posted by Mofire

Hi, first off I'd like to say thanks in advance as I've received lots of help here before. Ok, I have two snakes and am a little perplexed on the genetic probabilities. My male is a coral glow 66% possible het pied. My female is a yellowbelly 100% het pied. I'm not as concerned as to which morph they will be as I am the piebald. Assuming I have good luck I'd get some pieds. But if I'm not lucky what would they turn out to be, piebald possibility wise. 50%?, 75%? I've done the morph calculator on morph market but I'm still confused. Thankyou


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So your male is 66% het pied. That means he's not guaranteed to be het for pied -- it's just a possibility. If he proves out pied, that will make him 100% het pied.

100% het pied x 100% het pied = 25% visual piebald, and the rest will be 66% possible het pied, like your male. That means 50% of the non-visual pied baby's will be het for pied, and the remaining 25% will not be het for pied.

If he proves to NOT be het for pied, all you will get are 50% possible het pieds.

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If you hatch pieds in the clutch than your male coral glow is 100% het pied which would make all the babies 66% het pied. If you don't hatch any pieds in the clutch than it's not entirely over but I wouldn't sell the babies as anything other than 50% het pied. Once the father proves to be het pied you can classify them as 66% het pied if you still have them by then. Hope that helps!

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Alright so, what 66% means: 2 het pieds were bred together, the end result being a probability of 25% of offspring being pied, 50% being het pied, and 25% being normal.

Now the 25% pied is obvious, so remove that, leaving us with 3 options, 2 of those three being het pied. This means the end result is a 66% (2/3 of 100%) probability of the normal looking offspring being pied.

But in reality, 66% likelihood of a het pied is nonsense for the genetics of the snake. The snake either is or is not het pied, it's bianary. The only way to know for certain that the snake actually is het pied is to prove it out by breeding (in other words it has to produce pie bald offspring).

So, either your offspring will be 50% Het Pieds if there are no pied offspring from that pairing, or if there are (in regards to pied) pied offspring you will end up with pieds and 66% possible pieds.

If he does not prove there will be ZERO pied and all animals produced will be considered 50% Hets.

That being said I would not dismiss the male until he sires at least 3 clutches with that female.

If you produce 17 offspring from the pairing in total there is less than a 1% chance of not producing a pied IF the male actually is het pied.

10 offspring there is a 5.6% of not producing a pied offspring.
11 is 4.2%
12 is 3.2%
13 is 2.4%
14 is 1.8%
15 is 1.3%
16 is 1.0%

The determination of giving up is up to you, personally after about 10 offspring I would consider the likelihood remote. But if you produce 17 or more offspring the likelihood of you just not having any pied offspring is so remote that I would advise against continuing to try for just about anyone

Ok I think I understand a little better now. So assuming h doesn't prove out, would I be able to breed any of his offspring together? They would be 50% chance, correct? What about back to Mom as she's definitely a het? Thanks everyone


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You could but that's a loooong way and gamble

It's always best to start out with 100% hets or the visual gene that has a 100% het status behind it. However it's always nice when a 66% het proves out.

There are four possible matings of a pair of 50% probability het pieds:
1. male not het pied x female not het pied.
2. male not het pied x female het pied.
3. male het pied x female not het pied.
4. male het pied x female het pied.

Only mating 4 can produce pied babies. So there is a 25% chance of selecting two het pieds from a batch of normal-looking 50% probability het pieds.

There are two possible matings of a 50% probability het pied male to a het pied female:
1. male not het pied x female het pied.
2. male het pied x female het pied.

Only mating 2 can produce pied babies. So there is a 50% chance of selecting a het pied male from a batch of normal-looking 50% probability het pied males.

Mating a 50% probability het pied to a het pied gives much better odds (50% vs. 25%) of getting pied babies. By the way, 100% het pied is a long way of writing het pied.

My own opinion is the swapping your 50% probability het pieds for someone else's 50% probability het pieds minimizes the inbreeding and makes for better genetic health long term. Perhaps even better would be swapping several 50% probability het pieds for an unrelated het pied male.